The War In Ukraine Has Become Putin’s (and Russia’s?) Murder-Suicide Writ Large

(Trigger warning – for those who have been impacted by the worst outcome of domestic violence this will contain difficult things to read)

Every single day and in appalling numbers we see instances not only in this country but everywhere around the world where someone decides if they can’t have the person they want then no one can.   It’s usually but not always a guy who is so enraged by the rejection from a spouse, lover or (sadly it goes this far) person they are obsessed with but won’t even date them that they decide to murder that person and then commit suicide.   It is a truly ugly thing and I say that as someone who has seen bodies (usually the gunshots are to the head) on slabs in morgues or prep tables who are the victims or perpetrators of this ugliest of results of domestic violence.   Worse still, sometimes the murderer kills other friends. family or (sometimes real, sometimes only perceived) romantic rivals.   It’s an appallingly ugly and tragic aspect of human behavior but it’s all too real and much more common than people want to think about.    Bad as it is, there is something worse and history shows us it’s not limited to individual people, or even groups such as cults (the tragedy Jim Jones created at Jonestown, or David Koresh in Waco come to mind) but on an even larger level, hence the title of this piece.

There’s a saying that War is Murder Writ Large. (Sometimes the term armed robbery is used but any war results in innocent, non-combatants dying so I think Murder is the right adjective)  I believe this is particularly important to keep in mind when a war of choice is started because a dictator/country isn’t under threat of attack, but simply covets more territory and/or the resources located in another country/countries.   Instead of negotiating a dictator/country decides to take a country by force.   By going to war, with all the destruction and killing that is part of any war.   Ukraine, even a Ukraine moving towards meeting the requirements for and gaining membership in NATO was no threat to Russia.  It was only a threat to Putin’s vision, his dream of a restored USSR combined with a common Russian self-delusion that Ukraine was “historically” part of Russia.  The reality is that Ukraine was a country with a language and culture al its own,  I had even developed to the point of having large architectural wonders that included some impressive churches when roughly a thousand years ago some of it’s people decided to explore east and settle new lands, far from the border of Ukraine.   Over time these settlers grew in number and would create another country with a similar yet different language and culture than Ukraine.  We now of course know it as Russia.   (It’s worth noting that even when powerful Russia has a centuries long history of having a massive inferiority complex)

Despite actual history, Putin has spent his life believing to his very core that Ukraine is really Russian soil.  (I must add that generations of Russians have grown up being taught the same thing)  He has for a long time tried to convince them (Ukraine and its people) of it, and over a period of years put considerable effort into putting enough people in power to run day-to-day stuff in Ukraine towards his goal of getting Ukrainians to accept his “truth.”   And Ukraine has repeatedly said no and not just no, but actively resisted him!

Ukrainians rose up and kicked his Party of Regions puppet government out of power, and caused his hand-picked puppet President to literally flee back to Russia.   When those disputed areas on Ukraine’s eastern border with Russia, filled with Russian settlers decided to try and not only break away, but expand their influence throughout more of Ukraine, Ukraine said no.   And fought back.   If unable to retake control of those areas, Ukraine has at least contained them.   More importantly the combat allowed them to learn, and with their adoption of a western military model and training develop a small but highly competent armed forces with plenty of reservists who’d gained experience in the eastern part of the country before returning to civilian life.   The “on paper advantage” Russia had was still real, but never as much as it appeared.    And as we know the quality of their planes, tanks and other equipment was nowhere near what Putin thought it was.   Run a corrupt country that’s been so back in the days of the USSR and an army (and air force) that took a beating in Afghanistan AND continued to use the same model of conscription, training and “leadership” and the results are there for all to see.

I find myself wondering if, as good as our intelligence has been we knew all along that if Russia actually invaded and Ukraine stood firm that they’d hold.   I say that because of the remarkable speed with which weapons and other support has flooded into Ukraine all along.   That couldn’t have happened without some serious prep work behind the scenes.   However, a demonstrated political will from Ukraine was needed to green-light the process when the time came.   There’s no verification that Zelinsky specifcally made the now famous I don’t need a ride – I need weapons statement but I can imagine him making clear behind the scenes he was staying put even if it cost him his life and NATO better make good on its promises of support to Ukraine.   The point though is that quote went viral and cut the knees out from most people here and in other NATO countries about shoveling as much aid to Ukraine and as fast as possible.   Well, the important thing is that here in the U.S. even a lot of GOP critters still deathly afraid of Trump calling them out grew a bit of spine and went along with what should have been a “Duh – hell yes we’ll support Ukraine” choice.

As a result Ukraine held.   Then it started kicking Russia’s armed forces in the teeth.    Ukraine drove them not just away from their Capitol city of Kyiv but back over the border into Belarus.   To add insult to Russian injury they took captured Russian equipment, fixed it up and started using it themselves.   In other places they slowed Russia down, then started driving them back, retaking some towns and cities in the process.   Russia failed to take over Ukraine, and had to stage a strategic retreat to reassemble a large force and (in theory) concentrate it.   (That doesn’t appear to have worked very well either, at least so far)   Russia hasn’t won, has become more and more isolated on the world stage and economically and for all intents and purposes has lost already.    Putin’s grand vision, which probably included fresh video of him riding without a shirt on a horse across the vast plains of Ukraine is in a shambles.

Putin’s ego, his feelings are butt-hurt.   His military has been exposed as second rate with clear outline of it being more third rate in the first place.   And here we are, now wondering when and how this tragic madness will end.   Not to mention the what comes after part.

Here’s a sobering thing to ponder.  We all remember those initial couple of weeks or so, when again and again stories about rank & file Russian conscripts never expected to find themselves in a shooting war.   They were told it was only a massive exercise.   Some I’m sure (perhaps many) knew Putin hoped to scare Ukraine into capitulating – as I said the belief Ukraine is really part of Russia is widespread in Russia.   However even those troops didn’t want any part of an actual war and from the time they crossed the border they were getting shot at.   Tanks and other equipment was being destroyed.   Russian soldiers were getting killed or captured and some of their guys were saying “screw this” and surrendering.   It only got worse from there for them.   Any who had at least partial understanding of Putin’s strategy of bluffing/bullying Ukraine into submission knew they were in trouble.   They also knew many of their officers were no good.  (and unlike our troops or in other western armies they also knew their NCOs weren’t capable of competent leadership) They knew how unreliable their own tanks and vehicles were.    More important still they learned the (very) hard way they were actually outmatched by the Ukrainian forces opposing them.

Morale, never high in the Russian military since WWII dropped even lower.   More of their own people died or were wounded.   Part of them just wanted to go home, but they were stuck in place and as happens in war for many their hearts started to harden.   And war crimes started happening.   Those war crimes got worse, and while I’m sure some of those that shelled civilian targets followed orders to keep from being shot I know some decided they wanted payback for lost comrades.   That’s one of the awful things that happens in war zones.   Soldiers begin to think in ways, and do things that had they not become part of a war that they’d have never done, or condoned others doing.    The longer this war has gone on, and the longer it goes on the willingness of the average Russian soldier to commit war crimes, to kill and terrorize civilians will increase.    Again I remind you that Russia is a country with a massive inferiority complex and Ukrainians are and will continue to pay the price as Russian troops take out their frustrations not on the person(s) that have put them where they are but on “those” people – in this case Ukrainians and since civilians are much less likely to shoot back that has become the target of Russian line units.

Putin knows this.   He knows that if he orders ever more wanton destruction of property and killing of civilians more and more of his troops will go along.   Putin would like to have a more or less intact Ukraine with a more or less working infrastructure and especially all that farmland.  Not gonna happen but the important thing to keep in mind is that the harder the realization of his Vlad the Conqueror dream’s failure sets in, the darker his thoughts and actions will become.   He knows he’s already self-owned/boned himself in those moments when he’s honest with himself.   So, I believe he already made the decision that if HE can’t have it then for damned sure he’ll make sure Ukrainians can’t either.   It gets worse though.

Russia is being gutted by sanctions.   Sure they, and in particular Putin and his oligarch pals have had experience in evading them and are surely getting around some of what’s been imposed.   However, the noose has been tightening.   Much of their ill gotten wealth has been frozen or forfeited and with so many countries cooperating it’s going to get worse.   That’s bad enough, but the weaker Russia gets (and it’s getting weaker every day) various tinpot dictators might just decide that instead of parking some of that Russian wealth for a fee, they might just help themselves to the whole kit and kaboodle!   Or, just as bad for Putin and pals decide to try and buy themselves out of their own international/diplomatic troubles by reporting it so it can be seized and used to rebuild Ukraine.

So, there’s that wealth that’s in limbo.  However there’s also that of Russia itself.   Their own people, average folks who just want to live their lives and see their loved ones be okay are suffering and its only going to get worse.    Let’s face it – the Russian people as a whole won’t be a priority when all this is over.   Ukraine will demand reparations from Russia, which will have little to give.   A 21st Century Marshall plan to rebuild Ukraine but also help modernize Russia would be a great thing to do.   However, particularly in this country which would have to lead the effort I think it’s safe to say that will be a political non-starter.   Russia isn’t the only country that messed up (by not changing their military) if you look back at things.   While most of the world knew the open secret that we’d funded the Afghan resistance, most Afghans didn’t!    Much of the movie Charlie Wilson’s war was true – it’s said by some (including Wilson before he died) that a lot was left out because incredible as much of what we saw happened, even wilder stuff was left out because they knew people wouldn’t believe it.   One thing that was true however was that Wilson pressed for a couple of million a year (which would have gone a LONG way in Afghanistan back then) be allocated to build & staff medical clinics and schools.   Republicans in the administration and Congress and even a lot of Democrats blew him off.   They didn’t get the simple fact that Afghans didn’t know who it was that made it possible for them to drive out the USSR.   So we remained mostly distrusted.

Do you think today’s conservatives (and “moderate” Democrats for that matter) will be any different in this political environment about helping Russia (one that can’t threaten its neighbors) back on its feet?   Oh hell no.   They will treat it as we and the allies did Germany after WWI and this will all happen again – another case of history maybe not repeating but rhyming.   But that’s another point for another day.

The main issue is that Putin is willing to bleed his own country and people dry.   To leave it destitute and maybe with a good portion of it destroyed by forcing Ukraine and its allies in NATO to take the fight into Russia to depose Putin if his own people won’t do it.   Because Putin either wins or he dies and he knows it.  And again, in a mind and ego as diseased and depraved as his Putin is someone who won’t stop with Ukraine, but will do all he can to make sure that if HE can’t rule the Russia he’s dreamed of and be worshipped like a God then by golly no one will be able to rebuild from the ruins of Russia he will leave behind with his death.

Whether by his own hand rather than give someone in his circle who wants to take over, or try to rescue anything that’s left of Russia the satisfaction put a gun in his mouth, or do his own version of “suicide by cop” Putin is going to wind up dead.   That is not only now haunting his dreams, but some of his waking moments as well.   He’s got exactly the mental makeup of a person who decides that if he can’t have what he wants then no one else can, and he’ll do his level best to make sure there is no Ukraine worth living in left, nor a Russia he will feel has betrayed him either.

Ugly as it is to think about, imagine the worst of domestic violence on an international scale because it’s happening right now.

Putin is a dead man walking, and I think he knows it which takes me back to the beginning.  He is filled with delusions of grandeur that have gone unfulfilled and as that has set in and continues to occupy (with increasing frequency) his thoughts I think he will try one last lashing out.   Order a massive last ditch “all hands” attack on every civilian target in Ukraine and the reaction by the world will force Russia’s military and oligarch class’ hand.  Or he will order widespread WMD use and again force their hand – because they will in the latter instance refuse and then being the coward he is he will take his own life.

But I think the first scenario is the most likely.   Those orders will likely be carried out and when that doesn’t work and he sees it hasn’t worked he will know his days are numbered.   That there is literally no one he can trust.   He won’t be able to take it.   Rather than meet the fate Saddam did he will take his own life.

But first he will use the machinery of war to create unspeakable amounts of death far beyond what we have already seen in a “If I can’t have Ukraine then nobody can have a Ukraine worth having” mentality.   Just like the a-hole who takes their gun and murders their spouse/lover and maybe any kids they have before turning the gun on themselves.

It happens every day in this country and in every other country.   (If not with a gun then with something else)   But I fear we are seeing it happen in slow motion with this war in Ukraine, albeit with the worst yet to come.

Murder-Suicide Write Large.

Support the site with a subscription today and see no more ads!

Go Ad-free Now!