In our democracy, we tend to like things simple. Our democracy is based on the Two Party System. We have two national parties, the Democratic and the Republican parties, and their candidates are pretty much what voters have to choose from. The founders set it up that way so that we wouldn’t accidentally slide onto what the founders thought of as a broken parliamentary system.
But in the national fallout from the failed 57-43 Trump impeachment vote, I came to realize that as with so much in life, our current understanding of the two party system is actually an over simplification. And that realization gave me a glimpse as just how fractured the current GOP is, and why it may never be possible to put it back together again.
Former Senator Claire McCaskill related an interesting, and very pertinent poll today on MSNBC. In a poll taken a couple of weeks before the election, GOP voters were asked one simple question, Do you support Donald Trump, or do you support the Republican party? The final result was 59% Trump and 30% Republican party. Which seems to cement the assertion that it’s now Trump’s party. But the identical poll, taken 2 weeks ago, showed the results as 48% GOP and 35% Trump. McCaskill pointed out that this showed that after losing, and losing social media access, Trump’s hold on the party is weakening, making the civil war a much more even match.
Here’s why this is important. When we think of the Democrats or the GOP, we think of the national parties. But they aren’t that monolithic. Each national party has 50 semi autonomous state parties. They run state operations, recruit candidates for local and state offices, and provide support and logistics. And the national parties support the state parties. And this is what is going to tear the GOP to shreds in the long run. Because they’re polar opposites.
Within minutes of voting to acquit Trump on a technicality, Mitch McConnell took to the well of the Senate, and did a better job of convicting Trump than the Democrats did. He laid his soul to waste, but also hiding behind the lie that the Senate had no authority to act. He went so far as to tell the world that Trump hadn’t actually gotten away with anything yet, since the DOJ and the states could prosecute him for his crimes.
McConnell did this for a totally self serving reason. McConnell is a high ranking member in national leadership, and since the insurrection, the GOP has been gushing red ink. Big money donors and corporate America are horrified at Trump’s seditious actions, and want nothing to do with a party that is in Trump’s pocket, whether he’s President or not. McConnell’s floor speech was a naked appeal to big donors and corporate America, signaling that the GOP is ready to slam the door, and move on from the debacle of the Trump presidency.
Except, maybe not. Within two hours of McConnell’s floor speech, the Louisiana state Republican party announced that it had unanimously censure Senator Bill Cassidy for voting to convict Trump. Geez, think that there are any kind of mixed messages going out there?
This is what is going to kill the current iteration of the GOP. The RNC is desperately trying to turn the corner on Trump, and remain a viable national political party capable of, if not winning a presidency, at least taking control of a national chamber. And the state parties are listening and responding to their local yahoos, and they all wubs dem some Trump. And never the twain shall meet.
This will play out large in 2022. On 2020, the Democrats in the House lost seats, mostly white, suburban swing seats that they had flipped in 2018, when white suburban women couldn’t take their outrage out on Trump directly. In 2022, the vast majority of those moderate GOP candidates will get primaried from the far right by Trombie mutants, and likely lose. Which will bring white suburban GOP women, who thought they dealt with this shit once-and-for-all in spanking Trump in 2020, right back out to the polls to deal with the sloppy seconds.
And 2022 is going to be a garden tea party compared to 2024. Because the 2024 GOP Presidential primaries are going to be a Himalayan mass orgy. because on the one hand, you have Trumpian idjits like Pompeo, Cruz, Rubio, Hawley, and Johnson who have all decided that the Trump brand is the coin of the realm to win the nomination. And on the other hand, you have people like Cassidy, Romney, Sasse, Cheney, and maybe even Flake, you have gone all-in on the traditional, conservative GOP as the dominant wing of the party. The primaries themselves will be fractured, with two widely disparate groups each vying to come up with a top dog to go up against the other. And whatever the result of the primaries, it will irreparably fracture the base for the general election.
It was a Republican President, Abraham Lincoln who famously said; A house divided against itself cannot stand. And right now, the GOP is about as divided as it can get. The state party organs need to raise their own funds to remain in operation, and will be receptive to local donors. The national party can’t take over every state party, they need them to function and get local slates elected. Unless Trump is convicted quickly and jailed, or disappears from the scene, I don’t see how they fix this. If that poll McCaskill quoted shows that the two sides are too evenly split for one to get the upper hand. Don’t touch that dial.
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Jesus reportedly made that exact point when he was accused of being the demonic ruler since demons cowered to him and obeyed him. Now demons go to law school, wear nice suits & give speeches. Otherwise, not much has changed. I would point out to the faithful, the Devil not only tempted Christ with the kingdoms of the world, but claimed they were his. Christ offered no rebuttal other than not to blaspheme. Other than a miracle education for 74million to get with some type of feasible reality, my expectations for the human species is riddled with doubt. The good news is mathmatically no one knows exactly what is happening at any moment given the ever swirling realities of 7 billion souls. So who knows? Maybe there is a Judgement day. That will be the only day these murderous, lying hypocrites will face justice. The phrase “generation of vipers” & republican party seem the same.
McTurtle is trying to have both the support of the RWNJs and the less-lunatic people who still identify as Republican. He really should have retired already.
touche
I agree with your sentiment but there is a problem out there that has just been made worse. Gerrymandering. Our losses at the state level last November are going to make things that much more difficult to expand our majority in the House. Keep in mind that the massive numbers we got in 2018 only got us to just over 240 seats. In the old days (pre 2010) that would have resulted in at least 270 or 280 seats as history has shown. Nationally our margin set a record and in fact blew through the old one where we did in fact gain over 70 seats. Add that to some of the voter suppression laws being introduced in so many states and we’ll face an even bigger challenge. I’m not saying we can’t expand our majority but I fear even with a turnout for our candidates on the level of 2018 or even greater we’ll be lucky to get back to 235-40 seats. 230 or so is probably more realistic. Better, but not by much. And I’m not sure we’ll be lucky enough to have Nancy Pelosi running the show, even if she runs again. The deal she cut in 2018 was to serve two more terms as Speaker and then yield to someone new. That was the price the moderates and quite a few of the progressive newcomers extracted to support her candidacy. Now, it’s possible that if she stays on and wants to keep the gavel a lot of those folks (many of them newcomers as I noted) will change their minds, and instead demand replacement of other members of the leadership team. I for one think Steny Hoyer should just go away and never be heard from again. I’d have loved to have seen Adam Schiff moved into his slot and become the heir apparent. Now? He’s likely to be leaving entirely to become the AG of California. He’s said he’d like the job. That will be a huge loss for us, although I think if Biden decides in a couple of years to stick to one term he’d make a hell of a running mate for Kamala Harris! Well, I’m rambling.
I guess I’m just worried that we are going to have a tougher time in 2022 than we currently think.
dems hoped to pick up seats in Texas in 2020, but it all remained the same. Which actually to me was a win. Dems picked up seats in 2018 and did not lose any in 2020.
Without trump on the ballot a lot of the crazy support will sit out. Second what is in a name, I never suspected trump would live this long. How long will he live at home with no twitter while watching his financials.
all people die, parties hang on, but what happens when trump dies?
What will happen when he dies? That question makes me wish I was a person of faith that believes in heaven and hell because the thought of him experiencing a tortured existence for all eternity in hell brings a smile to my face. At least he’s getting a small taste of what for HIM is hell on earth. Cut off from social media (the twitter ban has to be eating him up inside!) and not having rich folks at Mar A Lago lining up to kiss his ass (he can’t do anything for them anymore) also probably causes him to sometimes realize in the middle of the night that they were only nice to him because they thought he could grant them favors they couldn’t get from anyone else has to be a bitter pill for him to swallow. And of course not being able to regularly bask in the glowing adoration of all those slobbering & screaming goobers at his rallies is probably the worst thing for him. He might not have had a problem picking up the tab (or having his campaign funds donated by others cover the costs) before becoming Prez but for years he had US the taxpayers footing the bill and got spoiled. Like a rich kid with an unlimited budget and a dealer who could provide the highest quality cocaine! Now? He’s back to having to pay the costs again and he’s scrambling to divert money being donated to his political career to keep afloat financially! One look at the budget for one of those rallies and he goes ballistic because he just can’t afford it now that HE has to pick up the tab again!
But for me, knowing he’s unhappy and whining isn’t nearly enough. I want him to suffer true humiliation. The kind he’d suffer being processed into prison. Having to strip down his ill fitting suit and trade it for an orange jumpsuit. Standing there for the photo for his file, knowing it will make it into the news and everyone will be able to see him that way, stripped of his makeup and without his oh so carefully styled ridiculous comb-over duckass hairdo wearing a scratchy polyester prison outfit! Sure, he’d be housed in a special unit with extra protection but the isolation would still be torture for him. A dull gray stainless steel toilet instead of his (fake) gold “throne.” No more diet coke delivered on demand. Prison food instead of steak every night followed by “beautiful” chocolate cake and TWO scoops (Trump – “YOU only get one!”) of ice cream. That would be true torture for Trump. And if instead of a federal prison which more often than not at least has a decent view outside the walls he was locked up in a dingy state prison with only glimpses of dreary scenery outside so much the better. I want him to die breathing prison air. And buried in a cheap cloth covered casket because all of his money will be gone! Knowing that would be the final indignity for him.
If Pelosi retires who do you think will be the top contenders for the Speaker’s seat?
I eventually figured it out, but your post is riddled with pronouns right from the start. The question in everyone’s mind that comes up is, who are the “we” you’re referring to? We can’t read your mind.
Just as a correction on the ‘house divided’ quote – it’s actually a lot older than Lincoln. I’d refer you to the Gospel of St Matthew where it says “every city or house divided against itself will not stand.”
Honest Abe was just quoting the Bible (at least he read it and didn’t use it as a publicity prop)