If you’re Traitor Tot right about now, you had better be spending most of your time hoping that GOP scientists smarter than GOP lawyers can find a way to clone race baiting rednecks and bush burning Evangelicals most riki-tik.
Until now, the media for the most part, backed up by apparent sense has been touting the line that Trump’s indictment in the Mar-A-Lago documents case hasn’t hurt his campaign. Their basic justification is that his poll numbers in the GOP primaries are higher now than they were before he got indicted, his fundraising isn’t suffering, and so far nobody else in the field has managed to find a way to use the indictments to dent him. And all of those are perfectly valid points, no argument.
But candidates do not live by primaries alone. A new poll just released by Politico/Ipso shows that His Lowness may well be swimming in a pool with sharks instead of dolphins in it. Because while El Pendejo Presidente may be cruising towards an almost inevitable GOP renomination, once he gets past that barricade, he’s in the hurt locker.
According to the new poll, when respondents were asked as to whether they thought that Trump was guilty in the documents case. a firm plurality, 49% said that they thought he was guilty. Only 31% thought Trump’s bullsh*t. That included 25% of GOP voters, but worse for Trump, 36% of Independents thought he was guilty, and Trump can’t win without at least some independent support, it’s just not possible. Worse yet, 43% of independents were on the fence about his guilt.
But the whoopee cushion has just started farting. Obviously Trump’s best strategy for his own self survival is to delay the trial for as long as possible, hoping the judge delays it through the election. But if he succeeds, he’s only going to piss off a majority of the voters. When asked when they wanted to see Trump’s documents trial take place, a clear majority of 62% wanted it completed before the presidential election. That included 46% of GOP voters, and 48% of independent voters.
This s a canary in the coal mine for Trump, and it’s hanging upside down on its perch. While the majority of Americans currently believe that Trump is guilty, there is a sizeable ,ishy-middle that could go either way. But unfortunately for The Trumpster Fire, almost all of them want to know whether or not he’s guilty before they go to the polls.
And that’s terrible news for Trump, simply because there is at least 61% of American voters are tuned in and motivated by Trump’s indictment and upcoming trial. And they all want the answer to that question before they decide whether or not to vote to return a national security nightmare to the White House. And my gut tells me that if they don’t have it, they’ll hold that against Trump for trying to deceive them.
But because this is an equal opportunity article, there is one bright spot for Trump in the poll. When asked if Trump should be imprisoned if he was convicted, a minority of 43% felt that he should be slammed away. That’s the bright spot. That’s the good news. The bad news is that 43% is by far and away the largest bloc in the poll. 18% want probation, 17% want a stiff financial penalty but no time, and 22% want no penalties at all. Which is infantile, since nobody gets convicted of a federal crime and walks off scot free. More prescient is the fact that almost 2x as many people want Trump locked up as want him left off.
I will leave you with this. Everything in this poll is based solely on Trump’s indictments for the purloined documents case. What happens to those numbers if two weeks from now Jack Smith comes out and indicts The Cheeto Prophet of criminal violations related to the Capitol riot? And if Fani Willis comes out in the 2nd week of August with RICO related voter fraud charges in Georgia? My guess is that it only gets worse for him from here. Don’t touch that dial.