Those of you who know me know that I’m becoming cautiously more and more optimistic about November. For a bunch of reasons.
On the economic front, June saw 372,000 new jobs created, blowing through expectations. Companies are still hiring, and new small businesses are still starting up. Unemployment remained at a record low 3.6% for the 2nd straight month. Gas prices have dropped for 24 consecutive days, the longest streak in history.
Politically, the landscape is sunnying up nicely. A new generic control of congress poll shows the Democrats and GOP in a dead heat at 50-50. Considering the headwinds Biden and the Democrats are facing, the GOP should easily be up by 7-9 points. The fact that that the Democrats are this close, this close in, puts the road wide open if the breaks start going their way for a while.
Thanks to that imbecile Clarence Thomas, and the runaway train GOP SCOTUS, the Democrats have hit the trifecta of high energy campaign issues. Reproductive rights, gay rights, and voting rights. And that activism isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
As always, the wild card is Trump. And even there, there’s trouble in GOP paradise. Herschel walker trails Raphael Warnock by 10 points. Fetterman leads OZ for PA Senate, and Shapiro leads Mastriano in PA for Governor, with traditional GOP politicians coming out to support Shapiro. And larval Trombies endorsed by Trump against GOP incumbents are finding it rough sledding.
Even Traitor Tot’s endorsement may be losing its shine in high risk races. Trump endorsed far right Trombie wingnut Kari Lake for AZ Governor. She is basically unelectable, possibly dragging the rest of the ticket down with her. Outgoing AZ Governor Doug Ducey promptly endorsed a sane rival. But in a true Et tu Brute, Et tu? moment, FUX News headliners Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham gleefully took turns hammering Lake.
Recently I wrote that Trump may be trying a Hail Mary pass to avoid criminal prosecution by coming out early to announce his 2024 bid, so that he could then claim that any attempted criminal prosecution was politically motivated. Earlier this week, Rudy Giuliani came out on FUX News and claimed that Trump could announce as soon as next week.
NO! NO! NO! Not yet, Emperor Numbus Nuttus! Outside of Trump’s rabid base, he is losing steam in the moderate GOP, that’s why his acolytes are having so much trouble against GOP incumbents in the primaries. Coming out this early could lead to more Trombie losses in the primaries, making the Democrats job harder in November.
Much better to wait until the January 6th committee finishes pulverizing him like road gravel. And personally, I don’t think that Trump wants to run. He’s 76 years old. In 2016, Trump announced his reelection 2020 bid 1 day after being inaugurated. It’s been 20 months since Trump left office. And as J6 committee testimony has shown, Trump knows he lost fair-and-square in 2020. That nagging thought kills his ego.
Whenever Trump announces, it’s going to be a boon to the Democrats, in 2 ways. First, just the mention of the name Trump is a motivating factor for the Democratic base. And second, it’s just as motivational in the opposite direction for the GOP. Remember 2018, Trump did everything possible to make himself the dominant factor in the election. And it worked. White suburban women stayed home, and the Democrats picked up 40 seats in the House. Trump is now running either dead even, or slightly behind FL Governor Ron Pissantis for the lead in GOP 2024 presidential polls. Bring it on, Big Boy!
Thanks. This article was a pleasure to read.
Here is one thing you’re not thinking about or perhaps just not mentioning: former guy does not like being ridiculed. At all. He has to be paying at least scant attention to what the actual climate is with regard to him and even tho’ he keeps trying to hammer home the big lie and “say” he is thinking about running again, if it looks like he’d be more of a joke than a real candidate, I doubt he’d run again. Maybe I’m giving him too much credit for seeing reality as reality but I do think he would cut off one of his body parts if it meant people wouldn’t laugh at him.
An evil twit stumbles into a ditch. Again. I’m shocked.
He’ll hold off for as long as possible before announcing his candidacy for one simple reason. He’s fund-raising as if it was going out of fashion and, so long as he’s not a declared candidate the FEC doesn’t get involved. Once he declares, however, they’re going to be over his funding with a fine tooth comb.