I was shocked to see Mitch McConnell’s interview in which he said, I think that the GOP has a better chance of flipping the House than we do the Senate. Senate races are different, they’re statewide, and candidate quality counts for a lot.
What shocked me the most wasn’t so much McConnell’s statement, as his demeanor. McConnell wasn’t being alarmist or hyperbolic, in fact he seemed almost defeated. He was gently telling the faithful not to start buying any Dom Perignon to start celebrating when the GOP retakes the Senate in November. I can see him being depressed at the thought. After all, life as Senate Minority Leader hasn’t been much fun since Chuck Schumer started running rings around him.
But why be all doom-and-gloom when it’s still 82 days out? You should be rallying the troops, not dumping cold water all over them. But being the Senate Minority Leader, McConnell has access to the kind of internal polling and cross tabs that can only make me drool. And apparently he sees something. And now I do too.
Cast your mind back 6-12 months. Pre Roe, the Senate field was wide open to the GOP. It was a 50-50 Senate. But the Democrats had what appeared to be truly weak seats to have to defend, Warnock in Georgia, Kelly in Arizona, and Cortez-Masto in Nevada. On the GOP side, their only truly weak candidate was Johnson in Wisconsin. But he is a 2 term incumbent. There are also 3 open seats, in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Ohio, but all 3 have retiring GOP Senators, so advantage GOP.
But what a difference a little passage of time, a disastrous SCOTUS decision, and truly piss poor candidates can do to an electoral map. MSNBC today did a deep dive on the Senate races, including the latest polling, and now I can see why McConnell needs a Xanax;
- In Georgia, Democratic incumbent Raphael warnock is up 4-8 points over Herschel Walker, depending on the poll
- In Arizona, a brand new poll shows Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly with an 8 point lead over his Trombie opponent
- I haven’t seen any polling from Nevada, and likely neither have you. Nevada is notoriously difficult to poll, it’s so transient that it’s hard to keep a voting pool. But since she’s on the air almost every hour, and GOP candidate Adam Laxalt seems to be running a ghost campaign, I find it hard to see Cortez Masto is in deep trouble
- In Pennsylvania, Democrat Jon Fetterman is +8 over veggie tray sot Mehmet Oz. I believe I saw one report that said that the RSCC was pulling its advertising funding out of PA
- In Wisconsin, Democrat Mandela Barnes is +4-7 over GOP incumbent Ron Johnson, depending on the poll. It is clear that Barnes has gotten into Johnson’s head, since his messaging is all over the place
- In North Carolina, Democratic former state Supreme Court justice Cheri Beasley is +4 over her GOP opponent
- In Ohio, Democratic congressman Tim Ryan is +4 over Trump acolyte Hillbilly JD Vance. That one is so alarming that McConnell is shipping millions of dollars from his Super PAC to Ohio for advertising to try to prop Vance up
- And here’s the cherry on top. Florida hasn’t even held its primary yet, but a new poll shows democrat Val Demmings, you guessed it, +5 over Water Boy Marco Rubio
- Late Breaking! A new PA poll out today shows Jon Fetterman is now leading Mehmet Oz by 18 points! And Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro is leading J6 insurrectionist Doug Mastriano by 15 points
No wonder Mitch McConnell is busy doing laps in the Slough of Despond. Not only isn’t a single GOP candidate leading in a vulnerable Democratic race, But McConnell is faced with a slew of races that he shouldn’t even have to worry about suddenly being in serious peril. And RSCC chair Rick Scott seems to be more interested in putting out program papers calling for banning abortion, eliminating Social Security and Medicare, and making poor people pay federal income taxes. I guess we’ll see how deep McConnell’s Super PAC pockets are.
And one more thing. In several of those competitive Senate races, there are also gubernatorial races on the slate. States like FL, PA, WI, OH, and AZ. Strongly run Democratic senatorial campaigns, and strong Democratic turnout could provide the kind of coattails that can drag the rest of the ticket, both up ballot as well as down ballot across the finish line. Dear Lord, don’t touch that dial.
Turtle soup anyone?
Don’t mock turtles
Lol
I’ll bet Yertle is feeling like some pet shop turtle that got tossed into a pond with a big ole snapping turtle! I still worry about levels of voter intimidation/suppression like we’ve never before seen costing us big, not to mention GOP controlled states literally throwing out the actual vote and trying to have their candidates installed. But leaving that aside, I’m thinking at the very worst we maintain the current tie between Democrats and Republicans. And, since we’ve got VP Harris to break ties we’ll manage.
I keep saying and will keep saying as fucked up as it sounds don’t count Walker out in GA. His football exploits in college put him up there just below their Jeebus and when a shitload of those folks (not just guys) get into that voting booth memories of Walker on the gridiron will flood their memories. Of course, Georgia having just won a national championship might blunt that just enough to allow Warnock to squeak out a win, but don’t be surprised if we lose that one. I think Kelly will win going away in AZ, but as I noted it’s more than a little possible the asshats in the legislature and Governor’s mansion will try to ignore the will of the voters. But even SCOTUS might not let that happen. So at worst we’ll split those two races. PA seems likely nowdays so that’s a pickup. Yertle pumping so much money into OH makes me worry about that one but I saw where voter registration has been up among women there and I wouldn’t be surprised if he decides to shove some of that money to other states. Wisconsin leaps to mind. RoJo needs help and that would be a good place for McConnell to place a bet. In NC where I live I’m bracing for the shitshow of bullshit, lying ads we are about to see about Cheri Beasley so I’m worried about what should be a good chance (at this point) for a flip from GOP to us. And down in FL you can bet the farm that DeSantis will make Jeb Bush’s outrageous antics on behalf of his big brother in 2000 look like child’s play. So don’t count on Demmings being able to flip that seat either. McConnell won’t have to invest with DeSantis on the case. (And remember, he wants to run for Prez in 2024 and saving Rubio’s seat will give him real juice in the GOP if we hold or gain in the Senate)
In a dream world we’d flip a lot of stuff and hold in GA and AZ we’d wind up with more than enough to make both Manchin and Sinema irrelevant. Even with another one or even two defecting to try and play the “GOP-Lite” card for their next race. I want to believe we’ll wind up with 54 or even 55 seats but I got my proverbial walk on the moon when the Cubs won the World Series. I’d be just fine with 52 seats, and overjoyed with 53. And THAT actually now seems possible.
I get it Denis, we have had the rug pulled out many times, but so have the republicans. McCaskill for example. I am already expecting holds in GA and Az. Walker may have been a georgia football hero, but he is a mess at campaigning due to his cte. I think Pa is a pickup Oz is a useless candidate. I am going with 51-49 dems in control. McConnell steps down and retires. He hasn’t been in control of the senate since 2017. Elaine has cashed all her chips. time to check out.
the special interest even have their own turtle!
Mitch. Sodomizing Kentucky and America just like he sodomized recruits in the army.
Until the army kicked him out. Then, just like a lawyer with no marketable skills, he got into politics and had his military record “dissappear”.