After a few decades of being a political junkie, I have developed a few personal habits. And by far and away, one of my favorites has been handicapping Presidential primaries.
It doesn’t matter if it’s the Democrats or the Republicans in a cycle, or both. I go on a daily watch for new people to throw their hats into the ring, and then revel in handicapping them, their chances, but more importantly, their reasons. Because while every Presidential candidate might not actually believe they’ll become President, they all run for some specific reason.
Here is a perfect example. In 2015, there was what appeared to be the largest primary field in history on the GOP side, with 17 candidates running. Boy!, talk about a cornucopia! And in looking through them, there was something that I was almost immediately able to determine. In that mammoth field, there were three candidates that did almost no fundraising, made almost no appearances outside of their own local residences, and only made only one appearance at the first kiddie debate. And wouldn’t you know it? They were all on the final stages of writing a new book, and wanted the creds of Former GOP Presidential Candidate to put on the dust cover.
The same was true in 2020 with the Democrats. When the field shook out, it ended up that there were three sitting congressmen who ran for the Presidency. This is what is known politically as The Treadmill To Nowhere. No sitting congress critter has ever even captured the nomination from their party, much less gone on to become President.
The first one was Hawaii congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard. To be honest, I didn’t know then, nor do I know now why she was running. She represented a state in the middle of the Pacific ocean, and her platform was shaky. As far as I could see, she never campaigned any farther east that the southern California. She is a rather controversial candidate due to some of her views, and never gained traction.
The second one was much easier. Eric Samwell of California got in the race. I have no doubt that Samwell never honestly thought that he would be President, but he ran as a single issue candidate. Samwell ran on gun control legislation. He was horrified by the proliferation of mass shootings in American, and used his platform to run solely on reforming gun laws. He knew he couldn’t win, but his goal was to elevate that single issue into national prominence, and force the party to acknowledge it, and it worked.
And then there was Representative Tim Ryan from the great state of Ohio. I will admit, Ryan flummoxed me. He is apparently popular in his district, but has made no serious national imprint. He has moderate to farther left policies, leaning heavily on workers rights, and the support thereof. But there was nothing in his workers friendly platform that the much better nationally known Biden wasn’t already espousing, and he struggled to gain traction. But I’ll give him credit, Ryan campaigned, and he campaigned hard. But all for naught.
And now, I’ll tip my hat to Representative Ryan. The sly dog really pulled one over on me. Because GOP Senator Rob Portman recently announced that he will not be running for reelection again in 2022. And woe and behold, Tim Ryan’s name has jumped to the top of the short list of Democratic challengers to run for his seat in 2022.
Well played Tim, well played. It is now clear to me, with the wonders of 20/20 hindsight, that this is what Ryan was planning all along. It is clear to me now that whether or not Portman ran for reelection in 2022, Ryan had already decided to challenge him. And so Ryan used his ill fated 2020 Presidential run to enhance his national profile, for future donations, as well as to market himself at home.
And it wasn’t just for national name recognition to launch a future bid for donations. While Ryan may have struggled nationally to gain traction, he would still be a prodigal son of the state of Ohio, and his campaign appearances, and he appeared hard and often, would be covered on the local media at news time. He used his run to increase his statewide name recognition for his 2022 run. And this becomes even more critical now, when a new GOP candidate is going to have to struggle with statewide name recognition and fundraising.
Now, in hindsight, the same could be said for Tulsi Gabbard. Senior Senator Mazie Hirono of Hawaii is getting up in years, and she seems to have survived yet another bout with cancer. It may be that Gabbard looked at 2020 as a chance to challenge Hirono, or hope for her retirement. But somehow or other, I just don’t see it as having quite the same effect in Hawaii.
When I look at these Presidential primaries, all I can see is what I see. But it now appears that Tim Ryan had a long range game in plan, and he executed it. And when he announces his candidacy, I will be a contributing donor. Personally, I like a candidate who looks to the future, and plans accordingly to make it happen.
If you enjoyed this article, you might also like to check out President Evil, and the sequel, President Evil II, A Clodwork Orange . They comprise a pretty much daily report from the front of the 2016 GOP primaries, as well as the general election
Follow me on Twitter at @RealMurfster35
Damn. What you’ve written never occurred to me, and I was (still am – where are the reruns?) a huge fan of West Wing & immediately flashed on an episode or two concerning candidates with no chance. However, the way you’ve laid out reasons for some of these folks running makes it clear that instead of delusions of grandeur some of these doomed from the start candidacies are for some pretty savvy reasons. Sure, there will always be the Sancho Panza types, or even a Pat Paulson redux but you’ve laid out a solid and straightforward case why for a number of candidates there is a solid, long-term plan.
We’re the same age and I’m sure you’ll agree it’s an age where some of the realities of getting to our age suck. Still, there is one thing that remains cool and even fun for me and it’s learning new things.
Murf’s post also demonstrates an important lesson that I feel has gotten during the Trump years. To wit, when something in politics doesn’t make sense at the superficial level, look beyond the obvious. Everything he described is how political positioning works.
About this: “No sitting congress critter has ever even captured the nomination from their party, much less gone on to become President.”
Um, you may be limiting “congress critter” to members of the House but the term also applies to members of the Senate. Congress is made up of the House of Representatives and the Senate.
And there have been a couple of “congress critters” who have captured the nomination from their party and gone on to become President. In fact, one of them was President less than a decade ago. A fellow named Barack Obama? Maybe you remember him? First elected to the US Senate in 2004 and got the Democratic nomination for President in 2008 and won. Leaving aside Gerald Ford (who was pulled from the House in 1973 to become Vice-President and then became President in 1974, and then did receive the GOP nomination in 1976), there was also John F Kennedy who was in his second term in the Senate (having been re-elected in 1958) when he ran for, and won, the Democratic nomination and then went on to win the White House. (Kennedy also served as a Representative before becoming Senator.)
As for members of the House being elected President, James Garfield is the only one to do so (although he’d been chosen by the Ohio legislature to replace John Sherman as Senator in 1880, his term wouldn’t have started until March of 1881). Granted, the nominating process was far different in that era; Garfield was chosen as a kind of compromise candidate (his name got entered on the 35th ballot against his wishes).
Well, I think some folks, actually most folks call their representative Congressman/Congresswoman because one has the term “Senator”. That simple. Maybe.
Could be “laziness” or just tradition. On TV, it seems to me that most anchors or hosts call representatives “congressman”.
But I assume most folks know that Congress is one of the branches of government. Well, except for the moran from Alabama. He coached “fooseball” (too many hits to the head, and why one should wear helmets!).
I think Gabbard’s burned her bridges as far as becoming a Senator.
At least as a Democrat.
From her Wiki page on her “post-Congressional career”:
“In January 2021, Gabbard launched her own podcast: This is Tulsi Gabbard. She has also made several appearances on Fox News programs since leaving Congress, such as Tucker Carlson Tonight and The Ingraham Angle, where she criticized such figures as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and U.S. Representative Adam Schiff, calling the latter a “domestic terrorist” for what she deemed as his attempt to “undermin[e] our constitution by trying to take away our civil liberties and rights” in the aftermath of the 2021 storming of the U.S. Capitol.”
This is NOT the kind of person the Democratic Party needs. I’d rather have a dozen Manchins and Sinemas in the Senate over Tulsi Gabbard. (Not to mention she voted “present” on BOTH articles of impeachment, opting instead to introduce a resolution to “censure” Trump over, in her own words, his, in her own words, “abuses of power.”)
Gabbard makes absolutely no sense. She is all over the map from far right to far left. There’s just no coherence to what she supports.
I’m became a fan of Eric Swalwell (aka Samwell in your piece) during his pseudo-presidential run, impressed by his anti-gun-nut agenda. His family has a law-enforcement history, which lends credence to his stance on gun proliferation. But I was also impressed by his evident comprehension of other serious issues facing the country and his sensible, factual solutions on offer to many of them. Your theory about prepping for a Senate run by posing as a presidential candidate would suggest that Eric might be eyeballing the seat (if you’ll pardon the expression) of Dianne Feinstein, who’ll be over 90 when she’s up for re-election in ’24.
Yeah, I figured Swalwell has his eyes on something; I get emails from him almost daily.
Swalwell was only 37 when he ran for president; he didn’t seriously expect to win so obviously was just raising his profile. He’s not on the impeachment managers team. I discovered him when I need a “control” to provide that people hyping Joe Kennedy III for president (who never had a response when I asked what policies he’d advocated for impressed them). To prove it was just his name that attracted them I searched for another good-looking young congressman with the same amount of experience and came up with Swalwell who was not only the same age and had bee in Congress exactly the same amount of time, but was much more eloquent and outspoken on behalf of a range of progressive policies.
That should be NOW on the impeachment managers team — a plum gig for rising Dem superstars like him and Joe Neguse.
Props to Murf, for educating me on an almost daily basis!
I disagree, since this is about the 6th or 7th time Tim has suggested he was “looking at” a higher race — usually governor or senator. So running for president was just what he does If Portman hadn’t retired — and he took all of us by surprise — Ryan would “look at” it again and stay put. Tim isn’t that cagey a planner; if anything, he may have been trying to shore up his support in his own district but badly miscalculated and had his worst result ever — by far. He’d be a pretty weak candidate again whatever bland Portman clone the GOP puts up — or Jane Timkin who is already boasting proudly about how deep Trumpy Ohio is and is known to be lusting after this seat.
Also you forgot Seth Moulton, another congressperson who briefly ran for president. I know, they’re all forgettable, except Swalwell, who is going places, just not yet. (He is on the second impeachment managers team. He’s also really young).
MURF,
Thanks for the informative peek inside political strategy.
You said: “then revel in handicapping them, their chances, but more importantly, their reasons.”
Do you have some strategies for handicapping them, aside from your incisive wordsmithing?