Joe Biden maintains a large lead in the latest polls. The FiveThirtyEight average has Biden up by 9.8 points; RealClearPolitics has his lead at 9.7 points; NYT average, Biden up by 10.
Just plugged in those stats into the @CookPolitical swingometer. Think this is a possible scenario, or is it too far fetched? pic.twitter.com/5I4CtARkV0
— E.B. (@Evan_RB) October 9, 2020
As was the case in the summer, voters’ preferences – regardless of whom they favor – remain very much centered on Trump. Just 36% of Biden voters view their vote more as an expression of support for the former vice president; 63% view it as vote against Trump. By contrast, 71% of Trump supporters say their vote is a vote for Trump. These views have changed only modestly since June.
The supporters of both candidates remain highly engaged in the election. Identical shares of registered voters who favor Trump and Biden (71% each) say they have given a lot of thought to the candidates running for president. And nearly eight-in-ten voters (78%) – again, comparable majorities of both candidates’ supporters – say it “really matters” who wins.
While voters on both sides share a sense of the importance of the election, they also share concern about the country’s future if the opposing candidate wins. Fully 89% of Trump supporters say that if Biden wins, they not only would be very concerned over the country’s direction, they believe it would lead to “lasting harm” for the country. A nearly identical majority of Biden supporters (90%) say Trump’s election would result in lasting harm to the United States.
This next part below is mind boggling. The two candidates literally stand for different core values. This we have never seen. Differences of opinion on how the country should be run, emotionally charged issues like abortion, same-sex marriage, yes, we’ve seen all that. But two different sets of values, this level of culture war? No. This is unique to 2020.
And voters who support both Trump and Biden say their differences extend beyond policies to disagreements over core values. Overwhelming shares of voters who support each candidate say that, when asked to think about those who favor their opposing candidate, they not only have different views on politics and policies, they also have “fundamental disagreements on core American values and goals”.
One key thing to bear in mind: our allies and the rest of the world view America in the light of who we were in the world before the advent of Trump. That is why Joe Biden must win, so that America stops being the punchline to a joke.
And another thing to bear in mind as well: in 2016 the polls were 3-4 points apart between the two candidates. There was high emotional interpretation of those polls. People couldn’t believe that Trump could possibly win, and so they denied the possibility and lived to regret it. In my case, I admit to totally buying into Markos Moulitsas’ banner across the top of the Daily Kos page, which had Hillary with a 96% chance of winning — for months. Remember that? I guess I was too naive or too unwilling to believe that that set of stats could be wrong and so I didn’t go looking for others. In this election cycle, I’ve looked at every poll I can find, plus read commentary in the foreign press to see if anything is being missed.
There is still high emotional interpretation of the 2020 polls because of terror that we could be wrong again. But ten points difference and four are two very different stats. Also, there were times in 2016 when Trump led Hillary. Trump has never been ahead of Biden. Biden took an early sizable lead in June and has maintained it. But if you still need to put rubber sheets on the bed, we understand. 2016 was the kind of trauma I don’t want to live through again, either.
And I hate to say this, but would be remiss if I didn’t: We don’t know what Vladimir Putin is up to this cycle. But he didn’t have the easy run at Facebook and Twitter this time that he had in 2016 with the help of Cambridge Analytica. America has wised up somewhat. Let’s pray to God it’s enough.
This isn’t 2016 again. It’s 1980 again.
1980 is a good reference point. I like to think about 1984 and that blow out. Remember how the map looked that night? I fantasize Trump being blown out like that, but it’s probably too good to hope for. And he wouldn’t even carry his “home” state, which is New York. And he may not carry his new home state of Florida this time, either. So in my fantasy he walks with nothing. But probably, the 1984 scenario is more realistic. But I have to say, if Trump would take the shellacking Mondale did in 1984 I would be screaming and laughing for days.
Too good to hope for with Trump doing his best to piss off or knock off the only people who will still vote for him? In the words of Christopher Lee as Count Dracula, “I think not.”
It’s the challenger taking out the incumbent, who should have more advantages. (Carter was a better president, IMO, than Reagan, but I got outvoted.)
Last time the undecided were around 8%. It worried me. I still thought HRC would win. I bought champagne. But the 8% worried me. How could anyone be undecided? This time around I look to see if Biden is over 50%. Most of the time he is. Oh, when I woke up this morning the 538 average was 10.2. More than yesterday when I went to bed. It has been going like that all week. Go team go.
I don’t think anybody has been undecided in this race for quite some time. The only real issue is, who’s going to vote?
We are, Ursula. And many of us, myself included, already have. Or do you really think the lone dropbox in that Texas county of 4.7 million folks had a line of vehicles full of fired-up Trumpies? The only enthusiasm our opposite numbers are showing is in inept kidnapping schemes, catcalling at polling places and other highly violent and illegal acts. This may be the first time in my life where most folks were more scared of white people.
The nearest drop box to me is at the branch library, literally up the street. (About half a mile, an easy walk. The library’s still closed, though.)
reluctant voters will be the key. we all know we will vote, but who can get that home health care worker or stressed mom home with kids online learning to vote that will win the elections.
I’m pretty sure a pandemic without end, a collapsing economy and a society on the brink is going to solve that problem, provided that there’s enough outreach. What I’ve seen of the Biden-Harris campaign up close? They’re zooming in on those reluctant voters like a sniper picking out targets.
I’ve been fueled by anger and hatred over what happened in 2016. More than enough motivation for me, and whenever I’ve been down tapping into it has gotten me back into biker bar fight mode. For others, if terror over the polling being “wrong” in 2016, or Russian meddling or voter suppression (or some combination of those things) motivates you then let that fear flow. Vote no matter what. Every chance you get to help someone else vote, or convince someone else to vote grab it and don’t let go until you’re sure you’ve succeeded. And while you’re at it try and convince any such person you motivate to do the same with someone else. I WANT that kind of map. And something showing well north of 300 EVs with some former Trump states comfortably in our column on election night! This is no time to be a good sport and be like a sports team that takes pity on an opponent who is whipped. No, this is run up the score time. This is is the time to make like Ali in his second fight with Liston, having knocked him down and silly standing over him shouting at him to get back up so he (Ali) could whale on him some more and knock his ass down again! That’s how we have to act until all the votes are counted and the results certified. 1964 was a long time ago. Since then the huge 400 plus EV blowouts have been by the GOP. It’s OUR turn to drop the hammer and beat THEM down for a change!
Given the Legion of Super Lawyers Uncle Joe has got on standby? Being a good sport is off the table.
Sportsmanship was something that was ingrained in me and guys I played with from the very beginning. I think it’s one of the reasons that despite being shut out of even engaging in putting and chipping contests at the local country club when I would fish there with a friend (who’s dad played several days a week) when the fish weren’t biting (I was a lower middle class kid) watching the game on TV drew me to it. I’ve lost most of my love for the game over it’s refusal to distance itself from Trump btw. Anyway, being gracious after a game regardless of the outcome was tough sometimes but we were taught to always acknowledge the opponent’s effort even when frankly they didn’t deserve consideration due to their own actions during a game. THIS matter however is different. I want a big time beat down. One that will leave them bruised and battered and fearful moving forward. I mentioned that Ali vs. Liston second fight because given what went down in the first one Ali (still known as Cassius Clay at the time) wanted to make Liston suffer for the full fifteen rounds. To knock him on his ass over and over again. His reaction when Liston was lying there on his back was pure “get back up motherfucker so I can knock you right back down there again!” and that’s how I feel. If the GOP tries to get back up on wobly legs don’t waste a second knocking them right back down on their ass and making sure that if they keep trying to stand back up and continue you won’t waste a second knocking them right back on their ass again. Force them to slink away in shame and make sure when they’ve regrouped and try to re-enter the ring that they had by god act right or they can count on getting their asses knocked down again!
Historically presidential election year voter turnouts are about 60%? I wonder what the turnout will be this year?
80% is my bet.
Well I guess Trump can legitimately brag about being the greatest voter turnout machine if that happens.
You may interested to know that NYT has a piece running about where we are if the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016. It’s STILL got him up by seven to eight points by that handicap. That said, there’s no shortage of ways to help run up the scoreboard. So if you’re feeling anxious, VOLUNTEER, DONATE, VOTE! We can win this and if we all show up, we will.
Absolutely!!
Everybody hold tight…we’re good, but there is a very real possibility that Trump will get slightly better polls numbers early next week, which might set the media a chattering.
I say this because Biden hit 52% of the popular vote in aggregate national polls. That is a definitive ceiling he’s smacked through…he’s never been that high this cycle. ??? To put this in perspective, the last time a candidate hit 52% was Obama 2008, and he didn’t get there until late October. Before that…Clinton ‘96. Wow.
However, the tracking polls are looking like they’ve looked four times since July, where this new peak could be followed by the loss of a point or so next week…they’ve been bouncing in this narrow range all summer.
I point this out because if the polls go back to Biden 51% it’s going to set off this asinine series of “this race is tightening!” stories from the talking heads. Which will be super annoying, but I consider the silver lining that if Democrats are scared enough, we will truly landslide them.
But who knows…elections can be like stocks or currency, and sometimes the bottom falls out. Maybe the polls get worse for Trump next week. Either way, and whatever happens, we are witnessing the worst close of a campaign in our lifetimes. Two hundred years from now people will be discussing this election.
Yeah, right, sure…just like the race was supposed to have tightened by now. At this point, I’d say that the cake has been baked and the only way Trump or the GOP will change things is to their detriment.
Don’t get me wrong…I agree with your assessment. A true sign of the race “tightening” would be Biden falling under 49…this is the floor he keeps bouncing off of.
What I’m saying is more that the media is bored, and loves to say the race is tightening when it’s just normal statistical noise.
I’m optimistic the opposite is true…that the gap will widen. 538 still projects Trump getting 45% of the vote on average. I think there’s room to bring that down another couple of points and get into true landslide territory.
Something else I’m considering…polls usually swing away from us because the other side is off persuading people. Both sides working at it keeps the movement in equilibrium. Trump is being crazy and actually doing as much to push voters to Biden as we are. The point being that I don’t know how the conventional floors and ceilings are affected by one candidate self sabotaging.
IMO the economy will become noticeable worse for millions before Nov 3. No stimulus and virus contagion spike.