Just an FYI to start. I knew going in yesterday that I was going to provoke a response, and I did. That’s part of my job, not just to entertain and maybe even inform, but to poke you with a stick sometimes and make you think. I read every comment, and thank you for them all. Believe me, I’m not hurt, if any of you had ever met the psychotic velociraptor I used to be married to, you’d know you’re all Barney the dinosaur.
I want to begin with this. Nobody on the Biden or Bust train like you and I should have been surprised. All the way back in 2020, progressives were already sounding alarm bells on the age of some of the candidates, especially Biden. Not so much for 2020, but for 2024. After all, if your last name isn’t Carter, Johnson, Bush or Trump, you tend to get a 2nd term. The solution at the time was to cross that bridge when we get to it. Now it’s 2024, we’re at the bridge, and the toll is a bitch.
Lewis Carroll put it beautifully in Alice in Wonderland when he penned, Start at the beginning. Go on to the end. Then stop. And if we want to see the easiest, most practical way out of this dilemma, like Alice we have to Go back to the beginning.
Early 2020. There were an incredible number of 24 contenders for the Democratic presidential nod, all of them with various skillsets, and any of head and shoulders above the corrupt poltroon sitting in the White House.
And there was no reason for anybody to drop out, since nobody was taking control of the huge field. And not only was Biden not catching fire, he was freezing to death. He barely scored in Iowa, came in 5th in New Hampshire, and 4th in Nevada. He limped into South Carolina on life support. Win or go home.
Which would be a disaster for the Democrats, all of them. Biden was supposed to be the favorite, but if he dropped out after South Carolina, The Democrats were literally looking squarely at a four month Thunderdome, and a national convention so divisive it would make Chicago in 1968 look like a Kumbaya revival.
For the top 10 in the field, South Carolina was the Holy Grail. Whomever took South Carolina would have Big MO going into Super Tuesday, far more spread out, and where the top dog finish in South Carolina would carry more weight and name recognition as the favorite. South Carolina could break the logjam.
And it did. And Biden had a secret weapon. South Carolina congressional colossus and local Kingmaker Jim Clyburn. Every year Clyburn holds a fish fry that is basically a cattle call for up and coming Democrats to meet power brokers and donors. Clyburn couldn’t take a dump for two weeks without a different candidate handing him toilet paper. It all came down to Clyburn.
And Clyburn broke for Biden. Hard. He backed Biden with an emotional endorsement on the eve of the primary, tearing up as he told of one of his last conversations with his beloved wife on who to endorse. Clyburn cracked the whip, and Biden blew everybody else out of the water. The presumed frontrunner had climbed the rock, and pulled out Excalibur. And within about 48-72 hours the entire field had cleared out, and biden was the presumptive nominee going into Super Tuesday, never looking back.
Which begs the question, Why did it work in the first place? Biden’s South Carolina victory didn’t even give him a solid majority of the early delegates. And Biden had money troubles going into Super Tuesday. Why did everybody else suddenly fall in line and form a phalanx behind Biden’s back?
Here’s the secret my dears, and it’s the same one that applies this year, but that didn’t apply in 2016. In 2016 Traitor Tot was a rank ass clown that would beat himself, there was no real reason for the sore loser Bernie Bros to fall in line behind Clinton, no matter what Bernie himself said. But in 2020, El Pendejo Presidente was an existential threat to the safety, security, and democracy of the United States. Beating Trump was the paramount objective, and if Biden was the best vehicle to do that, then so be it. This was more important than any single candidate primary cycle. The Democrats fell in line to save democracy, pure and simple. Biden just happened to be the vehicle to do it.
And here we are again, in an identical location and circumstances have changed. There were no contested primaries this year, and maybe knowing something and not wanting to tip their mitts, his staff has kept Biden tightly scripted and cut off from the press as much as possible. After 3 1/2 years in office, Biden has given fewer press conferences than any President since Reagan.
The best laid plans of mice and men, huh? The debate performance blew over Biden’s house of straw. There’s no way to unring that bell. Once you drive past that crash at 5 mph, there’s no way for you to unsee that severed head sitting on the dashboard. It just is. And that one car wreck has started legitimate conversations of concern. The only remaining question is where we go from here?
There are only two realistic paths forward from here, and they both fount from the same wellspring. Forget about rehabilitating Biden, it’s too late for that. Biden has historically been known as somewhat of a gaffe machine, but after that debate debacle, even a simple Biden gaffe that would have been laughed off even 10 years ago now becomes grist for the mental capability mill. And nobody with legitimate concerns is going to be impressed by Biden blowing the roof off at friendly rallies. It is what it is.
Here’s the two solutions, and they both perform exactly the same way;
- Biden digs his heels in, claims he’s compos mentis, and fights on. It’s his decision to make, he’s the President, the presumptive nominee, and it’s his party. If he does that, then the entire Democratic party immediately does a 2020. Naysayers and doubting Thomases like Tim Ryan, Julian Castro, Katy Tur, and yes, ME immediately shut the f*ck up, and lock into turning the next four months into a constant, nonstop indictment and condemnation of Donald Trump
- The second option is that over the next few weeks close confidants and friends convince Biden that the only responsible thing to do is to drop out of the race. Biden gives an emotional, powerful speech, highlighting his pride in his career and accomplishments, but relating his decision that it’s time to turn the mantle over, nominating Kamala Harris as presumptive nominee, and working his ass off for her. Again, the Biden forces shut up, suck it up for the boss one last time, and the Democrats spend the next four months ceaselessly hammering Il Douche and his nefarious plans
Either way, the secret sauce out of this mess is Democratic unity, up and down the ticket and everywhere in between for the nominee, and a ceaseless barrage against Trump. If Biden is the nominee, and it’s a referendum on him and his mental awareness, we’re sunk. Trump will sit back and let the party tear itself apart. And if the nominee is Harris, and the spotlight is on her being a last minute replacement for a feeble and infirm President, then the same goddamned thing applies.
The only way that any of this works is the Democrats can turn this election into an indictment of a criminal, rogue dictator wanna be. In this scenario Kamala Harris is a more effective attack dog than the polite, collegial Biden, but if Biden is the candidate, both her and Doug are going to be living on the road, prosecuting the case against Trump. As hopefully will be Eric Swalwell, Dr. Jill Biden, Adam Schiff, Speaker Emeritus Pelosi, Jim Clyburn, DNC Chair Jamie Harrison, and every other Democrat with national name recognition.
And the beauty is that Trump is such an endless cornucopia of material that Biden, Harris, and the surrogates won’t even have to repeat themselves or each other. 34 criminal convictions, his eventual sentencing, $454 million in civil fraud settlements, $89 million in civil defamation payments, trump U, the Trump Foundation, Trump’s desire to Be a dictator on Day One. Sleazy hush money payments to a porn star. And for dessert, read word for word some of the most devastating articles in Project 2025, and then tell the people exactly what it means for our democracy.
Every Democratic incumbent or candidate can use Trump and the slavish devotion of the MAGA GOP to hammer their opponents with. Make the indictment of Trump a scathing indictment of the down ballot MAGA minions, and let them try to bullsh*t their way out of it.
There was reporting on MSNBC today that the RNC and Trump campaign are having cardiac kittens at the way this whole Project 2025 is blowing up in their faces in the media and with voters. Let’s clean up this sh*t quickly and cleanly, no matter what the outcome, and turn our attention into turning it into a living hell for them.
Look, Biden said it, and God knows that in 20 years of hockey I’ve done it, When you get knocked down, you get back up again! The only question is, do you get up smarter, or do you end up on your ass again? We were smart in 2020, and not a goddamned thing has changed in four years. The same playbook will work in 2024, especially with so much more material to use. The only question is who the lead singer for this band is going to be? Let’s figure this out most riki-tik, be like Larry the Cable Guy, and Git ‘er done!
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
Excellent article Murphy. Found this on Quora:
There are two choices, but only the first will work.
That is because Kamala Harris simply cannot get all the Biden votes, and the very fact of the party doing what Trump wants and what he predicted, namely Biden dropping out, would be disastrous to Dem chances. And Harris would get lambasted way worse than Biden.
In other words, the Democratic stalwarts you reference would be vastly more effective in choice one than on choice two.
And the Black voters would still come out for Harris as Veep candidate.
Incidentally, the idea that Trump can get any significant Black vote is just spin bullshit.
I agree that only the first choice will work. ONLY President Biden can beat that orange con job. Only President Biden can beat him. And he has stated that he is staying in the race and got a nice boost in the polling after stating that he was in it for the long run. If we can believe the polls, that just means, in my opinion, that the public is firmly behind President Biden! So let’s stop with all the nonsense and send in contributions, send letters to our elected officials, including the President, showing our support for our dear President. He has done so much. He has Union support. That’s pretty powerful stuff. They see how he is uplifting the middle class and creating solid jobs. He’s done so much more and has much more to do. We have to stand behind President Biden, period!
I respectfully Dissent…Harris is a better attack dog than Biden, younger and more progressive to motivate the youth vote jungry for power, will Fire up the African American community to vote in the 1st Black woman Presieent, and will OWN the abortion issue, which is still one of the hottest issues out there…Either one can win if they follow the playbook…
She can be the attack dog FOR Biden!
Murf…sometimes you’ve got to stir shit up just to get people to pay attention. You’re right about timing being paramount to whatever path Biden takes. Washington turned the tide on the smug British by attacking instead of defending. Time to increase the attack on trump’s EVIL track record and PLANS.
Yes, the media did a job, parroting GOP talking points into a full frontal attack on Biden. Time to stop feeling sorry for ourselves and Deal With It. Remember what was done to John Kerry and don’t let it happen again! Like Murph said, TFG is a neverending source of material, so get busy and use it!
Hell, remember how the media went after Hillary–not just in 2016 but also in 2008.
There wasn’t a GOP talking point that wasn’t used against Hillary and, especially in 2008, even among “certain” Democrats. I remember 2008 very well. EVERYONE was saying that ANY Democrat would become President after the 8 years of Bush 43. Oh, ANY Democrat except Hillary, that is. Her biggest flaw among a certain group of Democrats? Her Iraq War authorization vote. Of course, the Democrats who excoriated her for that didn’t have that much of a problem with putting Biden on the ticket (he was “needed” to give Obama some “gravitas”) and, of course, Obama couldn’t vote on that issue, given his being in the Illinois Legislature at the time. But absolutely NONE of the other Democratic candidates at the time who’d served in the House or Senate had opposed that authorization vote. (It was rather amazing how, in 2016, that vote came back again because Bernie had opposed it–but, even more amazingly, Bernie’s very tone-deaf reaction after Sandy Hook, especially in light of his pro-gun rights position, didn’t seem to hurt him; Bernie had actually voted against legislation that came after Sandy Hook but the “progressives” weren’t upset. Hillary’s “war vote” was still a more “important” issue.)
And, back in 2008, some news correspondent (I want to say he was with NBC at the time) actually said–publicly–something on the line that “someone should take Hillary into a closet until he comes out.” And, of course, Hillary was accused of “pimping out” Chelsea (who was in her late 20s at the time) during the 2008 campaign; IMS, the reporter who said that was taken to the woodshed by his network employers and forced to apologize–but the comment was already out there.
Democrats need to emphatically point out media bias when it occurs. The GOP has successfully used this strategy for decades, to the point that networks (except all the reich-wing ones, of course) bend over backwards to appear “fair” It’s obvious now that media corporations are in it for profit, not for fairness or objectivity.
Well, a 3rd option might be Mark Cuban for PRESIDENT. He’s a REAL billionaire, that proudly pays millions in federal taxes, is VASTLY more intelligent than djt, and most of all HATES djt, and all his minions, and could probably actually REALLY unite this country. I believe he would win in such a land slide, it would be RIDICULOUS. # Mark Cuban for president.
Mark Cuban is in Biden’s corner. That’s fine. That’s where he can do the most good.
1. KH as attack dog: she will/should be in full bared teeth mode in any case; fighting for her job as VP and,
2. in the VP role, become more like Cheney to Bush, taking the pressure of her President and,
3. Being there, in readiness and experience, in the event of Biden’s health fading.
AND
Another thought: think of the difference in the world in 2028 and beyond – 4 Trump/Project 25 years would scorch the land, leaving it barren, against 4 Biden/Harris years tending and growing it, leaving it green and fertile.
There is no choice: ONWARDS!!
Forgot to say it’s not Old Man v Con Man
OLDER Man v Con Man
I strongly agree! And IIRC, incumbent presidents, especially in difficult times, typically do not campaign that much. They are not expected to, they are just too busy putting out fires. Rather, the VP candidate and all the party hard-hitters campaign for him.
This may indeed be Biden’s problem, more than his age. He himself indicated as much, and I see no reason for doubt considering all the stuff he has to deal with. — “I need to get more sleep.”
I don’t get why this race is even close. Dems should be winning even if the candidate running against Trump were a zombie pumpkin.
A huge number of psychiatrists and psychologists have diagnosed Trump.as a malignant narcissist who lies every time he opens his mouth. It isn’t as if his lies have not been thoroughly and frequently debunked. And before someone says those shrinks haven’t done an intake interview: they don’t need to. There are hours and hours of videos for them to watch that reveal his nature. There fare also neurologists who have pointed out that he has major symptoms of moderate dementia,,and it is progressing. Biden on the other hand simply has mild age-related issues but no.signs of dementia, and he has the capacity of knowing what he doesn’t know and listens to.experts.This should be a slam dunk. But it isn’t.
Biden has a real problem with young voters who are horrified over his aiding and abetting the Israelis’ genocide of Palestinians, and, to do it, his violations of the U.S. law he swore see properly executed, in addition to his violations of international law for the purpose. He also has the same problem with me. But I’m 85, and know that we have to save democracy, period. So I would like to see Biden step aside. It’s not his age. It’s his obvious cognitive debility. Harris is no pushover, and she apparently has not supported genocide.