This is a stop the presses moment, right here. J. Ann Selzer, who has a reputation for being the gold standard of pollsters, is reporting a statistic that, if true, is absolutely mind boggling. Tomorrow is the Republican caucus in Iowa and Selzer (and a number of other pollsters) have broken down the polling. Trump should clobber the other candidates with a 28% or better lead. (DeSantis limps at 16%, Haley’s at 20%, and Ramaswamy might pull 3% if he’s lucky.)
Those stats are pretty much across the board what the polling world is agreed upon. But Selzer has another statistic that she speaks of, and you are not hearing about this one. Go to 2:12 in this video, or better yet, listen to the whole thing. But 11% of the hardcore base, the caucus going base, the dyed in the wool Republicans, are openly declaring that they’ll vote for Joe Biden over Donald Trump. And that could swing it right there, folks. If Trump only has his MAGA cult and all the other Republicans decide if they can’t have Haley, DeSantis, anybody but Trump, then they’ll vote for Biden rather than Trump, then it is over for the Mango Messiah.
I wonder if Trumpty has heard about this. Because he will not be pleased. He wants and expects and demands total fealty.
What has clearly happened here is that the schism Trump has created in the Republican party is more and more clear. There are still some hard core, non MAGA Republicans out there. The big question is, will the non MAGA Republicans vote for Biden or will they roll over and vote for anybody with an R behind his name, including Trump?
Usually that’s the way it goes, Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line, goes the old adage. But if 11% of the hard core Republicans in Iowa, a deep red state, are saying they won’t fall in line, they’ll vote for the Democrat instead, that is something to sit up and take note of. Now here is Trump debunking not this specific stat, but stats relating to the size of MAGA.
25% registered voters=Republicans
11% of Republicans =MAGAS
89% of registered voters better NOT vote for Trump!! #BidenHarris2024 pic.twitter.com/dbWLX2qCdp— 🪴Laurie (@Laurieluvsmolly) January 14, 2024
If 11% of Republicans are MAGA and 11% of hard core Republicans are going to vote for Biden over Trump, then MAGA gets canceled out. I’m speculating here. As I’ve said before, I would not be a professional pollster for anything. It’s too hard in this day and age. We’ve seen wild variations in what’s predicted and what actually happens at the polls.
Still and all, I don’t believe MAGA is the entire Republican party. Although it has fallen apart enough to where that could be true.
strange that. surely the poll compensates for some
down right rabid false responses by diehard trumpo-magas.
hard telling, not knowing. (in a down-east Maine accent.)
would be sweet if true.
Yep. Given the choice between Trump and anyone else who is even remotely competent, by intelligent voters, means no vote for Trump.
Even Trump can’t lie enough to convince them, of course they’ll vote for Biden.
“A plurality of Haley supporters in Iowa, 43%, say they would vote for Biden instead of Trump.”
https://infogram.com/1p3e3e76vn320ws0l20039dg1yadqj0m9vg
👇🏻
Outvote the polls, people. I will.
I don’t have much faith in polls, but one thing I find significant is that although trump is leading the field, he hasn’t gotten much over 50 percent. Even after most of the clown car has emptied out, he hasn’t picked up much support. we also know at least some of his support is soft. I am not convinced that Republicons are planning on falling in line for him again
Mr. Kinzinger’s observation is spot on. Even though he is a member of the opposite party, a party which I have never supported, ever, I wish he was still in congress. I would feel like our nation has a snowball’s chance if there were more like him in the house and senate. Our nation operated as a nation should when we had both parties working across the aisle to craft legislation, etc. back in the day. We lost something vital when the leaders of the republican party had their members (in D.C.) go home on the weekends rather than staying in D.C. to get to know their democrat colleagues (Al Franken discusses this in his book Giant of the Senate).
Hey magats…no worries…if orangebob shitpants hears this and literally shits his britches…no problem. Superbaby is wearing a giant diaper! It’s all good and smelly, and you can enjoy watching your ‘god’ stagger to the changing station. Enjoy your frostbite in the land of corn and white people! Hey Nikki they don’t know what the Civil War was about either, so you’re good. Hey preyingmantis…get yourself some white snow boots…no one will notice in a blizzard. Vivek, a.k.a., chatty Cathy doll…sorry…no one’s going to listen to a foreigner in tractorland. You’ll have to pull your own string. Gotta go get some serenity now! This phucking place can get on a person’s last nerve. These are people running for president? I’m going back to using drugs so I can console myself that’s why reality has gotten so phucking weird.
“when the going gets weird…the weird turn pro.” Hunter S Thompson
Imagine there’s no trump.
it’s easier than when kyle rittenhouse cried.
No smell around us
Above US only some guy.
Imagine all the people
livin’ it up in the world.
Imagine there’s no russia
It’s probably about to come true.
No one who will kill for fun
And no fake religions too
Imagine all the sheeple
lookin’ for their fuhrer
Yahoooo hoo!