I have been thinking about, and working on this for a while now. And finally, I think I have my ducks enough in a row to make at least an intelligible article out of is. I hope you like it.
How many times have I spoken about the importance of two opposite, vibrant political parties in our democracy? Two sides with opposing views, but both with plausible ideas and programs for governing. More times than either of us want to count. And the GOP is holding the shit end of the stick.
We can pretty accurately time the passing of what used to be the Republican party. Election day of 2008. Why? Because before that, the GOP was still at least espousing conservative governing principles. George W Bush, in his second term, spent his political capital on ramming through the Medicare Prescription Drug Plan, allowing seniors to purchase drug insurance from outside insurance companies to help to fill the infamous Medicare Donut Hole in prescription drug coverage. A perfect example of Bush’s compassionate conservatism. And as one of those who sat at a phone and explained the benefits of those programs, I can tell you how many seniors were saved economic hardship by that program.
But since inauguration day of 2009, the GOP has stopped even pretending to stand for anything, instead just using their rhetoric to portray every Democratic idea or plan as far-left commie bullshit, and opposing it universally. The problem with this is that it leaves them nothing to actually run on when election time comes around, and voters still kind of like to hear what their politicians want to do, as opposed to not do.
The Republicans have actually been a minority party for quite a while now. If my research is correct, 1998 was the last time that the GOP actually won a plurality national vote in this country. Bush won the popular Presidential vote in 2004, but nationally, the vote went against the party.
Basically, what it all means is that the Republican party can’t win an election in a battle of ideas, the tide has turned against them. And so, in order to at least try to maintain any kind of power, the GOP has had to resort to two alternate tactics, gerrymandering and voter suppression.
But both of them are not quite what they used to be. Let’s start with gerrymandering. In any decent gerrymander, the best of the 10 years are the first 4 years. After that, population migration starts to eat into the effect. This is especially true in the New South, where states wooing high tech and manufacturing companies with sweetheart tax dodges brings in a sudden influx of younger, better educated, wealthier, more liberal voters, who move into traditional GOP suburbs to be close to work. This is especially prominent in Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia.
One of the benefits of gerrymandering was always intended to be projecting an aura of invincibility. Once a GOP candidate got elected, he counted heavily on the old They could elect a ham sandwich with the letter R after it in that district to deter any Democrat from even bothering to run. And for a couple of decades, that worked like a charm. GOP incumbents raised campaign caboodle, made a speech or two, and sat back on election night, running unopposed.
But the Era Of Trump changed all of that. Outrage at having a racist, sexist, pig boy in the White House caused everyday Americans from across the spectrum to put their personal lives on hold, and run for office. And it worked beyond the Democrats wildest dreams.
In 2017, and in 2019 as well, in both Virginia and Illinois, the Democrats filled every open slot on the ballot. And guess what? After years, and in some cases decades of having no choice for their vote, they had Democrats on the ballot that actually courted them! In 2017l the Democrats came within a coin toss of tying the delegate House, and finished the job in 2019, flipping both the House and the Senate. And in Illinois, they put Democratic asses in legislative seats that had never known blue since the day they were created. And let’s not forget Conor Lamb’s upset miracle in Pennsylvania, a seat that was alleged to be Democratic proof.
And one more thing about gerrymandering. The flipping of Governorships from red to blue in states controlled by Republicans in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 ensured that while state GOP dominated legislatures may draw horrific gerrymandered maps, the Democratic Governors can veto them, and in many states the GOP lacks the super majority in the legislature to override the veto. In other words, we kept stoppers.
And now on to voter suppression. The secret to voter suppression for the GOP has always depended on two simple principles, a rigidly controlled state legislature able to pass restrictive voting laws, and a minority base fractured and unable to resist those changes. But while the GOP may still control the state legislatures, and hold the ability to pass restrictive voting bills, the Democrats inability to fight them has disappeared.
Stacey Abrams exploded the GOP restrictive voting plan in the aftermath of her 2018 robbery of the Governorship. Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp expunged 65,000 largely minority voters at the last minute in 2018, and won by less than 55,000 votes. Instead of sulking, she activated her mammoth grassroots organization, and spent the next two years registering a half a million new voters, who could not be excluded or expunged, since they had not even had a chance to vote in an election yet?
And even more importantly, Democratic grassroots have organized and funded to the point that they are now capable of hiring lawyers to go to court, and fight the constitutional legality of these restrictive laws. This is not in the GOP playbook. And grassroots organizations are standing tall, telling the GOP, Fine! You want restrictive voter ID laws? We’ll car pool people the the DMV to get their damn ID’s, and we’ll help them get their documents to get their stupid ID’s.
As I wrote previously, minority rule only works when the minority is dis-spirited and disorganized. But when the opposition organized and mobilizes, you’re fucked. Democratic Governors in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania will step in to make sure that the new congressional maps are not out of control. And courts in states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina have already shown that they won’t hesitate to step in if things get out of control. The GOP will of course fight like hell, but the tide has finally turned against them.
Follow me on Twitter at @RealMurfster35
Back when I was on active duty, in a fighter squadron at Miramar, our commanding officer told us something. He said organizations cannot just stand still and maintain status quo. They are either improving and performing better or they are declining. Basically, there is no standing still. The GOP has been attempting to stand still, since 2009 as you say. In reality, they have lost ground and momentum.