Why does it have to be bad! You know I can’t take bad news in the morning! Prince John Robin Hood Men In Tights
Over the last couple of days, there has been a slew of new polling come out, and it is universally terrible for Trump. Nationally, Trump is trailing Biden by close to, if not double digits. The striking thing here is the almost eerie immovability of the national polls. Despite varied attacks against Biden, and a failed attempt to terrify suburban women of dark criminals about to overwhelm their suburbs, he can’t move the needle. NBC’s first electoral map, which shows the probable electoral college outcome based on today’s polls, shows Biden sweeping PA, MI, WI, AZ, NC, and FL. He would have 334 electoral votes to Trump’s 124, with TX, OH, IA and GA as toss ups!
But there has also been a slew of new state polling come out, and the news is no better for Trump. And I’m not talking about battleground states here, I’m talking about states that have no business even being on the map this year. Trump won Iowa by a dime in 2016, he’s +1 today. He won Texas by 7, he’s in a dead heat today. He won North Carolina by 7, and he’s now -4. He won AZ by 1.5, where he’s now -4.
But here’s the hidden bad news for the entire GOP, especially for the Senate in these state polls. I have mentioned before that Trump is almost unique among American Presidents, due to the fact that his political coat tails are about the length of a windbreaker. Even though lagging from his 2016 numbers, while Trump may be able to carry a state, nobody else behind him is going to ride his popularity to victory.
Let’s see. Right now, Trump is -4 against Biden in North Carolina, yet incumbent GOP Senator Thom Tillis is -7 again st his opponent. In Iowa, Trump is barely hanging on, being +1, yet incumbent Joni Ernst is -2 against her challenger. In freakin’ South Carolina, where Trump is +7 against Biden, Leningrad Lindsey Graham is dead even with Jamie Harrison, 44-44. In Arizona, Trump is trailing Biden by 3 points, yet Martha McSally is 8 points behind Mark Kelly.
This shouldn’t be happening! There have been unpopular presidents before going into the final months of an election, but incumbents, especially Senate incumbents, have a built in advantage. That is their name recognition in the state, as well as their record of accomplishment for their constituents. Incumbents simply lick their finger, stick it up into the wind, see which way it’s blowing, gently separate themselves from the unpopular president, and run on their record instead.
This is the political cancer that is Donald Trump. By insisting on fawning obedience from his entire caucus, especially in the Senate, Trump has tied the Senate GOP caucus so tightly to him that they can’r even get and arms length away from him to try to save themselves. Worse yet, the fact that in several states GOP Senate incumbents are under performing Trump in polling, means that their constituents are even more pissed at them than they are at Trump.
This is only going to get worse. People keep saying there’s a long way to go yet, but they’re full of shit. The national polls have been rock solid for months, no more than a 1 point change for Trump, and often getting worse. Trump won’t change, hell, he’s incapable of it. In Kentucky right now, a state that Trump won by 20+ points in 2016, McConnell is only +5 against Amy Mcgrath in the latest poll. Every day that goes by without a new supplemental aid package for the American people, the more it rests on McConnell’s doorstep. And one pollster on MSNBC said today that her recent survey groups shows that Trump is now bleeding rural women for God’s sake! Don’t touch that dial.
To know the future, look to the past.before the insanity of the 2020 election, relive the insanity of the 2016 GOP primary campaign, and the general election, to see how we got to where we are. Copies of President Evil, and the sequel, President Evil II, A Clodwork Orange are available as e-books on Amazon, at the links above. Catch up before the upcoming release of the third book in the trilogy, President Evil III: All The Presidents Fen
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Don’t hang on his short coat tails Hang on his over long tie. You can strangle him more easily when he misbehaves.
Biden is turning out to be a very good candidate. As to policy, I am more in line with Warren and Yang, but I have a feeling Biden is going to”Beat Trump like a drum.” As to Democrats in general, I have never seen anything like this in my life. Of course you all know that because you haven’t either. We are on the cusp of a new age.
I have to say that I completely underestimated Uncle Joe. Then again, when the opposition is this stupid and pandemic this bad, that helps too. There’s been talk of a blue tsunami in November. The chatter among the Never Trumpers recently seems to lend credence to such as does McConnell basically giving up on working on coronavirus aid. Mark my words: this could well be the biggest paradigm shifting election since 1980.
You can tell how bad it is in both the House and the Senate: the people trying to get a second bill through are Pelosi and Schumer, and they’re dealing with (or trying to deal with) Munchkin and Tea-Party Mark Meadows.
Sad that the latter two are the only “adults” left in the Republican room, isn’t it, P J?
My county’s Democratic Party is now advertising online and in e-mails to all Dems, including me, that there are blue tsunami covid-19 masks now available for all of us to really drive the points home while we stay safe. This is brilliant strategy–we can wear our affiliation and our confidence while we’re out and about doing the stuff we can’t avoid.
When it comes to the Senate, I find it interesting that McConnell has been as sullen as Trump lately. He’s even less engaged in the negotiations for a new relief package to deal with the pandemic than Trump is. For years McConnell treated Trump as a rubber stamp to turn all his wet-dreams into reality, and ruthlessly ruled GOP Senate Republicans. All those lockstep or virtual lockstep votes to support Trump’s nominees, round three of “supply side” tax cuts and such might turn out to have come at a cost. Then there was the impeachment vote. Only Romney cast a vote to convict and even then only on one count. Had the GOP Senators done their job Trump would have been tossed out of Office but I’m starting to think the GOP cowardice was the straw that broke the camel’s back. Much as he deserved it Trump was never going to be removed from Office but I believe it was more fear of McConnell than fear of Trump that prevented 60-10 Republican Senators voting to convict especially with Romney showing them the way by splitting their votes on the two articles of impeachment.
With that I believe McConnell turned the entire GOP Senate Caucus into the proverbial rubbers stamp and the sucker melted into all their clothing and burned their skins. All of them, even Romney (although in his case to a much lesser degree) have (Trump) orange blotches on them they can’t get rid of any more than they can get actual melted rubber out of their clothes or hide the burn scars on their skin. It was apparent that Trump would run the same kind of campaign he did last time, and while they thought “the economy” (at the time) would be sound and give him a shot they knew in their hearts that it took a “perfect storm” in 2016 and the signs were already evident the country, and especially Independents and those suburban GOP women were sick and tired of Trump’s schtick. Sure, they had to be concerned about getting primaried if Trump went after them on twitter but I think it was what McConnell could do to them in the inner workings of the Senate that really scared the shit out of them.
I suspect if there were to be a secret poll of most hated person in the Senate Ted Cruz has lost his position to McConnell, even within the GOP itself and by a large margin with McConnell’s own caucus!
While I’m not at all confident this is over because I know full well just how ugly things are going to get with this election McConnell is genuinely worried about possibly losing the Senate. Even with a Democratic President he’d have political cover that would also afford him some legal cover – and that deal he engineered with the notorious Putin crony Oleg Derespaska will invite some of the kind of scrutiny from a Democratic AG that McConnell can ill afford. Worse, as Biden is giving real indications of understanding that the “old school” ways of the Senate are finally going to modernize he can’ count of an “old school” appeal to save his ass. He’s abused that system beyond all measure and he knows it. Hell, he jettisoned much of it himself in the past few years! And now, he even has a challenger that’s behind him in the polls back home but in a race where over twenty percent (more than his lead plus the margin of error) isn’t well known or defined statewide and SHE is not only getting room to define herself in a positive way but reinforce HIS unpopular image in the state! IOW he’s going to have to spend real time, effort and money just to ensure he hangs on to his seat which means he and the RNSC can’t devote as much resources to other states with vulnerable GOP seats.
So, McConnell surgically attached himself to Trump like that “Humancentipad” from that South Park episode but there’s no way at this point he can undo the procedure – he’s like Siamese twins that share the same heart and therefore can’t be separated. And the way events have unfolded this year, with the Presidential opponent he as well as Trump most feared & Trump being Trump everything Trump does is like a game of capture the flag with Trump handing over a new flag every day. And in the process handing over flags of an increasing number of GOP candidates including Senate ones. For all McConnell’s efforts, even should he survive (at this point I still think he will) November’s election there’s a good chance he’ll no longer be majority leader without a level of fuckery that will destroy this country. And lots of folks in Kentucky have actual pitchforks.
No wonder McConnell has pretty much sat out negotiations on the relief bill. He’s in a Donald Trump type funk, realizing that those square pegs just won’t go in the round holes and since he purposely filled up the round holes all he can do is hope for divine, or not-so-divine (IOW massive electoral lawbreaking AND major help from Putin) intervention. Again, I want to emphasize this ain’t over, especially with Billy Barr literally on the case marshalling the entire power of the DOJ to protect Trump and the GOP. But McConnell is genuinely worried about his future. Some think he can just rely on his wife and her family’s money and connections in China to live out his life in comfort. But remember, his wife is Chinese and business is business and her daddy and the family will cut her loose if need be for the family business – women are not well regarded in that culture to begin with.
So in the end I think McConnell probably never worried about Trump’s lack of coattails when it came to the Senate, figuring HE could provide all the coattails that were needed. He ruled his caucus with an iron fist and convinced them of it in fact. Now all bets are off and if as we’ve been led to believe The Lincoln Project (and others) has stuff teed up and ready to go against GOP Senators similar to what they’ve been running against Trump it’s no wonder McConnell is like the spoiled rich kid who’s daddy has for once denied him something he really, really wanted and is off in his room sulking most of the time.
McConnell is effed. Even if he keeps his seat, his power and prestige are ruined. Such is the fate of a fool who mistook Trump for Reagan Redux. “When the gods wish to punish us, they answer our prayers.” –Oscar Wilde, “An Ideal Husband”
With all due respect to the Mel Brooks quote at the beginning, the Prince John Trump increasingly reminds me of is the one in the Disney cartoon of Robin Hood as voiced by Peter Ustinov: evil, greedy, petulant, full of mommy issues and jaw-droppingly stupid. Small wonder he’s doing so badly.
And yeah, that “long way to go” crap is just that. It’s August, people, which means we’re down to less than three months. Most of the narrative has been baked into the cake, thanks to COVID 19 and blind GOP obedience. While a curveball COULD happen, those are a lot more rare than too many people want to pretend.
With Americans facing Covid, unemployment, racial strife, they are not changing their minds anytime soon. He is not DOING anything to help those situations and most of us do not want to listen to the drivel coming out of his mouth. So, I agree and I don’t see anything that he could say or do to change the course of events.
Thank you, Cherl, for understanding EXACTLY where I was coming from.
So true Cherl. Thinking a good many Americans are now, at long last, done with this lunacy. Even, just me here, often not willing to watch stuff I’d otherwise be interested in. It is so wearing and as Bareshark says, the narrative is baked into the cake at this point so it’s okay for us to take a well-deserved rest from some of this to get our strength back and then take on the final few months of this with a resolve and the conviction that we’re going to be okay. I know this may be premature, but then, a half full glass is looking to be the new trope.
Prince John is the wrong fictional (at least as portrayed in the movie) character. I’ve maintained for a long time that Mordred from the musical Camelot, specifically performing The Seven Deadly Virtues is the perfect comparison. I’d dearly love for Hugh Jackman (who has serious vocal and dancing chops for musical theater) to dress up like Trump and do a video of the song.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCP76JTY4kE
Don’t know that one, Denis, and Peter Ustinov screaming “I am king, KIIIING! Off with his head!” is Trump to a tee.
It’s impossible for me to be sure of my favorite musical but Camelot is right there. I can say the role I most regret never having gotten to play was King Arthur in Camelot. My h.s. didn’t do a musical until my senior year and Mr. Biggs chose Oklahoma! to start the tradition. Much as I enjoyed it, two years later when Camelot was chosen I was bummed the hell out! I never got another chance at it back in my performing days as no college or community production of it ever took place. Even after getting stationed in the DC area I’d pay attention to community productions and never saw a production scheduled I could audition for in the almost twenty years I’d wind up spending in the DC area. Oh well.
I do think however that Mordred’s take on virtue is exactly how Trump thinks. Contempt for each and every virtue, and a rock solid belief he’s entitled to any vice he feels like committing.
Ballots will start going out in September and a lot of people will be voting – by mail or otherwise – in October.
Count me as an early mail-in voter, P J. Thank you, Davidson County, for doing TN a solid in making that happen for all of us still scared of COVID 19.
Yep. Ditto for us here in Maryland. I sent the link to the online request for ballots to every person on our list who lives in MD. We have to request our ballots this time thanks to our Republican governor getting cheap on us for some silly reason. But at least the folks who get the ballots out to us are very good at what they do, so no worries. We’re looking at a blue tsunami of gigantic size here in MD. The western and very red part of our state can’t make even a teensy dent in the blue voting statewide.
You know, I don’t think any of these current poll numbers reflect the impacts of Trump saying Joe is going to “hurt God.” This one was to me so damned crazy sick I could even feel my cousins, who are diehard Trumpites, recoiling from it. All of them are devout Catholics and don’t take kindly to this sort of blasphemy.
All that being said, we should also remember that races tend to tighten as election day draws near even if the candidates don’t change a thing.
http://www.salaryapps.com