I’ve been rich, and I’ve been poor, and believe me, rich is better Sophie Tucker
Y’all know me, I like to keep things light and lively. Mostly, I write about an individual issue or event, and spice it up. But this article is going to be a little deeper than that, dealing with a broader issue. But since I have boring myself every bit as much as I hate boring you, I’ll try to keep it moving.
When you cover any one kind of activity over a long period, you start to get a natural feel for the ebb and flow of the process. In politics, we have two parties, Democratic and Republican, liberal and conservative. You sit back and watch them eye gouge, knee groin, elbow punch, and hair pull their way to an agreement. Welcome to politics.
But when you watch politics for a long time, as I have, you can start to see something more. There are times, when you can just tell, but the ebb and flow of the process, and by the final results, when one party starts to become ascendant, and the other party begins to flail around. And this is one of those times.
Time for some quick, short history lessons. In 2018, the GOP took a serious electoral bath. They lost 40 House seats, and failed to increase their Senate majority by an appreciable margin, despite the heavy GOP tilt to the electoral map. When they lost, unlike any previous party in electoral history, the GOP entrenched. They blamed the loss on massive voter fraud, illegal aliens, and Democratic chicanery. At no time did they ever admit that their President was wildly unpopular, their messaging sucked, and they had no viable platform to run on. But why did they lose in the first place?
When the Democrats lost the 2016 election, it was a crushing blow. The race was supposed to be in the bag, and nobody could believe when Vlad the Imp managed to micro target enough individual districts in key swing states to give the electoral college to Trump. What did they do? Of course, we mourned, all of us. But what did we do then?
They locked and loaded, and they mobilized. A group of heartbroken former Democratic capitol Hill staffers put their heads together, and they created the Indivisible Project. They looked back at all of the things that had fueled the Tea Party successes in 2010, and they updated and simplified it for every Democratic voter and activist to use for the 2018 midterms. They came up with a simple, concise, easy to use handbook for Democratic voters and activists to use to put pressure on GOP House and Senate members for 2018, and it worked. And the Democrats recruited like hell. Common, everyday citizens came out of the woodwork, putting their personal lives on hold to run to serve, and again, it worked. In spades.
In 2018, Democratic politician and activist Stacey Abrams got totally robbed and jobbed in her run for Georgia Governor. She got robbed because her opponent, Brian Kemp, was the sitting Secretary of State in Georgia, the office responsible for running the elections in Georgia, and he kept his finger on the thumb. Including purging 65,000 largely minority African American voters from the rolls when it was too late for the Democrats to respond. Abrams lost by fewer than the number of votes that had been purged.
In 2020, after the filthiest, most divisive, gutter wallowing campaign in American history, the people of the United States gave Donald Trump the Denver Boot.
That was the GOP response? After months of pre election threats and unfounded allegations that the election would be stolen from Trump, all the GOP did was to turn up the heat. They continued to insist that the election results were fraudulent, and whipped their more already unhinged followers into a frenzy. It all ended with a bloody insurrection within the hallowed halls of the US Capitol, in a failed attempt to stop the election results from being certified.
The Democrats response to their well earned 2020 victory? They mobilized. There is a new organization out there called Runforwhat.net. Like the organization that was set up by IL congresswoman Cheri Bustos several years ago, it provides granular detail, seminars, and support for candidates thinking about running for their first local, county, state, or statewide office. There have been more than 1200 enrollees for 2022 as we speak.
This is why I argue that the Democratic party is now ascendant, and will be for the foreseeable future.
The GOP is moribund. They are tied to an aging, less educated, scared, racist white base, and that isn’t going to get any better for them. The only thing that could save the party is an extreme makeover where the party becomes more tolerant of minorities young voters, and alternate lifestyles, and the GOP seems to be incapable of making that final break with their far right wing racist and fundamentalist Christian voters.
Meanwhile, the Democrats are churning full speed ahead towards modernization and inclusion. Keep one thing in mind. One of the main reasons that Virginia stayed red so long is that nobody would run against entrenched GOP incumbents. Indivisible changed all of that, and when Democrats started popping up and running, it turned out that most constituents didn’t like their current representatives all that much. And they’re just turning up the heat nationwide.
One more thing I want to address. Several of my readers, in various articles, readers have reminded me of the wicked evils of gerrymandering. But to be honest, that is already falling apart, and will only continue to get worse. As more rural states, especially southern states, strive to become more tech and manufacturing friendly, in order to increase their tax and income base, it will come with a cost. Because that influx of new industry will bring in an influx of younger, better educated, likely more liberal voters who will move into suburban districts that the GOP has tried to turn into an electoral bulwark. The GOP has no choice but to make a firewall of the suburbs, since there aren’t enough voters in cow county voters to offset the strength of the Democrats in the urban areas. Good luck with that.
Follow me on Twitter at @RealMurfster35
Another bang on correct article Murph. 100% right.
Sorry, I’m just cynical, and the reason goes right back to the GOP’s strength. No, not the fact that there are so many white conservative, religious and mostly racist old people, but the fact that you forgot the other group of GOP voters – grass, cows and sheep. Not to mention deer. The GOP controls more land than Ted Turner. Look at the Red on the map of the country from the 2020 election, and Biden won by 7 million votes! The Dems get the votes of people, but the GOP gets the vote of cows, grass, sheep and deer. Why is that important? Because them critters have two senators each and a ridiculously disproportionate number of electoral votes in comparison to their populations of actual voting humans. Until we give DC, Puerto Rico, the VI’s and maybe Guam, status as States, with two senators each to compete with all them senators serving populations smaller than most apartment blocks in New York and California, the US will NEVER have representation of the people by the people. It will remain far more representative of them Montana, Kansas, Dakota, Idaho and Iowa critters and blades of grass, than actual USA human citizens.
You speak from a place of 40 years of trauma, my friend, which I fear is distorting your thinking. It is worth mentioning that despite all that land you cited, we currently have the House AND Senate. Nor are the holders of such land immortal. Assuming a good many of them are in the Boomer age bracket (which is a fairly safe bet), they shall be leaving the stage in droves this decade. The ones they leave behind as spiritual successors have yet to prove their leadership chops anywhere. So I am less worried and you should be too.
I agree. Our enemy isn’t land. It’s cynicism.
Um, before you get all holier-than-thou on the population issue, bear in mind that, of the 10 least populated states, several of them served by 2 Democratic Senators each would also qualify as “populations smaller than most apartment blocks in New York and California.” (Granted, that statement is a serious exaggeration since Wyoming has a population of roughly 580,000 people; I’m not sure how many “apartment blocks in New York and California” have that many people.)
Vermont (the 2nd least populated state) currently has a population of about 620,000 people and is served by a Democrat and a Democrat-caucusing Independent. Delaware and Rhode Island (6th and 7th least populated) both have 2 Democrats in the Senate as do New Hampshire and Hawai’i (9th and 10th least populated). And Maine (8th least populated) is currently served by a GOPer and a Democrat-caucusing Independent. So, of the 10 least populated states with their 20 senators, we have 9 Democrats, 2 Democrat-caucusing Independents and 9 GOPers.
It’s also funny that you criticize Kansas and Iowa but Kansas is more populous than New Mexico and Iowa’s more populous than Nevada and Kansas and Iowa are far smaller than New Mexico and Nevada (Kansas and Iowa combined are about 15% and 10% larger than either New Mexico and Nevada respectively).
As for DC, the Virgin Islands and Guam, you’re criticizing those GOP-dominated states for their small populations but, if DC were an actual state, it would have the 3rd smallest population of all the states. The Virgin Islands currently have a population of about 100,000 people and Guam has about 170,000 people; both of them combined have less than half the population of Wyoming. Puerto Rico is the only prospect that would make any significant impact on the Senate but the Democratic and Republican parties don’t really have major impact on the territory’s current political scene; the major PR parties–the New Progressive Party and the Popular Democratic Party–don’t really line up neatly with the Democratic Party or the GOP (the PDP does tend to be more Democratic-leaning while the NPP–not the Puerto Rican initials–kind of splits between Democrats and GOPers). In fact, the current “Resident Commissioner” who acts as a non-voting delegate to the US House is a member of the New Progressive Party but she aligns with the Republican Party.
We as democratic folks have to keep the faith. There are many folks who are rooting and for everyone. Black and brown are due to get their say. Nuff said. Love ? you homes
The Democratic Party needs to push for Medicare for All. This has got to be the most tangible benefit that government can provide. It’s a We the People plan that covers everything medically from cradle to grave. The people of the US need this. President Uncle Joe put his thumbs up for disaster relief for Texas, after a few days when the leadership of Texas threatened to secede from the Union. President Joe’s leadership can muster the might of the office to promote Medicare for All.
I disagree. I think it’s way past time we stopped pushing Medicare for All as the best or only solution to health care. It is only one of many roads to universal affordable access, and it’s one that hasn’t been tried ANYWHERE in the world.
And it’s extreme and disruptive not only of the health care system but of the entire economy. We’d be experimenting with every aspect of people’s lives with no road map to guide us. We’d be nuking how people are hired and paid with no idea what the consequences might be. We’d be reinventing on the fly and blind not just how health care is paid for but how it’s delivered, how hospitals are structured, how medical personnel are trained and deployed and more. We’d face retraining an army of insurance personnel for jobs in a new system which would require not just years to do, but would also require developing systems to train them. We’d face years of shortages of health care while people were trained (we’d especially need more doctors) which would mean that wealthy folks would buy access and the less affluent would be shut out, simply because health care would’t be available, especially if some medical personnel opted to leave the profession for freer and more lucrative areas such as the financial market.
Even if it were remotely possible to pass such a radical overhaul of every aspect of American society over somewhat justified screams of “socialism,” the many years of glitch-filled roll-out would quickly destroy the party that pushed it. Look how many glitches there were in rolling out the much less radical Affordable Care Act and how that allowed the GOP to demonize Democrats and win back Congress.
Single-payer health care has failed in the handful of states that have tried it (including Vermont!) and those plans were nowhere near as radical as Medicare for All, which would put the entire country and its economy at the risk of catastrophic failure.
I also have to point out that some of the loudest voices pushing it don’t even know what it is and here I point my finger at Bernie Sanders. His sketchy health care issues page on his presidential campaign website (less than 500 words, compared to Biden’s nearly 5,000 and Warren’s 9,000) claimed it would have “no premiums, no co-pays, no deductibles.” Medicare has all of those things. He claims it would pay for vision, hearing, and dental. Medicare doesn’t. I believe this was bought up once either to him or one of his spokespersons and their response was “Well, it’s not really Medicare.” For something that would overturn every aspect of our lives, that’s an unacceptable answer.
I’ve been one of your “But gerrymandering” naysayers. I’ve also tossed in the ramped up voter suppression laws (lots of them in lots of states, not all of which are ruby red) with that warning. I still have those concerns but I do think that if we continue like we have been doing we can hold our own and even make some gains. Getting good candidates to run in every available race is huge. Howard Dean tried to get this going and all people wanted to do (and “people” included the Democratic establishment) was mock the “I have a scream speech” guy. It LOOKS like we’ve learned out lesson but as you say we need to keep things up and keep searching out and finding good candidates who are a good fit for the races they will be running in. In golf terms it’s called “horses for courses” which means certain golfer’s skills are particularly suited for some golf courses and that those same strengths are a disadvantage on others. As a lifelong liberal it pains me to say it but it means in some races we are going to have to accept candidates that we don’t love, or even like all that much. Candidates we can tolerate even if it takes some effort and forgiveness to do so. Liberals will have to accept that in some places moderate, or in a handful conservative leaning moderates and some disappointing votes on legislation are the price we pay for control. Moderates will have to accept that in some places liberal candidates are best, and more importantly accept that their pushing progressive policies is a good thing since on so many issues strong, even overwhelming numbers of Americans approve of the policies, even if they detest that it’s “libruls” pushing them. That’s where good messaging comes in, and people in all wings of the Party reining in their rhetoric a bit.
I too would like to see an expanded Senate which can happen with more states, and an expanded House of Representatives too. There should be close to six hundred (ideally closer to seven or even eight hundred) representatives to have a House that is more like the founders envisioned – small enough population wise to be “the People’s House.” As for the Senate, Puerto Rico should have been a state long ago as far as I’m concerned. I’m glad you mentioned the U.S. Virgin Islands too. And Guam, “Where America’s Day Begins.” (It’s the territory closest to the International Date Line. As William Manchester wrote in Goodbye Darkness the sun shines on the Stars & Stripes in Guam before anywhere else in the U.S.) DC is a tough one for me. It’s a city and not all that big of one at that. Not a state.
Having said that, and admitting that I’ve spent decades opposing DC statehood thinking that except for selected sections of federal property like the WH, the Capitol, the Mall and some of the memorials that should remain under federal control the rest should be treated like happened with Virginia. The original District was five miles on each side, but the portion on the Virginia side of the Potomac was ceded back to Virginia and residents there have had voting representation in the House and Senate ever since. So, why have I changed my mind on DC? Two reasons.
First, if the situation were reversed (and I’m looking back for longer than the last four years) given the imbalance in the Senate you noted the Republicans would do it to us in a heartbeat if they needed to even out the odds some. Hell, that’s why they’ve fought it so hard all along! It’s a sucky thing but the Senate was designed to give smaller (population wise) states which were mostly slave holding states outsized influence. A whole “prevent a tyranny of the majority” type of fig leaf but make no mistake. While a tiny state (both in size and population) like Rhode Island benefited from the design of the Senate the two per state regardless of population was a bone to the southern slave-holding states to get them to ratify the Constitution. I say that if they felt it was in their interests to make DC a state it’s because conservatives have proven in the past they will fight to add low population states to increase their influence. The whole westward expansion back in the 1800s was a chance for conservatives (mostly southern Democrats back then) to expand the number of slave holding states and not just preserve slavery but expand it. So I now say hell yes. Add DC as a state and rub it in their faces!
The other reason is that the population of DC is mostly African-American. The descendants of slaves. Slaves who BUILT so much of the city including and especially so many important symbols of our democracy like the WH and the Capitol! Having DC as a state, which would virtually guarantee not only two Democratic Senators but most of the time two non-white ones would be an in-your-face Republicans form of reparations for centuries of slavery and oppression. The more I think about it the more I like that thought. Republicans snicker over having states where for so long and for the foreseeable future a Democrat has NO chance of winning a Senate seat and when Manchin is done in WV they will have yet another. It would drive them bat-shit insane (just the thought of it already does) to have DC of all places that can not only be counted on to provide two Democrats but two NON-WHITE ones to the Senate. It might not be the noblest of reasons but from where I sit it’s a damned good one.
My biggest fear is our being worn out. And, if Biden manages to get things headed in the right direction by summer (or fall) our side getting even a little complacent and thinking “we’re on our way and we deserve a bit of a break to get ready for 2024. We can’t let that happen. Horrific legislation that will via gerrymandering and other forms of voter suppression (including stripping Democratic Governors of power, altering state Supreme Courts – in part by creating/expanding gerrymandering there too) is being for for by Republicans right now. Today. We can’t let up one bit.
On that wonderful night in 2008, in the midst of all that joy Obama tried to tell everyone that they should in fact feel great joy, but also that winning that election was the easy part. That the real, grinding hard work was just beginning and that it was going to take sustained effort for multiple elections to make the promise of that night become the reality everyone was hoping for. Sure enough he was right!
If not as eloquent as Obama (who is these days) Biden has been telling us the same thing. I sure as hell hope it take this time.
“And Guam, “Where America’s Day Begins.” (It’s the territory closest to the International Date Line. As William Manchester wrote in Goodbye Darkness the sun shines on the Stars & Stripes in Guam before anywhere else in the U.S.)”
Actually, American Samoa is the territory closest to the International Date Line–well, even more technically, Alaska is; the IDL doesn’t run along a straight line or line of longitude, but rather kind of zigs and zags roughly along the 180th degree of longitude. Guam sits roughly at 145° East longitude while American Samoa sits at roughly 170° West longitude. Guam is GMT +10 while American Samoa is GMT -11; when it’s noon Tuesday in New York City, it’s 3am Wednesday in Guam while, when it’s noon Tuesday in New York City, it’s 6am in American Samoa. (The independent country of Samoa which lies about 40 miles to the west of American Samoa is GMT +13–well, now it’s at GMT +14 since it’s on Daylight Saving Time–meaning on standard time, noon in NYC means Samoa’s at 5am Wednesday and on Daylight Saving Time, it’s 6am Wednesday.) Of course, because of the Earth’s curvature, Alaska has territory (the westernmost Aleutian Islands) that extends to 172° East longitude but the very westernmost of the US islands are only at GMT -10 (noon in NYC and it’s only 7 am on these islands, although there are fewer than 100 people living on them).
” It might not be the noblest of reasons but from where I sit it’s a damned good one.”
There is an even better — and nobler — reason for DC statehood. And it’s very simple. The citizens of DC — black, white, yellow, red, green or purple — do not enjoy and never have enjoyed political representation equal to the citizens of the 50 states. Why shouldn’t they? As for being a city and not even a particularly big one, DC has a larger population than Wyoming or Vermont. And incidentally, aside from being majority Black, it is also one of the most ethnically diverse cities in the United States.
Excellent piece Denis, but I need to correct your golf analogy: the phrase “horses for courses” derives from (you ready?) horse racing. Some race horses are more suited to some race courses than others. But I will concede that Trumpler’s suited to all golf courses: he can cheat on ’em all no problem.
That sound i hear is the chorus of trumpers whining like the evil souls in the movie Ghost, being dragged away into eternal darkness.
I saw an interview with the woman who started the progressive organization “Run for Something” which is aimed at recruiting new, progressive candidates at the local level. She said that since the 1/6 insurrection they have had over 2000 people sign up to enter politics. People are motivated!