Since Trumpty Dumpty made it official on Tuesday that he’s running for president in 2024, all of the pundits have come out of the woodwork to weigh in. Normally I agree with Tony Schwartz, who was Trump’s “ghostwriter” on Art Of The Deal.
I put it in quotes, because Schwartz wrote the book, period. It wasn’t “as told to” which a lot of books are, where the stories come from the principal’s lips but the writer makes the narrative cleaner and less confusing.
Nope. The stories came from Trump, yes, in all his grandiosity. But weaving them into any kind of coherent story was done by Schwartz — to his everlasting regret, or so he has said. Now he thinks Trump is going to win the 2024 nomination.
I wholeheartedly disagree. There are too many damaging signs that say that this election is not going to be like the other two. First of all, Trump ran in 2020 as the incumbent. That is no longer the case.
So that would put us back to 2016 for a comparison and the world of 2016 and the world of 2022 are totally different, ironically, due to what Trump himself did to wreck our national discourse and divide us.
Trump may have some fantasy that he will redo 2016, but he can’t. The main thing he had going for him in 2016 was being a unique factor. No one had ever seen anyone like him before, because there had never been anyone like him before. He was the “X” factor in politics.
And people voted for the unknown. A lot of people voted for him simply because he was on the GOP ticket and they were Republicans. By this logic, they would have voted for Rin Tin Tin if the GOPers put him on the ticket, and don’t tempt them. Not after what we saw go on in 2016.
It’s not the same playbook. Trump is not the same candidate. America is not the same country. So I emphatically do not see Trump getting the 2024 nomination.
Why? For openers, because he managed to lose 2018, 2020, 2021 (Georgia runoffs) 2022, and now he’s on his way to another defeat in the 2022 election cycle, the December 6, Georgia runoff. With that kind of a track record, there is no way that a disgruntled and disillusioned GOP is going to vote to nominate him in 2024 for the Fall election. I simply do not see it happening.
Plus, it is no small thing that Ivanka jumped ship and didn’t even show up at his announcement speech and neither did Don Junior. These are not small signs, these are giant billboards, announcing that something is radically different this time out. That’s especially true in the case of Don Junior. He was slated to take Jared Kushner’s role as campaign manager and now that’s not happening at all. Whether he takes any role remains to be seen.
The evangelicals have dumped Trump. The RWNJs have dumped Trump. Rupert Murdoch and his outlets, Fox News, the New York Post and the Wall Street Journal have all dumped Trump.
So I don’t know what “base” Tony Schwartz is talking about or how it’s going to carry Trump over the finish line to the nomination.
I emphatically and categorically cannot see the GOP banking on Trump yet a third time — or a fourth, fifth or sixth time, depending upon which incidents one counts as defeats.
Two races remain to be called: There is the Georgia runoff on December 6 and that is key. If Herschel Walker loses it and chances are good that he will, then that will be blamed on Trump — and rightfully so. Walker is a horrible candidate that Trump hand picked, because he’s a celebrity.
And Lauren Boebert’s race hasn’t been called. Best case scenario there is she manages to squeak to reelection with a couple of hundred votes. If that happens, that will also speak to the issue of how Trump and his chosen few have gone down in flames, or at least have had their popularity and viability greatly diminished.
I don’t see Trump getting the nomination. As the days go by, I predict that everybody will come to see the sheer folly of him running again and especially of him announcing his candidacy so soon. Sheer idiocy, that.
Plus, and this is gigantic, there is the herd of elephants in the room, each one representing a different lawsuit. We don’t know what will happen in New York, or Georgia, or if the classified documents seizure at Mar-a-Lago will lead to a DOJ indictment. Right now, tonight, we don’t know. But we will assuredly know much more before the Republican convention of 2024, and right now things are not looking good.
I simply don’t see Trump getting the nomination, on these facts.
Reckon we’ll see come 2024. After all, he could be dead by then. lol
Seriously tho’, I expect the nominating process ought to be entertaining to say the least. If cruz decides to throw his dick in the ring to be stomped on, I wonder who’s ass his nose will firmly planted in.
It’s possible for him to get the nomination again. No one thought he would win in 2016, then he started winning. He never got more than about 30 % of the vote in any primary until he had the nomination sewn up. 30 % is enough to win in a rethug primary because most states are winner takes all delegates. If this primary is as crowded as 2016, he has a chance. If the rethugs are smart, they will winnow their field down faster this go around and make it a one on one contest earlier. He just about had the nomination before the field had winnowed down to 3 or 4 in ’16. A plurality of rethug primary voters are MAGA or at least were the last 3 elections, which results in the craziest candidate winning.
I’m not sure about all those folks “dumping Trump.” Murdoch (the old one – son Lachlan has wanted to put Trump in the rearview mirror for several years now) has given really strong indications he’s done. BUT, even if Ingraham is sometimes openly dismissive nowdays during the evening “Three Hour White Power Hour” but even she is hedging some. And Carlson & Hannity are still on the Trump Train and going down on him. Ok, in Hannity’s case there’s a hint of him wishing he didn’t have to and wondering how many more times, but Carlson is going down like an aging porn star who’s contract is about to be up and wants to get a new one! IF and WHEN every bit of the Fox “Talent” openly says (and repeatedly) that Trump is done, and needs to STFU and go away only then will I believe Murdoch/Fox and the whole empire have dumped Trump!
Evangelicals? Some bricks are falling out of the wall for sure but it’s a big ass wall and there are plenty still in place. I agree though that it’s a BFD that a couple of big names have said Evangelicals have to move on – and aren’t being hounded by the crowd (as far as we can see) to walk it back. So that’s worth keeping an eye on. I’ll settle for them being fractured, and I read a story in the last day or so that say young Evangelical’s support has fallen off some. Not a lot, but a trend over the past two cycles suggests they actually do care about stuff beyond culture wars. That being good stewards of “god’s creation” (IOW climate change”) like the bible teaches matters, and that maybe, just maybe poor people shouldn’t be condemned but helped just the way their “Savior” did. That’s something else to keep an eye on.
As for RWNJs in general, we’ve been down this road before. LOTS, and by that I mean a shitload from Congress Critters down to rank and file MAGAts have said PRIVATELY that while they like what Trump did (appointing fascist judges and cutting regulations) they wish he’d either tone down his act or go away. And plenty of them wished he hadn’t run at all in 2020. They got what they wanted from him after all. But they didn’t have the guts to come out publicly and take him on. Some are now starting to do so but it’s far from a critical mass that will snowball and bury Trump’s 2024 primary chances.
I agree though he’s his own worst enemy. Always has been but I do in fact see a reasonable chance that finally it’s catching up to him.
The proverbial stake hasn’t been fully drive through his “heart.” And if I remember old-school vampire lore correctly pulling that stake out lets a vampire rise again! There are additional steps that have to be taken to make sure that the “undead” become truly and forever dead. Things ain’t there yet with Trump. Not by a long shot.
He is either their candidate or not.
If he is the candidate, as already proven, the general electorate is heartily sick of Trump and all his baggage and not only won’t vote for him, but will vote for ANYONE who isn’t him.
Or, if he isn’t the ‘R’ candidate he will run as a third party candidate and split the vote, or all the trump supporters will boycott the vote out of spite, leaving the ‘R’ vote short of votes.
It’s a lovely ‘win-win’ for our side.
Can you overdose on schadenfreude? Asking for a friend.