Here we freakin’ go again. Another day, and another totally useless national 2024 Presidential election poll. We’re still 364 days from the 2024 presidential election, and here we have a universe of weak kneed, nervous Nellie Democrats having heart spasms over a stupid poll.
This time it’s a new New York Times/Siena University poll that shows Biden trailing Trump in five out of the six battleground swing states. And at this point in time, there is every reason to take this poll for exactly what it’s worth, putting into a paper shredder to use to line the bottom of your bird cage. For several reasons.
First, every time a national media outlet, whether it’s a broadcast network like ANC, CBS, NBC, CNN or FUX News, or a national print outlet like The New York Times, the WSJ, the Washington Post or the LA times does a poll, their wet dream is to get a result that allows them to headline it and keep people tuning in or buying papers. That’s the nature of the beast.
I’ve said it before, but I’ll say it again because it’s relevant. A newspaper headline, or lead tag in a broadcast is nothing more than an initial takeaway of the content of the entire story. And since the entire object is to get and keep eyeballs in place, it’s the most sensational takeaway that snags the headline.
But if you want to know the entire story of a poll, then you have to burrow down into the sub tabs, because that’s where the follow up questions are that provide the proper context that put the headline number is perspective. And when you dive into the sub tabs, there are two stark numbers that provide a perspective that maybe the New York Times didn’t want you to think about.
First of all, while Trump wins five out of the six battleground states, Biden only wins Wisconsin, Trump only wins them with a margin of 3-4%. But if you look at the poll, the margin of error is 4.5%. Which makes the poll basically bullsh*t, since of you take the margin of error into account, those five states are statistical ties, as is the Biden result in Wisconsin.
But here’s the McGuffin, and where the NY Times shows intellectual dishonesty in their teaser headline. In another sub tab, the survey takes into account Trump’s criminal defendant status. And when the same respondents were asked who they’d vote for if Trump had been convicted of a criminal offense before election day, Biden wins all six states.
Just keep this in mind. At this same time in 2011, then President Obama was trailing Mitt Romney, and even in some polls freakin’ Michelle Bachman! Time Magazine had a cover story that asked Is Barack Obama Toast?, and The New York Times put out an editorial proclaiming that Democratic progressives wanted Obama to drop out of the race. And we all saw how that turned out.
And here’s the kicker. Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher pointed out today on MSNBC that Trump’s numbers in those battleground states were exactly what they were on election day of 2020, and Trump lost all of those states. Forget his base, with the critical moderate voters, Trump’s criminal history matters.
Look, I’ve written about the Democrat’s newfound discipline. But the Democrats are by nature a big tent party, with widely divergent opinions. Look at 2020 and 2022. In both cases the Democrats were at internal war over who should represent them. But come July, when it’s a stark Trump vs Biden matchup, the Democrats will line up and show up. Because they know the alternative, and it’s the end of democracy, and nothing is more important.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
CNN is really humping that poll. Worse than FOX. CNN must really miss those Trump numbers. I sure af don’t. God, this is pathetic.
These media always talk it up as a tight race, it’s better for their ratings, i.e. income. They’re not interested in reporting facts so much as making money. This poll is a perfect example.
I heard this on NPR fer Chrissakes! Don’t they realize that if the chips fall in the wrong direction there won’t be an NPR?
You are right-the end of democracy is so close to our doorstep. Anti-democracy is nothing we want here. While in the service I was stationed in Berlin while the wall was still up and had the opportunity to visit the East wall area and that is nothing that we want here. Let’s keep our democracy and vote for Biden or any other legitimate democrat!
Never forget the simple fact: “There are lies, damn lies and statistics”
(and Mark Twain said he was quoting someone else)
You’ve pointed out the part too many “journalists” have ignored. I heard one pundit on MSNBC mention the margin of error factor, and someone also mentioned the “it flips if Trump is convicted” thing but I didn’t hear any real discussion of that until later in the evening. There’s another factor besides the criminal trials I wonder about. Trump has lost his civil case already, and the current trial is about determining damages but I don’t think it’s really hitting home yet. It won’t be all that long until there’s a ruling on how much that fraud is going to cost Trump and the Trump Org. We could very well see the whole thing being dismantled early next year with Trump’s name coming off EVERY building it’s still on including Trump Tower. His properties including those golf courses sold. And Trump and his evil spawn declaring PERSONAL bankruptcy. Well, not wannabe princess Ivanka since she’s married to a younger version of daddy and for now they’re flush but when the full impact of Trump’s being guilty of fraud starts being seen, and Trump’s meltdown (wouldn’t it be fun to see Mark Cuban or Bill Gates BUY Mar A Lago?) even some MAGAs will say “huh?” Oh, they won’t admit to their pals they are rethinking their blind support for Trump but they won’t be able to hide from the news of what’s happening to Trump’s business “empire” taking place.
Even ten percent of MAGAs losing heart and not voting would be a disaster for both Trump and the GOP. And don’t forget that Trump is about to get slammed AGAIN in another civil trial. E. Jean Carrol took a bite out of Trump’s ass already and will take an even bigger one soon! That’s a double-whammy that will be hitting Trump as the primary season kicks off.
It remains to be seen whether it will be in Georgia state court or federal court in DC but Trump WILL be a convicted felon well before the final primary when he is likely to be the presumptive nominee.
At this point my only concern is that President Biden has too much “old school” in him and won’t throw punches hard enough or often enough at Trump. Like Dukakis and Kerry who assumed “voters are smarter than that” and lost Biden might assume voters will come to their senses on their own. He needs to let Dark Brandon out for a romp and regularly and if he does long before summer the polls will look a lot different.
“…At this point my only concern is that President Biden has too much “old school” in him and won’t throw punches hard enough or often enough at Trump. ”
denis, i think we need to recall just where the Dark Brandon meme came from. IIRC,, it was the speech in Philadelphia with that weird red backlighting.
Pretty damn good speech. No reason t not believe he’ll do it over and over again.
He’s busy being a real President and the real campaign, regardless of what the Mango Mussolini thinks, has yet to begin.
The only thing these polls show is how weak of a candidate Biden is.
And you forgot the most important thing these close polls do.
Allow both sides to fundraise off of them!
I always tell folks that “as a prognosticator, I make a pretty good cook”. Pity the same is true for political/election “prognosticators”…or should I say cooks?
Another thing to consider, all those Muslems and Regressives saying they might not vote for Biden because he’s actually allowing Israel to defend itself and they would all be much happier with millions of dead Jews ( you know, the “from the River to the Sea” exterminate the Jews chant) are ALL full of pure unmitigated SH*T! Like Muslems and regressives are gonna vote for Trump or stay home and possibly let him win?
May I remind my Muslem and Regressive friends about Trump and nukes? He is exactly the kind of person who would say to Bibi “Hey Bibi, wanna nuke all them Ay-Rabs? Go ahead, I couldn’t care less”. Trust me, Muslems and Regressives WILL vote for Biden. They simply have no other choice until Hamas members like Tlaib, Omar, etc are running for pres.
Somehow I think when Trump’s out of commission it will be easier to get rid of Bibi. Which is a must.
I have to agree with Murphy on the polls. I really don’t think they show what is actually happening in the US.