The Wave Of Congressional Retirements Is Growing

Just as I started to write this the appeals hearing in DC came on. Since the audio aired live I chose to listen, and while I want to talk about my thoughts I want to digest both what I heard, and also legal commentary. So I’m back to where I was a couple of hours ago and contemplating something I hadn’t considered – the effects of being home and surrounded by family and friends and away from the “Capitol Hill Crazy” is having on Congress Critters. Prior to the holiday break we’d already seen a large number of retirement announcements, especially on the House side. However, an article by Axios I read this morning suggests several new ones just announced were from people who having a does of normal decided even the perks of power Congress Critters get simply isn’t worth the cost. AND that there are indications plenty more retirements are coming.

According to Axios members are complaining the combination of chaos and the overall lack of productivity this past year makes Congress “unfruitful.” It’s hard to disagree with anyone who says that whether they are in Congress or regular folks like you and me who sit in wonder over what the House in particular has been like. (The Senate seems to have people working to turn the upper chamber into the more chaotic style the House has traditionally been) What struck me though was the article’s noting the effect being home for the holidays seems to have had:

What we’re hearing: One House Republican, speaking on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly about internal conference dynamics, cited two factors that likely led to the sudden rush of retirements.

1. A long recess reminding members of the comforts of home and family life, away from the often back-biting atmosphere of Washington, D.C.

2.The desire to wait until close to their state’s federal candidacy filing deadlines in order to “orchestrate succession” for their seat.

The article also notes numerous states have months before the filing deadline for primaries suggesting as I said the “wave” is going to grow. By a lot. Conventional wisdom has Democrats retaking the House and even by a comfortable margin. I still like our chances but don’t think it will be the cakewalk we assume. An article I read before the holidays (wish I’d bookmarked it) indicated that an already significant list of retirements gave an edge to the GOP. It discussed seats that leaned solidly towards one Party or the other but also something else that’s significant. Redistricting.

For example, In North Carolina where I live we are going to lose several seats at least due to a “mid round” but of redistricting thanks to a turncoat from down Charlotte way flipping to the GOP (AFTER she was sworn in having won as a Democrat) and making our heavily gerrymandered statehouse veto-proof again. Similar efforts are underway in other places. Even in Democratic New York redistricting will help us some but maybe not as much as people assume. The days of redistricting after a census and waiting ten years are over. The GOP knows it can’t win fair and square so they use some pretty outrageous tactics to gain and/or hold on to power.

But there are other individual districts that are cause for concern. Off the top of my head I can think of two where we are in trouble, one in California and another in Virginia. Out in California House and National Treasure Katie Porter eked out a win a couple of cycles ago in a district that had always been solidly GOP. She’s impressive as hell and won re-election but she’s truly special and I don’t see another Democrat being able to pull off her feat. In Virginia, Abagail Spanburger is a more moderate Democrat who has managed to win and win re-election in a tough district for us. She’s leaving to mount a campaign for Governor of Virginia. The state would be lucky to have her in that role and I wish her the best. Btw she’s only 49. Virginia Governors can’t run for re-election so if she wins what’s next? The Senate if there’s an opening? Or even a Presidential run? She is after all only 44 years old and she’s already got an impressive pedigree.

The Axios article notes that six of the House Democrats resigning are doing so to run for Senate. In California in addition to Porter the equally impressive Adam Schiff is running for Dianne Feinstein’s old seat. In Michigan, Senator Debbie Stabinow is leaving and Elissa Slotkin has formally announced she’ll be running for that seat to keep it in Democratic hands. I like her odds, and did even before the turmoil that’s erupted with the Michigan GOP in the past week. However, holding on to Slotkin’s seat might not be easy.

Now, we DO have around twenty freshman House members who were elected from what are called “Biden Districts” – congressional districts that Joe Biden won in 2020. Here on PZ Murfster has mentioned them and their problem multiple times. Well, when push came to shove they sided with the crazies in some recent key votes. They will probably try to backtrack as the year progresses, at least on the issue of keeping the government funded and hopefully aid for Ukraine. So there’s that.

And that’s where we get to the heart of this growing wave of retirements. There are two question. Will it grow from significant to huge? The second is how many retirements will be from seats that are largely immune from changing hands from one Party to the other?  I know with all the Trump legal stuff, and the Presidential contest starting in earnest with President Biden starting to get out of the WH and campaign it will be natural to focus our attention on all that.

However, control of Congress matters too. We can hang onto the Senate but doing so will be damned tough. However, regaining control of the House might be tougher than we’ve been assuming. So, keep an eye on retirements from both the House and Senate, but especially the House but drill down. As new batches of retirements are announced take a moment to see whether those packing it in are from “safe” districts unlikely to change hands. So far the GOP has the edge on this measure so don’t go assuming this time next year Hakeem Jeffries will be wielding the Speaker’s gavel.