“Bye baby goodbye, bye-bye, so long farewell, bye baby goodbye.” — See You In September
This is an intriguing situation here. Bill Barr, before leaving office, issued a memo saying in essence that nobody in the Department of Justice could investigate a political candidate without coming to him first, personally, and getting him to sign off. That memo is still in force and effect, according to Rachel Maddow’s research. Apparently, Donald Trump is aware of this and is of the opinion that it would shield him from investigation if he announced his candidacy.
For example, it’s well known that the DOJ has a policy of not investigating candidates in the last 60 days or so before an election, in order to not have the appearance of bias. So Trump may well be looking to sail under that umbrella if he announces his run in Sepember, which is now the rumor. But maybe he’s got it all wrong.
Yes, Trump could announce in September. And yes, under the rules of the DOJ, as they now stand and have stood for some time, the DOJ will not initiate any investigation. BUT — and this is a big but — two things will happen if Trump announces in September:
- He may well be shielded from investigation. That’s all well and good. But it may not be the panacea he thinks it is.
- The November midterms will become a referendum on Trump.
Also, while we’re at it, the instant he announces, he becomes fair game for Joe Biden to start taking pot shots at and take pot shots Biden will. Trump is a perfect foil for Biden. We saw that in 2020, and we’ll see it again, starting early.
Now the Republicans are able to parse through this as well as you or I. This is not rocket science. They do not want Trump to run at this time. Right this minute, this instant, if you would ask Republican leadership or Republican rank and file, “Do you want Donald Trump to announce his run?” you would likely get a screaming, “NOH!”
But Trump doesn’t care what the GOP thinks or what’s good for the GOP. He could cost them the November midterms and he really couldn’t care less. In fact, he may already have cost them the November midterms because of the wild MAGA candidates he has endorsed, the likes of Mehmet Oz and Herschel Walker. Let’s hope that’s the case.
So the GOP is hoping and praying that Trump doesn’t upset the apple cart any more than he already has.
But all that Trump can think about is surviving. And right now he’s got a pack of rabid dogs chasing him and they are called the J6 Committee and they’re determined to have his hide. So to his “thinking” if he announces his candidacy then that will defuse the DOJ — no matter what evidence the J6 Committee comes up with — and they won’t be able to get him. Because the memo says so. He thinks.
All he wants to do is shut the January 6 Committee up. That is all that he can think about. And the memo will do that and protect him. He thinks it’s like a cloaking device on Star Trek, it will render him invisible.
However, the memo saying that the Attorney General has to be apprised of the investigation may be nothing much. Merrick Garland is already following the January 6 Committee with the rest of the world. He may have already considered what actions to take against Trump. And yes, Garland would certainly abide by precedent, and if Trump announces in September, then yes, nothing will come out of the DOJ to harm him until after the election.
But then after the election, Garland may well dump a ton of bricks on Trump. Because the memo specifically says that the matter has to go directly to the attorney general. It doesn’t say that the AG can’t do anything, especially in the face of compelling reasons to indict. This is terra incognita, here, like so many things Trump.
Merrick Garland has come under an immense amount of criticism for not going after Trump already. Personally, I think that he might be waiting for Trump to be given enough rope to hang himself and the GOP along with him.
That may take place in a few days in fact, at the Thursday hearing of the Committee. Trump is panicking and panicky people do stupid things. Stupid panicking people do really stupid things. Trump may sink the GOP’s chances this fall by announcing in September so that he can shield himself from the DOJ. And maybe that’s how it will go down. Maybe he’ll just self immolate and take the Republican party with him.
All he cares about is saving his own skin.
Let’s hope he does it. Let’s hope he announces in September. See you in September, Donald.
All that memo says is that the AG has to sign off on an investigation/indictment. Billy Barr is no longer AG. Merrick Garland will OK an investigation. Of course, an AG would want to be in the loop when you’re investigating someone like a former president.
Trump is desperate to defuse the J6 Committee. That’s what might make him declare, because then they can’t refer him to the DOJ — he thinks. There’s an article in Bloomberg now saying that the DOJ will pursue an action against Trump if the evidence warrants one. But I hope he believes that announcing a run will save him because then he’ll tank the GOP. That’s what I’m hoping for.
Run, Donnie, Run!
Exactly. Do not pass go, do not collect $200, just run and tank the GOP while you’re at it.
You can’t spell embarrassment without Barr!
It won’t apply to the former guy until August 2024. It’s the DOJ standard policy, and not anything to panic over.
What it is in reality is not the point, so much as what Trump thinks it is, or thinks he can convince the base it is.
He & barr can discuss how the memo failed him during their time in the joint. My read is maybe barr was trying to prevent Trump stirring up shit along with any crazy state attorney generals looking to do crazy shit. Would we want these folks investigating Pelosi, Biden or AOC without garland knowing & signing off? Frump can watch the 2024 election in the prison break room. If he lives that long. Eat more chicken & fries humpty!!!
He’s grabbing at straws, like any drowning man.
Correct me if I”m wrong here but policy is not law. Granted, I don’t think Garland would even think about going against a policy: he is too much the institutionalist. Everyone seems to hang a great deal on what is nothing more than a policy which can be changed at the whim of whatever head of D.O.J. comes along.
Of course this is all speculation because announcing more than two years before an election “I’m running for re-election” does not make someone a candidate or at least not a serious candidate. Unless former guy files the necessary paperwork he is merely flapping his gums. There’s over 2 years-4 months of time until the next prez election. If Garland were to cite the policy as a reason for not going after former guy at this time he needs to be removed from D.O.J.
I really don’t understand why evereyone is referreing to this as “Bill Barr’s memo.” Well, not everyone, but so many normally reliable sources.
This memo is the same memo which has been released every even numbered year for decades. It’s the same memo that James Comey broke. Only the name of the AG and a few minor details like the date of the memo have changed. Meidas Touch caught this and has a good short video explaining it – two, actually, but the one made by the Meidas brother is better.