Putin And His Cronies Take A Bath. A Bloodbath That Is

Joy Ann Reid just reported that the Russian stock market lost almost 50% of its total value, one of the largest losses in a single day in history. Then she went on to report that Putin and his oligarchs combined account for approximately 25% of Russia’s total wealth.

Don’t waste any crocodile tears on Vlad the Imp and his cronies, they can put their big boy pants on. But the speed with which the US and EU sanctions hit the Russian economy, and with such devastating effect is bad news for Putin and his regime. But throw in sanctions barring Russian banks from doing business on international markets and stock exchanges, and Putin, his son in law, and his oligarchs having their international assets frozen, and they ain’t gonna be making much money.

But Russia has a more serious problem and by that I mean Putin. While Russia is the largest landmass country on earth, their population is deceptively small. Most of the landmass of Russia is poorly explored, and uninhabited. And their economy suffers for that. As Rachel Maddow just reported, Russia has a smaller GDP per person that the freakin’ Maldives, and Palau too. I know for a fact that Russia’s economy is smaller than that of California.

The problem is that Russia is a two trick pony. Oil and natural gas. The popular joke is that Russia is a gas station with an army and nukes. The standing rule is that Russia’s economy is only profitable when oil is over $100 a barrel. And OPEC has been spanking Russia for almost a year to keep it under that. And the new US/EU/NATO sanctions are turning off the funski valve for Putin to sell his oil and natural gas pretty much anywhere in Europe.

But ya know what? Fuck Putin and his cronies, they won’t be applying for food stamps anytime soon. But once you ignore Putin, Russia is still a country. And the citizens of that country still depend on the Russian economy. There are stores and businesses in Russia, and many of them are invested in the Russian stock market. How would you like to come home from work today, kick off your shoes, turn on CNBC, and find that 50% of your 401k or IRA account had just flushed down the shitter? And it’s not just Russian citizens investing in the stock market. Pretty much all of the Russian companies with their stock in the market just saw the value of their company cut in half in one day. How do they continue to operate, especially since foreign funding is largely cut off by sanctions?

Rachel just reported that in Russia today, more than 150,000 plus people in 54 cities took to the streets, despite official warnings, to protest the invasion of Ukraine. There were more than 900 arrests in Moscow alone. Putin has ordered that anyone who protests the invasion is a riot, and a subversive. And still they persisted.

To be honest, I have been wondering if this would happen, but the speed amazes even me. Putin has been on shaky ground with his populace for a while now. After each of the last two elections, there have been mass protests nationwide, with hundreds of thousands of people taking to the streets to protest the corruption. Dissident politician Alexei Novalny was such a thorn in Putin’s side, with mass protests, that Putin went so far as to poison him, and then to jail him when he survived.

And it isn’t just Novalny or politics. On the ground unofficial, anonymous reports show that the majority of Russian citizens are happy with the Ukraine just the way it is. They have unfettered access,do business, see friends and family, and as Ukrainian President Zelinsky put it, Ukraine is the largest Russian speaking democracy in the world. They see no reason for the status quo to change. And now that Russia has gone in, they aren’t happy.

President Zelinsky, in an address to the nation today said that 69 fatalities, and more than 150 have been injured so far. That’s just Ukrainian casualties, Putin has no intention in releasing any casualty reports on his side. But you must remember, so far, this has been largely a bomb, rocket and artillery assault, Russian troops have not faced much danger. After the infrastructure is destroyed, that’s when the major ground assault will take place. And when that happens, the Russian casualties will rise quickly, because the Ukrainians are going to fight like sons of bitches. Rachel showed a photo of a two block long line of men, and presumably women, queueing up to sign up to the army to fight the Russians. They are pissed off!

Look, nothing I wrote earlier has changed. Putin has invaded, Ukraine will fight, and hard. Putin will likely impose a puppet government, and the Ukrainian civilian population will resist. Putin is about to create his own personal Vietnam. But what has changed is the paradigm in Russia. I had not expected, and I believe neither did Putin, the immediate disastrous effect on the Russian economy from the sanctions. Nor did I expect the immediate, massive negative public response in Russia to Putin’s move. Putin isn’t going to stop, but he may be about to have to fight another war on his rear flank, with his people. Anybody remember the Russian Revolution? Putin should, it was required reading at university. Don’t touch that dial.