“The Art Of Subtraction.” Why Biden Cost Trump The Election

The polls are looking good for Harris, but they’re within the margin of error, and you know what they say, polls are not dispositive, or predictive. But you know what damn near is dispositive? actual numbers and trend lines. And we’re starting to get some in.

Today heralds the start of early voting in MN, VA, and SD. And in MN and VA voting is through the roof. At one Manassas polling place in a swing district in a swing county, that polling place had more than 4,000 voters, 4X the record set in 2020. Polling places all over both states were showing extremely high voter turnout. In the era of Traitor Tot, early voting heavily favors Democrats, the enthusiasm is there.

Here’s the second one. In every battleground state voter registration is through the roof, and has been since Harris took over. And it’s most active in minority and suburban places, with heavy young voter registration. Two things we know. Voters registering this close to an election are highly likely to vote, or why bother to register at all? And Traitor Tot has torpedoed all local grassroots voter registration and activism, while the Democrats almost have more activists than they know what to do with hitting the streets and parking lots. Again, advantage Harris.

So, what does this have to do with Trump and Biden? This. As I’ve previously related, His Lowness and his campaign long ago gave up winning the national popular vote. Trump couldn’t win the national popular vote if he started another plague.

Instead his goal is to go to red parts of critical swing states and scrape off every last dollop of MAGA guano from his shoe that he can to squeak through the electoral college. That was part one. Part two was to depress as many Democratic voters as possible to give him the edge he needed.

And it was working like a charm. When it was a Trump-Biden matchup, polls showed that pretty much everybody but Trombies hated it. As a result, El Pendejo ex Presidente was leading in every swing state, often well outside of the margin of error.

And especially after Biden’s horrific debate performance, Trump had a smooth glide slope. Throw the Trombie base the rawest red meat, portray himself as strong and mentally stable, and portray Biden as a doddering old fool incapable of zipping up in the morning. And then sit back and watch Biden voters stay home or vote third party, giving him the slim majorities he needed to flip those swing states back.

And it was working. In fact, it worked so well that it blew up in his fat face. After the debate, the Democratic base looked at the polling and trend lines and saw that Biden couldn’t win. And so, with little time to spare, the great Replace Biden campaign began. And with only weeks to spare before the Democratic convention, Biden stepped aside and Kamala Harris became the presumptive nominee.

Which didn’t bother Trump at all. For starters, she was Biden’s VP, which to his simple mind meant that she was Biden in a pants suit. He could continue bashing Biden, and promise that Harris would be more of the same. And since Harris was, again in his mind, Biden with better hair, she would run the same negative, democracy is dying, bash Trump campaign. Music to his ears.

But then a combination of the voters and Kamala Harris completely bollixed him up. For one thing, it turned out that when the voters kept telling the polls anybody but Biden-Trump, they meant it. And suddenly Democratic voters were energized, undecided voters started flocking to Harris, as did RFK Jr. voters, and Trump was diagnosed with a nasty case of The incredible shrinking polls.

But it was Harris herself that turned Trump over and spanked him like Stormy Daniels. Trump expected Harris to run a Biden style Death of democracy, doom-and-gloom anti Trump campaign. Instead Harris laid down a marker of the last thing Trump ever wanted to hear, You’re not running against Biden, you’re running against me.

And it turned out that me was a perky, smiling, bubbly 59 year old black woman with an infectious laugh. Rather than insulting Trump personally, she gleefully and sarcastically referred to simple facts, like Trump’s criminal history, and said As a prosecutor, believe me, I know Trump’s type. And worst of all, rather than gloomily prophesying the death of democracy of Trump won, she she gleefully boasted of a Brighter, better American made up of our better Angels if they elected her and the Democrats in November. This was the ultimate sunlight to Trump’s Nosferatu, optimism.

Now you know why I gave you all of those numbers and statistics at the top. Trump’s only path to the White House was subtraction, keeping Democratic and independent voters too depressed to show up. Biden was a perfect foil for that.

But now Kamala Harris is out there, holding 15,000 member campfire sing-alongs, and telling people it’s time to turn the page on the dark last decade, and emerge into the sunshine again. And the simple fact is that cheerful, suddenly optimistic people tend to vote for the candidate that makes them feel good.

And because it’s working, and Trump is on the rise, Harris is beating Trump at his own game. Trump is running around like a maniac with his hair on fire to every red district and county in battleground states, trying to scrape up every last stray vote from staying at home.

Harris isn’t duplicating that strategy. She isn’t going to blue districts and counties, she’s confident she’s got them. Instead she’s going into red districts and counties in these same swing states, trying to attract disgusted former Trump supporters by meeting them where they live. And I’m betting that Harris scoops up a whole lot more disgusted ex Trump voters than Traitor tot pries off of the couch.

So there’s your bedtime story. I’ve always known that Trump’s only path to victory was subtraction, and unfortunately Biden was aiding that. But just switching to Harris would have changed nothing if Harris had continued to campaign with Biden’s doom-and-gloom predictions. Fortunately Harris went with optimism, sincerity, and solutions, and now Trump’s path to victory is down to one of those mountain trails Indiana Jones has to crawl along. Don’t touch that dial.

I thank you for the privilege of your time.

Support the site with a subscription today and see no more ads!

Go Ad-free Now!