Weird seems to be the operative word lately when it comes to Trump. When it comes to luck we all know for anyone it sometimes is good and sometimes bad. Sometimes it’s hard to figure whether something happens to us or someone else is good luck or bad. It’s hard to explain but from where I sit as the headline indicate is just plain weird! A mix of a train labeled “Good” and one Labeled “Bad” crashing into each other at full steam. It makes me think the word that’s been hung on Trump and his campaign, the world “weird” fits this perfectly.
Trump and his folks might have been all brash last night thinking his disastrous appearance at the National Association of Black Journalist was a tour de force of his kicking a$$ and taking names. Outside his bubble, even among many conservatives angst was developing and this morning the news was shaping up to be a day over coverage about the damage Trump had done to himself and the Party. He needed the story to change and didn’t know how. Not to worry though, because President Biden changed it for him.
News leaked mid-morning that there would be a prisoner swap with Russia. Then we were told it was literally underway. Finally it was official. Not just two Americans who we’ve heard about over and over were free, but FOUR of our people were! Trump sort of got what he wanted and needed. the NABJ mess out of the headlines but NOT for yet another President Biden foreign policy triumph. For Trump this mashup of these twists and turns and how they affect news coverage of him is, in a word WEIRD. Again, as the day unfolds the basic story, for example stuff like this article from NBC News will get fleshed out with details about how complicated all this was
I swear Trump must be wondering what hell he’s suddenly been consigned to. I’m sure (and you should be too) at some point the SS Trumptanic will manage enough damage control to keep it afloat but the last couple of weeks it’s been taking hits almost daily from torpedoes and bombs. Still, when it comes to what’s become the big story today keep something in mind. Trump lest we forget has been bragging how only HE would be able to get Evan Gershkovich (who is a journalist so Trump could care less about him) and Paul Whelan (who served in the Marines which Trump wanted to play up) out. He said (on camera) right after he won the election Putin would do it just cause HE, the “Great and Powerful” Trump would simply ask. Trump of course has been dismissive that the actual President, the guy who beat him like a drum in 2020 could do anything.
And now, in the midst of trying to retool his campaign to deal with Kamala Harris as his opponent THIS happens. I’m sure Trump and his gang talked themselves into some feelgood moments about “old Joe Biden” now being a lame duck. That my friends it why Trump was developing the hostage release thing as a campaign message. I’ll bet they were well into a series of ads, and talking points to give to Republicans about how these Americans unjustly held by Russia (in Whelan’s case since 2018. Hmmm. Who was President when it happened? All the way to Jan. 21, 2021?) were stuck with no hope. But the Mighty Trump with a single phone call would, like Moses tell Putin “Let my people go” and by golly ole Vlad would bend the knee. Well, THAT went up in a cloud of burnt orange smoke!
Trump and Republicans will no doubt, and I think are already trying the only thing they can which is to say we ‘gave up too much’ to close this deal. They have to be careful though because if they push this too hard a grateful family or two might get in front of the cameras (or worse speak in prime time at the convention) pushing back. Think about what we’ve seen from families who had loved ones taken by Hamas terrorists last October. Those who’ve gotten their loved ones back for the most part haven’t cared about how many Palestinian prisoners got released in exchange.
If anything it’s a ‘what took so long to cut the deal’ type of message. As for families still waiting there’s a lot more ‘Why are our loved ones still hostages? If it takes a LONG cease fire and/or even thousands more released Palestinian prisoners so what? Just get it done!’ And Bibi Netanyahu has to be careful on how he responds to them. Even HE knows to on that point at least dial the temperature down. So Trump and the GOP can only push the we gave up to much narrative so far or risk a backlash when it’s the last thing they need. Trump/Republicans are in an awkward place. In what passes for normal political times they could make more hay with less risk of blowback but they are already rocked back on their heels these days.
Trump no doubt is furious and ranting and making phone calls to them. Bellowing, DEMANDING they help him do… well something. The problem of course is that as with how to deal with the change from Biden to Harris as the Democratic nominee they aren’t the least bit sure about what to do, much less come up with the kind of coordinated messaging Republicans once were able to generate seemingly at a moment’s notice. So yeah, Trump is one freaking angry little camper right now.
I think the strange, no wait WEIRD sound I’m hearing is Trump screaming in rage all the way from Mar A Lago or Bedminster or wherever the hell he is (I’m near Raleigh, NC) right now. New curse words are being invented and being hurled at Biden, Dark Brandon and even the guy Pootie he thought was his pal. Part of it is fear based. If Putin was willing to do this now, then it was because he thinks there’s a good chance HE (Trump) will lose this fall so he cut a deal with someone to get some of his own people back. Your damned right the thought of that, that Putin has real doubt about him scares the living hell out of Trump.
As the hours have passed we are starting to learn just how complicated all this was. Complicated doesn’t cover the half of what it took to make this happen. Only some of it is covered, along with some basics about our FOUR people who are now free in this NBC article I provided a link to. Multiple countries including allies were needed to get it done and especially in the case of Germany concessions had to be negotiated and agreed to. It’s looking like by the end of the week as we get a much fuller picture this will be talked about as one of the most stunning diplomatic feats in decades. Trump doesn’t like alliances because his simple brain has only been able to “horse trade” with one person/entity at a time. The self-professed master of the ‘Art of the Deal’ has never had the ability to put together a big, multi partner deal. That’s why foreign relations with our allies, and our foreign policy and standing in the world went to hell during his term.
No one other than a hard core orange (Trump color orange) Kool Aid drinker will believe Trump could have done something this complicated. Even many Democratic leaders who called for him to step aside are I suspect looking at President Biden and fearing the time they will hear in their heads the lament tag line from Big Yellow Taxi – Don’t it always seem to go, that you don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone. Given the clear problems in the world with more than one situation threatening to spiral out of control many Republicans are thinking the same thing. If asked to name anyone other than President Joe Biden who could have pulled this off no one can come up with a name. And we are learning key parts of settling the details of this were being worked out by President Biden in the weeks and even days before he pulled out of the race!
Luck is a quirky thing. Some people seem to have little of it. Some seem blessed with it. Infuriatingly a handful of people in the latter category seem to most to be unfairly blessed with incredible good luck. Not that he hasn’t had some setbacks in his business career but Trump weathered them and came out if not smelling like a rose then at least intact and able to go on to the next scam and make money from it. The thing about luck is that if a person presses it too much it can run out. A professional gambler or even good con man/woman knows when it’s time to walk away from a game/con. People, especially when riding a streak usually press their luck. It why casinos (unless Trump owned them) make their owners so much money. People who’ve ridden a hot streak to a lot of money can’t resist the urge to walk away. Also, people who’s luck has run cold don’t know when to cut their losses either.
In the past year Trump has with court losses seemingly seeing his luck has run out. Yes, SCOTUS has given him one hell of a legal “line of credit” but even that might not save him. I still believe that President Biden could have and would have beaten Trump this fall. I’m convinced Kamala Harris can do so even with the the cheating Team Trump has telegraphed it will engage in. Why her supporters should take nothing for granted is a different and longer topic.
What matters, what I’m writing about today is that it really does look like Trump’s luck is no longer a sure thing. Kamala Harris’ candidacy has been cutting chunks out of it with a meat cleaver. Trump and his VP pick have been carving pieces out themselves as they engage in a political version of juggling chain saws and dropping them. And now today. Like I said earlier the news till mid-morning was what the whole day and evening promised to be – an almost nonstop mashup of stories about how badly Trump blew it yesterday. His only consolation would have been at least coverage of his VP, J.D. (for Justa Dumbass) Vance would be minimal. Now, he’s seen what was going to be a major campaign theme (Biden/Harris ‘weakness’ on foreign policy and ability to deal with Putin) ‘stollen’ from him.
Good news and bad news mixed together in a blender only more like the “Bass-O-Matic” gag from the original SNL. (Gross – but they should see if Dan Akroyd would come back and play Trump this fall) Is Trump feeling lucky or unlucky today? That’s a question for all of us – is the unexpected change in the focus of the news lucky or unlucky for Trump. From where I sit it’s both. Trump’s luck is all of a sudden just plain WEIRD.
I seem to remember a famous line from Dirty Harry…”do you feel lucky punk”?
I remember the very first time I saw that movie and that line. Through all the chaos and shooting ole Dirty Harry was cool as a cucumber and when the character talks about having lost track of how many shots he’d fired in all the excitement two words came to mind – BULL SHIT. Harry knew exactly how many shots he’d fired – and that the bad guy wouldn’t and more importantly didn’t have the guts to take a chance to find out.
As for feeling lucky, many a person has felt that way and take a gamble, sometimes a huge one based on nothing but emotion. And while sometimes they have in fact lucked out, often they don’t and lose. I go back to my own love of a Branch Rickey quote I’ve cited eslewhere about luck being the residue of design. More plainly a person can, to an extent make their own luck. Or at least have by doing certain things prior to a moment where they have a big “do I feel lucky?” moment have at least some basis on which to make their decision.
As a gangly, uncoordinated kid who spent hours on end practicing basketball skills (even though my first love was baseball, but basketball was a close second), dribbling, shooting and other drills eventually by my sophomore year in high school signs began to show I was started to gain coordination and all those countless hours of practice would start to pay off. What guided me was something I read about Bill Bradley. Yes, the former Senator who was also a college standout (still holds the record for most points scored in a final four game), and Olympic Gold Medalist and starting small forward on two NBA championship teams. I can’t still quote it exactly but it was ‘Remember that whenever you aren’t practicing, somewhere someone else is and when you meet he will defeat you.’
Being a successful political leader, one who can accomplish things like passing laws and creating/implementing policy requires extensive preparation for the role. Certain skills, developed and honed over time enough to be instinctual are needed. Business skills can in fact be useful but much as some people think or if politicians who’ve been nothing but business persons or voters to say government isn’t and shouldn’t be managed like a business. A better analogy would be a giant for-the-public-good multi faceted non-profit. Business skills and experience can be helpful but aren’t the ‘be all end all’ that too many make it out to be.
There are other types of education/training and experience that are as important as if not more so than business experience when it comes to being successful in politics. Most who aspire to and attain the Presidency spend decades, if not their entire lives learning a set of skills. Trump spent his life trying (and failing) to learn his father’s real estate business. And grifting. Kamala Harris spent her life acquiring broader experience and therefore skills and knowledge. A rank and file courtoom prosectutor. A DA where management skills were required. Attorney General of our largest (by population as well as larger than most physically) state where her portfolio was far broader. It required not just political skills but addressing business/economic mattters, international trade and working with foreign businesses and countries, large and diverse industries in her state which on it’s own is the seventh or eighth largest economy in the world, environment matters, national security matters due to having a large defense presence (both bases and troops as well as a huge portion of the defense industry) and more. Then Senator and up to Vice-President under the best tutor and mentor anyone who wanted to lead this country and the free world could have.
THAT is a lifetime of preparation and a rock-solid record of learning and achievement.
What does Trump have? A lifetime of failures where his dad had to bail him out, scrambling ever since he took over the family business to keep it from collapsing with a boatload of shall we say questionable financial dealings to keep all the balls he’s juggled in the air and a stint as a “Reality” TV “star.” I’ve said before and will say again that if instead of being born to Fred Trump, Donald had been born in Queens to some working class or even middle class family the most he would have ever come to is owning (with partners and creditors constantly breathing down his neck) some used car dealership in a lot many blocks off any main road. Wearing a loud, ugly plaid jacket and sporting a crappy toupe that would look as ridiculous as his duckass combover hairdo. Just another huckster used car salesman. That’s all he really is when you think about it – he just happens to have been born to wealth and privilege and the ability to turn on just enough charm when he had no other choice but to do so so sucker rich people like the con-man he is at heart.
California has the 5th largest economy, in the world.
“The economy of the State of California is the largest in the United States, with a $3.987 trillion gross state product (GSP) as of 2024. [1] It is the largest sub-national economy in the world. If California were a nation it would rank in terms of nominal GDP as the world’s fifth largest economy, behind Japan and ahead of India (3.937 trillion).” Wikipedia
And deals like this are NOT simply “programmed” to be announced as part of any countries’ political campaigns either. This was a long term PROCESS, a word trumpy knows nothing about.
The fact that it happened to occur right after yesterdays trump brain fart is NOT something anyone could have, should have or would have planned, it is entirely coincidental.
He’s still weird. This isn’t. Great news for lotsa reasons. Go Team BLUE.
Biden can still make significant history because he has personal, professional and political honesty and integrity, and always has ‘Plan B’ primed, just in case. By contrast the former guy – now suffering cat scratch fever – is, and always will be, bereft of these capacities and abilities. Biden will be remembered and revered as the best ever single term POTUS. The former guy, by contrast, will be remembered and seen as a pathologically weird destructive disruptor that exhibited allergy to normality and cats.
I wonder if part of Biden’s secret sauce now is this: that the way things have worked out (or more accurately, the way he got things to work out) has made him a much stronger president — precisely by freeing him from the distractions and vulnerabilities of the campaign. Usually we would consider such a president a “lame duck.” But he’s not very lame when his hand-picked replacement is looking stronger every day. And this is happening while the trumpsters are in meltdown mode. Right now Biden and Harris really are a team, and there’s no reason why they should not continue to be one, informally, even after the election.
Sometimes it ain’t luck: Plan B was primed, Plans C and D on paper in a drawer, and on a scratch pad on the desk a notion ready to be fleshed out into Plans E. You don’t survived 50 years in Washington without multiple strategies.
Sometimes it is luck: If this had been pulled off the day after the debate, the calls for the step-aside would have been quelled, and we’d would have been right back where we were.
Plan for what you can, take anything good that just stumbles your way, and don’t make unforced errors, like the fat klansman going into the shark tank at the NABJ Convention.
Biden just shows the old adage.
You make your own luck.
Trump can’t.
Branch Rickey (the guy who built the old Brooklyn Dodgers and turned them from a second division franchise into a contender AND who integrated Major League baseball by signing Jackie Robinson) liked to say “Luck is the residue of design.”
it’s like an Olympic chess game…your move Trump.
it’s even better than you are saying because a bunch of Russian dissidents were also freed into Germany. Bittersweet because Navalny himself had been part of the negotiations until his murder. the West got 16 people, Russia got 8 spies and assassins.
Have they taken away Donnie’s passport yet? Because his smartest move would be to sneak out in the dead of night after signing over what’s left of his tarnished empire to the brats, and flying someplace without an extradition treaty…if he has something on the the owner of a private jet. Maybe one of Epstein ‘s prey gang?