Sweet Jesus. Somebody in Moscow needs to clamp Putin in irons, and drag him off to Lubyanka, because this is only going to get worse.
As I’ve written, and as you’ve seen in the media by now, we’re in the intermission phase between stages one and two of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Russian forced didn’t just break contact with the Ukrainian army, they fled like a kid walking past a graveyard all the way back inside the Russian and Belarusian borders.
The official Russian explanation is that they’re regrouping, resupplying, and retooling before reentering the theater of operations, now more narrowly defined by the breakaway Donbas and Odessa regions. And I already have a question that nobody seems to be asking. When you look at the number of Russian conscripts that simple disabled their vehicles, threw down their arms, and wandered into forests and fields in the middle of Ukraine to surrender, now that they’re back within their own borders, what do you think the desertion rate might look like?
But for our purposes, the first question is retool and resupply with what? They have almost half of their available manpower and equipment tied up in Ukraine. The rest is spread out in a country with more than twice the number of time zones the US has. How are they going to get the shit to the front?
But more importantly, let’s look at manpower. The invasion forces that Putin sent into Russian conscripts, who were lied to into believing they were on another training exercise. Last week, the Kremlin announced that another 130,000 conscripts had been called up for military service. Which means 8-12 weeks to train them up. So, no matter how you look at it, the Russians will return to the battlefield with the same chickenshits they did for the initial invasion. Only now in a more closely compacted space, ripe for artillery and missile strikes. Give me one reason to believe that phase two will be more successful than phase one.
But what about Ukraine? They are also using this break to reconstitute, reform, reequip, and rearm. But the Ukrainians have something that Russia doesn’t have. The United States and NATO resupplying them with the good stuff. And since they already know what Russia is going to do next, they’re tailoring their supplies for the next battle to be fought, not the last one.
So what do the Ukrainians have in order to replace any military manpower losses? Their secret weapon. In the days following the Russian invasion, Ukrainian President Zelensky barred any healthy males from the ages of 18-60 from leaving the country. The reason being that every last able bodied man was needed to defend the country, mostly by grabbing a gun and going to the front lines.
And they responded, in spades. But they didn’t respond alone, and they didn’t go to the front lines unprepared. Hundreds of combat veterans from nations across the globe flocked to Ukraine, in order to hold training sessions to show Ukrainians how to shoot, how to move, how to respond to combat situations. They schooled them up as best as they could, and then they sent them to the front lines.
That is the Ukrainians secret weapon for phase two. The Russians are sending in more conscripts who are untested, and with no belly for the fight. The Ukrainians are filling their lines with civilian volunteers who have already tasted battle, sighted down a barrel, and pulled the trigger. And they are fighting for their country, and their freedom.
You cannot overestimate that. Every time that a new Russian war atrocity is uncovered in the wake of retreating Russian troops, every media report only shows the Ukrainian civilian population stiffening their spines. The Russians are using warfare terrorism to try to crush the spirit of the Ukrainian people. And yet, with every new atrocity, the Ukrainian spirit to get the Russian invaders off of their land only grows and stiffens.
I played hockey for a long time , too long, and I know what it feels like to play out the last few games of the season for pride, because you aren’t going to the playoffs. But I also know how it feels to play those last 5 games with a trip to the playoff, and a chance to extend your season on the line. Take my word for it, there’s no comparison between the two. If the US and NATO properly supplies Ukraine, and gives them the intelligence for counterattacks, the Russians are fucked.
Here’s another question to ponder. Russia/the USSR has never developed a career NCO backbone in their armed forces the way western countries, and even some authoritarian regimes like China and North Korea have done. Junior and even lower level field grade officers do jobs typically done by NCOs and Staff NCOs in the west. I bring this up because Putin is already arresting and probably quietly executing top Generals. Those who tell him truths he doesn’t want to hear will also find the careers if not their lives ended. But he’s KGB to his very core and there are probably intelligence types he will trust to the bitter end willing to tell him what he wants to hear. Given that, when you look at history Putin’s country has purged its officer corps before and one can’t help but wonder if given the failures so far a larger purge is coming.
What I’m saying is that while there will still be experienced combat troops in any new offensive, troops wanting some payback for losses they sustained in round one (and their war crimes prove there a plenty such troops and officers) they NEED replacement troops and officers as much as they need replacement equipment. Their conscripts will be cannon fodder and while like the initial invasion troops they might have been cut off from real news enough to believe the bullshit being fed to them at least until they are in Ukraine and in the real shit, it’s possible that they will be LED on the front lines by a hastily assembled group of “politically acceptable” (and as incompetent as they are politically acceptable) officers!
What could possibly go wrong?
Sadly for both Ukraine and a shitload of Russian troops who don’t want anything to do with this tragedy we will find out.
Right now I’m desperately hoping that the powers-that-be are working on a way out so this madness can end. Even if sanctions ended tomorrow Russia is going to suffer for a long, long time and even if Putin remains in power it won’t be for long. Oligarchs that might depose him will be a lot more careful about engaging in Putin style antics moving forward too. The question is how to get Russia to end its attacks and satify Ukraine which has every right to expect huge reparations from Russia?
An idea popped into my head while writing this but I’m going to have to give it some thought. But I’m thinking Crimea might turn out to be the key.
Pink Floyd has released thief first new music in 30 years in support of the U,rainian people……the singer is from a Ukrainian rock band who left their tour to fight for his homeland. It is based on an old Ukrainian ballad.
Pink Floyd – Hey Hey Rise Up
Also, here is an article from Rolling Stone describing David Gilmore’s inspiration for the song….
Here is the link for the article…
Sorry…..evidently the link won’t work here. 🙁
The link does work….just not in the traditional way.
Sorry for the confusion.
So is the vaunted “modernised” Red/Russian Army made up of draftees, led by political officers? If so, they’re royally fucked going up against the Ukrainian military, carefully and competently strengthened since Crimea ’14 and led in the field by professional officers and NCOs. The Russians will depend, as they did in WW2, on sheer numbers, both in manpower (cannon fodder) and materiel (massed artillery and tanks). Neither will win out against a smaller but better prepared force, fighting to protect its homeland and citizenry, especially if that smaller force has the right weapons for the task.
I’m praying for Ukraine ….