The Jig Is Up For DeSantis. The Moderate GOP Knows He’s A Trump Clone, And They Have A Plan. Maybe

I wrote recently that there was no shortage of moderate GOP groups that are willing to do almost anything to stop Trump, and some of them have been at it for quite a while now. And as much as I wish them well, I’ve come to look at them as a kind of a political version of my old beloved Chicago Cubs, loveable losers. God knows they try, but you play with what ya got, and in the 69’s there were years when the Yankees field maintenance crew had better athletes than the Cubs starting roster.

But there’s new reporting in Politico that indicates that the political Cubs just might be ready to make a run for the playoffs. Although it was never a secret, it is becoming more and more apparent that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is nothing more than Trump with better behaved hair. And there’s a Never Don and Never Ron underground that wants to capitalize on it. According to the report;

The result has been a subterranean primary campaign within the primary campaign: a battle for a third-ranking spot in the Republican nominating contest. It is a position that could attract a smaller coalition of traditional conservatives — as the former president and DeSantis fish from the same pond of more populist-minded GOP voters — but one that could provide an outside chance of winning.

This is important for a simple reason. While there have long been all of these groups wanting to foil Trump, they’ve all just tooled along doing their own thing. But if Politico’s report is correct, for the first time at least some if not all of these groups are starting to co-ordinate. And that’s critical because they all already have their own staffs, operatives, offices, funding, and specialties. Bringing them all together creates what is basically an underground moderate Republican party, a single place to coalesce the entire moderate anti Trump vote.

A couple of candidates are already pitching in, although possibly unknowingly. In the last week both Pence and Haley have sharply criticized Trump and DeSantis on several domestic and international positions, such as Ukraine, and drawn their similarities out for the audience. I wonder how long before some political wag photo shops Trump’s face over Mike Myers as Dr Evil in Austin Powers, and DeSantis’ face as Mini-Me.

I have written repeatedly that the biggest problem for the moderate GOP in 2024 will be that if the field is too large, the moderate vote gets splintered, and Trump reprises 2016 by winning the primaries with a 33% vote share. But according to the Politico report, this new coalition wants to deal with that proactively.

There goal is to merge behind the one moderate candidate in the field they believe will best be able to gather the vast majority of the moderate GOP renegades behind them. They’ll all provide all of their support and skills behind that one candidate. And the disaffected moderate GOP operatives, staff, and deep pocket voters will be more than happy to jump aboard, making it almost impossible for anybody else to sustain a campaign. If that one candidate can average at least in the mid 20-29% range, that could deny either Trump or DeSantis the requisite number of delegates for a clean victory, and set up a brutal floor fight.

So it’s possible. But even if they find that perfect moderate candidate, and all line up behind him or her, their underlying problem remains the same. Getting the lazy bastards out to vote in the primaries. Trump’s secret weapon is that his deranged 33% base will sleep out overnight in front of polling places as if they were queueing up for a Trump rally. They’ll vote. At this early stage, I don’t see that kind of devotion for DeSantis yet, and there’s no way to predict what moderates will do.

But there is reason to hope. After all, these lost should have spent eight years in the wilderness, trying to get their party back. If any one acceptable candidate, properly funded and supported isn’t enough to get those lost moderate GOP voters out en masse, not just to beat Trump, but his incumbent minions, then they just really don’t want their damn party back that bad, do they?

There it is. DeSantis has been busy branding himself as Trump without the baggage, but the more he opens his mouth, and his legislature cranks up the poison, he’s starting to look like a wayward husband who just got his ass kicked out of the house towing all his shit across town on his back. The disaffected moderate GOP base is large enough to pull this off. Primary Motivation is going to be the key, and that means finding the one acceptable candidate and properly marketing them. Don’t touch that dial.