A week from tomorrow, all hell breaks loose in Washington, only without slobbering Trumptards trying to demolish the Capitol. With the possible exception of the House MAGA caucus. Because next Tuesday morning, the House will gavel into session, the members will be sworn in, and the 1st order of business will be selecting a new Speaker of the House.
Kevin McCarthy is boned. Totally. His majority in the House is too small to allow him to get to 218 votes with a single caucus support. He has to meld a coalition. He has 3 completely disparate blocs he has to deal with. And the 2 largest ones are at war with each other.
But here’s the funny part. McCarthy isn’t the only one who’s boned. You know who else is? Laborious MTG and the MAGAt’s are pooch screwed too. They want the moon from McCarthy, but he can’t give it to them. Because the Freedom Caucus has their own agenda, But hey! The Freedom Caucus is boned too, because with the infighting with the MAGAt’s, they still can’t cobble together a 218 vote majority. It’s a Mexican standoff. Nobody is going to be willing to compromise, and even if they do, they still don’t have a combined 218 votes.
But believe it or not, there is a single GOP block that can nominate and confirm a new Speaker. And it just happens to be the smallest block of the US House. It’s the 20-25 moderate conservative members elected mostly from highly competitive suburban swing districts. And they can do it without a single GOP vote from the other 2 GOP caucuses, just so long as they have unified Democratic support. You believe that? The smallest block in the House can literally play kingmaker, and confirm a new Speaker, just as long as they’re willing to compromise with the Democrats.
Which brings us to the 4 most important words you need to keep in mind going into next Tuesday and beyond. The. Problem. Solvers. Caucus. This is a bipartisan, mostly moderate group of Democratic and Republican House members who have decided to put their party and ideological prejudices to meet together, and instead try to come up with bipartisan solutions for the most pressing problems the country faces. And along the way, they’ve scored some very nice, impactful successes with bipartisan legislation written within the caucus.
But here’s why this matters so much. This isn’t some new fad, these members have been meeting together and working together for a common goal for years. And they all know each other. And when they get back to their party caucuses, they talk to other sympathetic caucus members about who’s the real deal. Who has conservative principles, but is flexible enough to work across the siale in good faith to move the peoples business forward. Trust has been created.
And that is the name you need to watch out for. If, as I expect, the 1st round, with McCarthy nominated, fails, and it moves into a futile 2nd and 3rd round, start watching for whispers or rumors of GOP moderate House member overtures to the Democrats. And if that happens, you can almost rest assured that the potential name that the moderate caucus throws out is a member of the problem solvers caucus. Because there are plenty of Democratic caucus members who can vouch for that members reputation as a straight shooter, who will keep his word.
If a moderate GOP caucus member puts a name forward in the 3rd or 4th ballot, and it’s seconded by either another moderate member, or a problem solvers caucus member, it goes to the floor for a vote. And if enough Democrats are on board, and I think they will be, then not only would we have a sane GOP Speaker holding the gavel, but it could deal a crippling blow to both the Freedom Caucus as well as the MAGAt’s.
Because a sane GOP Speaker could keep Gym bag Jordan from getting the Chair of the House Judiciary committee. A sane GOP Speaker could keep Goosesepper Gosar and Laborious MTG from getting back their committee posts, or bury them so deep in inconsequential House subcommittees that their names are never mentioned again. A sane GOP Speaker knows that he or she now has 2 years to show that the GOP is capable of governing too, and making their reelection pr let the GOP moiospects in 2024 much brighter. And just maybe let the GOP moderates start to take their own party back.
Look, we’re in uncharted territory here. I’ve never seen anything like this insane GOP House gridlock in more than 50 years. The old adage was Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line. But today’s GOP House couldn’t even fall in bed! But there’s also one more ancient political adage, Politics makes strange bedfellows. And that doesn’t always mean hookers and staffers. Don’t laugh me off just yet.
McCarthy will buy the votes he needs.
He can’t BUY what he needs if he doesn’t have the currency of the realm Dino…And even if he guys the Freedom Caucus,what does he offer to the moderates who are interested in RESULTS, rather than the insanity of gridlock and show hearings? That’s his problem, he has 54 votes macimum to spare…
The deal-breaker for Gaetz, Boebert and the rest of the insane cult caucus is that McCarthy won’t impeach Biden.
Among other deranged priorities, I am certain, Michelle. There may also be the necessity to be protected from certain legal consequences as in the case of Gaetz.
I just read it again—-and still can’t get the grin off my face! And I’ve checked my calendar and Jan. 3rd is open….and popcorn is in the house….
I so hope this is the way it goes down. Can you imagine the outrage?!? Ole large marge and brown noser kevin are in for the shock of their lives if this happens! Fingers crossed
Joe. You’re such an optimist. Sounds rational. Sounds plausible. Sounds doable. Are you sure you’re talking about the gop? What was the number that voted for the insurrection? Well over a hundred wasn’t it? Maybe some will come to their senses & put the safety on their weapons. Just kidding. Since it’s the party of cowards, I’m not sure 25 members won’t be looking over their shoulder at the larger crazy crowd and Trump howling down in Florida and buckle under, afraid their fate will be like Mr. Pelosi’s. Or their families’ fate. Everyone dresses up and talks policy. Fear never gets a mention. A party of traitors hates traitors. Go figure. Remember the Klan started in Tennessee to deal with white folks who wouldn’t fall in line. Either way it’s more the circus is in town rather than the caucus. I seriously doubt anyone can come up with the name at this point. Lottery anyone?
Murf is talking math, not optimism. Specifically 218 votes needed for Speaker or literally NOTHING will get done, including committee assignments and regular legislation. MAGA + Freedom Caucus only equals roughly 200, which is far too short of the goal even if they weren’t at war with each other. And neither of them have enough pull or negotiating skill to end this on their own. That leaves the 20-25 moderates Murf mentioned with only one real option to turn the machinery back on: the very unified 213 Dems waiting in the wings. Don’t even need all of those moderates onboard with the Dems, really…5 of their votes will do the trick.
And unlike you, I’m willing to bet there’s at least that many who understand that the only way they help make Trump go away is if they make this play. The indictments on Mango Mussolini and violence from his deluded followers will keep happening in the short-term whether they do this or not. Not only is that just more math (gh3ey made the party lose 3 straight election cycles) but practical politics, the kind these W-style Republicans have to play if they want to take power they’ve not had in over a decade since they stupidly thought the Tea Party was a good idea. And if they somehow don’t get it together, Dems win anyway.
I have a name for you: Evan McMullin.
Having taken calculus and trigonometry at Carolina, I trust math. What I don’t trust is the GOP. Sure, I understand IF the democrats hang together, which is yet to be seen in itself on any particular bill, getting five gop members to consistently hang with the democrats will remain an open question given the batshit gop. Hope so, but I’ll believe it when it adds up. The state motto in North cackalacky is To Be Rather Than To Seem. I also like Missouri’s The Show Me…state. Math is certain. Nothing is certain in politics…so optimism is the correct word.
The only possible outcomes here are DEAD certain. All of them are variations on “whoever cobbles together a big enough coalition to elect a Speaker wins”, each benefiting the Dems in some way with little gain for the Republicans in turn. There’s also plenty to be certain on with the loudest of the GOP personalities involved in this melodrama. Ditto the highly disciplined leadership of the House Dems under Jeffries, narrowness of the margin of error and total weakness and ineptitude of Kevin McCarthy. The only real X factors are the moderates noted above, none of whom have any true leadership to hold them in place and for whom fear may well work the opposite way you’re calculating. The “every person for themselves and God against all” setup they’re operating under means they only need think of how best to hang onto office in their purple districts over “party unity” bromides.
On a side note, is anyone else reminded of “psychohistory” from Dr. Issac Asimov’s Foundation series in this discussion?
I’d like to see someone put Evan McMullin forward. He’s no longer in the Republican Party but he’s not a Democrat either. As an Indie, he has the advantage of appealing to both Democrats and sane moderate conservatives.
I’ve been seeing this as a strong possiblity. (Call me a sadist, but I’ve even thought that it might be nice of Liz Cheney were nominated – or Adam Kinzinger.) I’m sure that’s too much to hope for. I agree, I can’t see Democrats voting for McCarthy even to keep Gaetz out, when there are better possibilities. Of course Dems in Congres are (righteously) being mum about it.
Nah, there’s no benefit to Dems backing Kevin here. Right now, I’m sure Jeffries and Co are gaming out scenarios for the inevitable chaos, none of which involve them doing this.