It has become more and more clear to me over the last week that Vladimir Putin can’t win the war he started in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin is nothing more or less than a President Donald Trump without the guardrails.
Putin revels in his persona as a rock hard KGB man. Basically, that means that he kicked the shit out of, and killed men and women with no real chance to defend themselves. Putin’s own superiors stalled his advance, went in the KGB, for his lack of long term thinking, as well as his impulsiveness and instability. But Putin had the Machiavellian skills to engineer his way to the top anyway.
Putin is a bully. He revels in the fact that he has one of the largest armies in the world, and a shit pile of nukes to boot. Vut the simple fact of the matter is, that in every foreign fight since World War II, the Russian army has proven itself to be nothing but a pathetic band of misfits and fuck ups.
Putin does not see Ukraine as a sovereign nation, not does he see the Ukrainians as sovereign people. He sees them as sovereign citizens of Russia, and recently has called for the extermination of all Ukrainians that don’t welcome Russian rule. This alone is enough to assure genocide charges before the ICC in the Hague.
But in his blind hatred and arrogance, Putin made a fatal miscalculation. He underestimated the Ukrainian people. Had he taken the simple step of sending a couple of Russian generals into Ukraine in soft clothes to reconnoiter, and if they had had the courage to come back and do so, they could have told him that the Ukrainians were a proud people, firmly devoted to their independence. Instead, Putin told his invading troops that they would be welcomed with roses and food as saviors.
Instead we have 6 long weeks of bitter Russian aggression, with bombed out cities, bodies in the streets, and a humanitarian crisis at the Ukraine borders with other NATO countries. But instead of having the desired terror effect of forcing civilians into submission, something else has happened. The Ukrainians are royally and truly pissed. And they have no thought of submission.
Ukrainian men and women are signing up in droves to be emergency medica, supply mules, and even frontline fighters. And combat veterans from places like the US, Canada, the UK, Australia and Germany have crossed over into Ukraine to give them basic training before they go to the front. The Russian commander gave the citizens of Mariupol an order to surrender in order to stop the shelling, and was told he could have the city when there wasn’t a Ukrainian citizen left to defend it.
The Russians are in what I call a rout retreat, and there is reporting on MSNBC tonight that the Pentagon and NATO are starting to send the Ukrainians offensive weapons with which to continue the pursuit and destruction. The farther they can push the Russians back without allowing them to reconstitute and reform their lines, the better.
But this may well present a serious political difficulty for Ukrainian President Zelensky. His goal as President is to bring an end to the hostilities. But the simple fact is that the horrors of war have tended to leave the Ukrainian people who have suffered so much little room for negotiation with the Russians.
But here’s an example. One of the things that Vlad the Imp os going to demand in peace talks is that the Ukraine waive its right to join NATO, and opt for strict neutrality with international guarantees. But the Ukrainian constitution mandates a possible entry into NATO, to change that would require a national referendum. And what are the chances that the majority of Ukrainian citizens, who lave lived under the horror of Russian aggression, vote to deny themselves the right of entry to NATO? Good luck Volodimir.
Another one. Another one of Russia’s demands for peace will almost certainly be the return of the Donbas region to Russia, with a land bridge to Russia. But the Russians are in an almost uncontrolled rout, leaving equipment and arms behind in their thirst to get away. And with US and NATO support, the Ukrainian army will be free to pursue and hammer the retreating Russians. Why in the world would the Ukrainians give Putin dick?!
President Zelensky is duty bound to try to end the war in Ukraine to spare his people further suffering. But he may be hoisted on his own petard. Because he motivated his people to resist on the basis if Russian war atrocities, and now that the Russians are clearly on the run, it may be difficult for him to convince his own citizens that anything less than a complete Russian capitulation is acceptable. Wheels within wheels. Don’t touch that dial.
All due respect, Murf, but your frame of reference is a wee bit off. All that presupposes is that ending the suffering is more important than making this never, EVER happens for the Ukrainians. Ask everyone who saw the dead of Bucha if THAT seems likely now. For Vladimir Vladimirovitch, the assumption is that he won’t keep doubling down until he wins (unlikely at the start of this and less likely by the day) or his armed forces are COMPLETELY broken (heard a report from my mom that they’re recruiting SENIOR CITIZENS…telling if true). He’s in a WAY worse fix that Zelinskyy. He delivers any less than a total victory, he’s finished.
As such, negotiations will remain an empty dance but a neccessary charade while the atrocities will continue. Look for at least one big push by the Russians before May 9 (their commemoration day of WWII via the May Day Parade) but don’t bother looking for peace. Nor should we pretend that we in the US as too many of us keep pretending.
land bridge to Crimea from Russia, there fixed it for you.
I know this may seem of little consequence, but Russians from all over spend their summers on the beaches of the Black Sea, Crimea and the Sea of Azov. Shelling and dead bodies floating in the water are a big turn off for summer vacations. This war was supposed to last a weekend. Hard to hide what is happening in Ukraine to Russians who cannot take their usual trip to the beach to cool off from the typical hot Russian summer.
Vlad’s big mistake was spreading himself too thin with undertrained and undermotivated soldiers, which was cannon fodder for the Ukrainians’ weaponry and subversion. Now he’s slaughtered citizens, which undoubtedly increased the motivation of the Ukrainians. Vlad’s Conscripting yet more undertrained and undermotivated Russian’s, while the ukrainians are now hell-bent-for-leather to stick it to the Russians. Vlad won’t give up unless the folks at home start giving him grief.
“Another one of Russia’s demands for peace will almost certainly be the return of the Donbas region to Russia, with a land bridge to Russia. But the Russians are in an almost uncontrolled rout, leaving equipment and arms behind in their thirst to get away.”
The Russians in the north of Ukraine are in a rout, but the Russians in the Donbas region and along the Black Sea are not. Not yet, anyway.
It’s going to be a tough slog to blow them out of there, but with the offensive weapons the Ukrainians are getting, starting with the tanks from Czechia, and with the deteriorating financial condition of Russia, I have every confidence they can do it.