Swing State Michigan’s GOP Goes Into 2024 In Chaos

The Michigan GOP is in trouble. “Bigly” trouble.

As we look ahead to the new year and the election that will decide whether our system of government will survive (for a while longer) as always things will come down to what happens in so-called “swing states.” Michigan has traditionally been one of those states, but the GOP there is in a mess. Infighting (not to mention some serious crazy) has cost them control of all branches of their government. While Democrats have control they are nowhere near solid majority status and at best “light blue.” At best.

That’s why this article on Alternet grabbed my attention. I’d heard and read about infighting in the GOP in Michigan. And that in the past year that infighting has led to actual physical fighting amongst Michigan GOPers!  Still, it seems things might be worse there than I’d thought.  The headline of the linked article states that according to GOP leaders in Michigan the Party there is on the verge of “Imploding.”  Ok, maybe that’s headline hyperbole, or maybe the GOP honchos talking to reporters are a tad overwrought. However, as one reads the piece there are in fact some signs thing are not at all well with the GOP in that crucial swing state:

According to a Saturday report in the New York Times, eight of Michigan’s 13 Republican congressional district Republican Party chairs have now co-signed a letter asking Michigan GOP chair Kristina Karamo to resign and “put an end to the chaos.”

It seems this letter came about because roughly forty of the Party’s state committee members have called for a meeting to discuss Karamo’s future. (No meeting has been scheduled. The article goes on to quote a state representative will to go on the record:

“The Michigan Republican Party is on the verge of imploding. I have more money in my campaign account than the state party has in its,” State Representative Mark Tisdel said. “Sooner or later, the creditors are going to come calling.

You might be saying to yourself “Well, that’s just one guy’s opinion” and that’s a credible view. However there’s clearly some deep division among Republicans in Michigan over Karomo’s leadership and there’s some interesting financial information to factor in:

Since her tenure began in February, Karamo — a former community college professor and 2020 election denier — has seen the Michigan GOP’s debt load grow to $620,000. This effectively scared off would-be donors to contributing to the state party’s coffers, under the assumption that it would go toward debt service rather than electing Republican in Michigan. Karamo proposed enlisting 500,000 supposed right-leaning businesses to contribute as little as $10 per month to the party, though that idea has so far been unsuccessful.

That I think is what has so many worried. The Michigan GOP is broke and big money donors are shy about throwing money at a state where it will be wasted. Michigan you see isn’t the only state where the State GOP and lots of Republican candidates are strapped financially heading into a Presidential election year. With Trump hoovering up the small money donations and unwilling to spread it around (he does after all have huge, and mounting legal bills these days!) the effects could be disastrous.

It takes money to organize ground operations in any state and all the more so in a populous one like Michigan. The need is amplified since it’s a swing state and has in the last two Presidential elections been so closely divided once the votes were counted. It takes money to set up local offices where paid staff can marshal volunteers and direct their efforts. To set up phone banks. To provide pamphlets, bumper stickers, buttons and yard signs those who go knocking on doors can give out.  To help them out with expenses for say gas and meals, especially once voting starts and people need rides to the polls. (Remember, there’s a LOT of mistrust of mail-in/absentee voting in the GOP thanks to Trump’s talk back in 2020)

TV ads still matter even as more advocacy happens online. Still one thing that hasn’t changed is good old-fashioned GOTV “ground effort” – get people registered and make sure they cast their votes. That’s still labor intensive and it costs money. Money the Michigan GOP doesn’t have and it seems is going to have trouble raising.  This is NOT what a state Party in a swing state needs to be looking at as a Presidential election year begins. If the entire GOP is in turmoil (and it is) the effects are particularly impactful at the state level and all the more so in getting out the vote.

Keep an eye on this. And see how many other states find themselves in a similar predicament. If we respond well we can ensure swing states go our way come November and not just in the Presidential race. Better still, red states could turn out to be “pink” and provide opportunities for pickups. There’s a lot of work to be done and we will have to work like hell but IF we pay attention and put resources into the right places we can be in a good place when voting starts next fall.