Georgia Governor Brian Kemp will still have some good years of life ahead when his current term ends. He’s also ambitious, as well as ruthless when it comes to going after what he wants. Calculating too. That he sees moving up from the comfy confines of the Governor’s Mansion into the White House is a given. However, he’s got a MAGA problem. If he thought it had settled down to manageable proportions by mostly laying low during Trump’s current rampage of a second term he’s just gotten a clear sign MAGA remembers him and not fondly.
Virginia is one of a handful of states that hold odd-year elections for statewide offices. That was mostly a function of conservatives in some states trying (and usually succeeding) to take advantage of a historical fact that their staunch voters show up while liberal’s tend to concentrate on Presidential elections and sometimes midterms. Anyway, early voting in Virginia has just started. Democrat Abagail Spanberger is favored to win but her GOP opponent has somehow narrowed what was once a huge gap so the outcome is far from certain.
Virginia became a Blue state but only ‘light’ Blue. Evidence of that is Republican Glenn Youngkin is the sitting Governor. I lived in that state for damned near twenty years and could never understand why that office is ‘one and done.’ Governors in Virginia can’t run for a second term, unless they wait four years and try again. It’s a feat no one has pulled off. That Youngkin is in office at all is due to a remarkable set of circumstances. He had the good fortune of running against Terry McCaulliffe who even Democrats detested. AND he somehow convinced Trump to stay out of things.
In this article from 2paragraphs we get a short overview of where things stand in the Virginia Governor’s race. Trump has yet to endorse the GOP candidate Winsome Earle-Sears who seems to think she’d like to have him weigh in on her behalf. It’s a helluava thing for Trump. There the Light Blue state of Virginia sits across the Potomac and just like four years ago the tiny part of his brain that still works is telling him injecting himself into things will do more harm than good! It’s worth mentioning at this point that a couple of years ago Trump backed a challenger to Kemp in Georgia but Kemp got re-elected anyway. We’ll return to that.
What matters is that while Earle-Sears might be publicly saying yes to an endorsement experts are saying it would be about the worst thing that could happen. And I’m not talking just about Gov. Youngkin who probably tells her multiple times every day NOT to beg Trump to come to Virginia. Or even make a Truth Social video on her behalf. People smarter than me are saying all the progress she’s made closing the gap would be gone in a heartbeat if Trump got involved on her behalf:
Note: Earle-Sears has not received an endorsement from Trump, although she has said she “would be honored” to receive it. Some political analysts including Larry Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, say a Trump endorsement would help Earle-Sears’ Democratic opponent in the race, U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger.
She is however getting the endorsement of Governor and almost certain intended Presidential Candidate Brian Kemp. Kemp hit the campaign trail with her and indications are he might have done almost as much damage to Earle-Sears candidacy as a Trump endorsement would:
Voters on both sides of the aisle are criticizing Kemp for his support of Earle-Sears.
MAGA supporters including X commenter Lucky Philips replied: “I was all for her until you endorsed her.” Another replied: “We want Winsome but don’t need your Rino self for support.” Yet another: “You sure as heck ain’t helping Georgia.”
If you go to the linked article I’m sure you’ll enjoy what a couple of Democrats had to say but I want to keep focusing on Kemp. Yes, he and Trump had issues and Trump tried and failed to punish him by keeping him from re-election in Georgia. Kemp endorsed Trump in 2024 but we all know Trump and he will never, ever forgive Kemp for not f**king with things in Georgia in 2020 to get those Electoral Votes changed over to Trump. Kemp knew he was risking the wrath of MAGA at the time but he was looking at the long game. As in 2028. Most of the time political anger eases over enough time. Kemp probably assumed Trump would run and lose in 2024. Or die, and even if he won not survive his term.
Given how bad Trump looks (and has for a while now) Kemp might well be right. MAGA will still exist without Trump and be a force BUT without Trump whipping them up against Kemp he has probably thought he could finesse what happened in 2020. Remember when I said he was ruthless? ‘Just Dance’ Vance has a collection of Trump Trashing statements that have already been rough-cut into primary campaign commercials by Kemp’s people. However, the reaction of MAGA to his stumping for a Virginia Gov. candidate has to be giving him pause.
Kemp might be okay in Georgia but it’s a big country. Despite the GOP’s built in Electoral College advantage any Republican Presidential candidate is going to have to engineer wins in some crucial swing states. The last several Presidential cycles the margins have mostly been pretty small. Also, in recent years we’re seeing political memories of voters is getting longer. Mother Nature might well decide this country and Mother Earth have suffered enough at the hands of Donald J. Trump. A dead and buried Trump might not be around to actively trash Kemp in a GOP primary but just as Kemp has clips of Vance he can use, Vance and others will have clips of Trump trashing Kemp.
I say fine, let them whack away at each other because it will provide plenty of fodder for OUR candidate once the primaries are done, assuming our side can be civil. My point is that IF Kemp were to prevail, and he can make a strong case with Independents given the events of 2020 that ‘support’ for Trump didn’t mean he was ‘all in’ on Trump and Trumpism MAGAs will notice. Some wouldn’t vote for a Democrat if Jesus Christ came back and was our nominee. However, whomever the GOP nominee is he (and make no mistake it will be a HE) is every MAGA vote will be needed.
Remember what I said about the margins in those swing states. We don’t need a bunch of MAGAs to switch to our side. We just need enough of them to sit things out or vote third-party. Ten percent of them, or maybe even only five percent is enough to swing the results to the Democratic candidate. Yes, it’s only 2025 right now but if in a state like Virginia which again I note is only LIGHT blue are this pissed at Kemp he’s got no chance as a Presidential candidate. So, put a pin in this. It might seem a minor thing right now but it could be a very big deal down the road.
