Remember This. In The Early Primary States, It Isn’t Necessarily About 1st, 2nd, and 3rd

This town loves a winner!   Map To The Stars Eddie   Escape From LA

Here we are, less than two weeks from the Iowa caucuses, the official start of the 2024 GOP primary campaign season. And believe it or not, things are proceeding along a somewhat normal trajectory.

Florida’s runt Flop Gov, Ron Pissantis just celebrated completing what he called a Grassley, meaning he visited all 99 of Iowa’s districts, a Chuck Grassley campaign trademark. Only to have The Ratty Swami piss all over DeathSantis’s parade by completing his double Grassley, hitting each district twice. And AFP PAC’s are carpet bombing Iowa airwaves with attack ads.

Which seems kind of funny if you think about it, since Traitor Tot is going to roll in Iowa, by a mammoth differential, and nothing can change that. All the rest is jerking time. But the game has to be played, and for a good reason.

Because politics isn’t the real world. It isn’t everyday life, with normal rules, it isn’t education or work, with well defined deliverables. What politics is at its core is fantasy. There’s not a politician in the world that is selling you something concrete. What they’re selling you is the vision of something that they can make concrete if you elect them. And then you do, and they don’t. But you can’t quantify politics using normal life criteria.

Politics is a purely rhetorical exercise, a kind of verbal and mental bloodsport. And like any bloodsport, nobody wants a first round knockout, they want seven rounds of blood spurting and teeth flying. And so, when dealing with the participants, the spectators mentally begin to handicap the race and make it more equitable. And the first and most dominant political handicap is the concept of The Big Mo!, or momentum.

Just look at the 2020 Democratic Presidential primaries. Biden tanked in Iowa, and then followed up by tanking in New Hampshire too. Then he sarcastically exceeded expectations by coming in 3rd in Nevada. Most politicos and analysts looked at Biden as a dead man walking.

Then came congressman Jim Clyburn and South Carolina. Clyburn made a tearful personal endorsement for Biden, the African American community responded, and Biden blew the doors off. After Super Tuesday two weeks later, Biden was the nominee. Sometimes it’s that simple.

And that’s how you have to look at the upcoming GOP primaries, especially in the early primary states. And nobody who doesn’t support Trump wants this thing to be over with by Super Tuesday, especially with Trump’s legal problems looming like a dentist appointment for root canal in the future. And so, what everybody, especially pundits and analysts are going to do is to desperately search for momentum, The Big Mo!.

Here’s how it works. And depending on how the first three weeks go, it could cull the herd considerably. And each straggler will be desperate to show how whatever the result of the primary gives them some momentum!.

Iowa first. As I wrote earlier, Nikki Haley did her due diligence, she showed up often enough, and in enough places, and did enough events to show Iowa voters her sincerity. But she knew that Trump was predestined, so she didn’t overexert. But now, she has the AFP Super PAC behind her, carpet bombing the airwaves in the last two weeks.

Look, forget Chris Christie. Krispy Kreme is camped out in a 3rd floor, cold water walkup in Concord. New Hampshire is his brass ring. But both the Ratty Swami and Pissantis have gone all in on a 2nd place finish in Iowa. They’ll tout a 30 point loss to Traitor Tot as a sign of their momentum. Hey, waddeva gets you through the night.

But with the sudden influx of AFP cash, I’m looking for Nikki Haley to make several unplanned visits to Iowa in the nest two weeks. because suddenly, Haley sees the prospect of an Iowa surprise! If Haley can manage to come out of Iowa with a flash second place finish, or even a strong third place finish, she can claim The Bid Mo! coming out of Iowa.

And on to New Hampshire. Where despite Christie’s best efforts, Christie would come in third in a race for dogcatcher. But in the latest poll, Haley is only 14 points behind El Pendejo Presidente in New Hampshire. If she finishes second there, especially if she can close the gap to 6-8 points, and even more especially if she has a surprise strong finish in Iowa, she can relegate Ratty Swami and Pissantis to the also ran category where they have always belonged.

Which sets up a fascinating possible scenario. Because while Trump is still favored in South Carolina, an unexpectedly strong finish in Iowa and New Hampshire could get Haley a home town bounce in South Carolina. And if that happens, all bets are off.

Because starting with Super Tuesday, His Lowness runs into a stretch of primaries in states that are not so overtly Trump friendly. If Haley can make herself legitimate with strong finishes in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, forget the fact that Trump actually won the primaries, it’s Haley who will be the one that everybody is talking about riding the Big Mo!

I know it sounds insane, but that’s exactly what politics is. The closest legitimate corollary that I can find for politics is Wall Street. Both of them are based purely on a concept, with no actual physical product to sell. And both of them are prime sucks for every vague rumor that comes along. My favorite Wall Street aphorism is Never panic. But if you do, make sure you’re the first one who panics. Because being that first one could save you a bundle and start a catastrophic sell off.

Like Wall Street, politics isn’t an actual thing, it’s more of an esoteric exercise. And that’s why so much goofy sh*t tends to happen. Never forget one thing. The object of the primaries isn’t to win the particular primary, but to win the requisite number of delegates to get the nomination. And with all of the variables at play here, especially Trump’s potential criminal prosecution, don’t take anything for granted.

Thank you for the privilege of your time.