At 9:00 p.m. next Tuesday, October 1st, vice presidential candidate Tim Walz will square up against J.D. Vance in what will likely be a historic debate for under-card candidates. There is likely no precedent for the importance of this debate due to the fact that it will be the last showdown between the two campaigns, Kamala Harris’s defenestration of Donald Trump in their debate, and because of Donald Trump’s age, putting even more importance on the matter. Additionally, as if it need even be said, there is a palpable sense of anger, even hatred, between the two campaigns. It will be as aggressive as it is critical.
In every campaign, the vice-presidential debates take on significantly more importance than the actual job often entails. But there are long-lived moments that cut deeper. Who can ever forget the smiling, “That’s a bunch of malarkey” comment Joe Biden launched against Paul Ryan? Virtually no one. It was the perfect pitch at the perfect moment, showing the seasoned Biden brushing aside a ridiculous claim by the upstart Ryan. It has long lasted and was important at the time. These moments come with the job and loom large during the campaign.
Tim Walz is a twice elected big state governor who served six terms in the House of Representatives prior. Meanwhile, J.D. Vance is a scary smart very junior senator of two years. The experience quotient runs deeply for Walz, though one underestimates Vance at his or her peril.
Both represent “mid-west goodness” for lack of a better term, both are expected to bring mid-west values into the critical blue-collar belt across Middle America. Walz, however, like Harris, is seen as far less extreme than the MAGA men Trump and Vance. This is especially true given Vance’s race to the US Senate and his allegiance to the decidedly extremists under the MAGA banner. Liberals tend to believe that neither Walz nor Harris are far enough to the Left. C’est la vie in American politics these days.
But this is about something bigger than two lower-tier candidates. There is a sense that this country isn’t big enough for the two parties and one fears late November already. Any match between the two campaigns comes with a tinge of “losing is not an option” feel. It genuinely feels like a battle between the American spirit that is split almost too perfectly, 50-50. The animosity renders the entire matter, no matter who is debating, up up up.
Given the last debate, the Trump campaign has to see this as a massive opportunity. Even a draw at this point would be good enough to pull a Trump campaign that has been reeling, maybe bleeding, since the last debate. Meanwhile, the Harris camp must feel extremely confident due to their hugely successful first debate and momentum. But they better be careful.
Kamala Harris threw Trump for a loop about eating pets and rally size, distracting Trump from any real messaging as he went into angry gibberish. Vance, say what you want, is not the type. He will be guarding against any temptation to get bogged down in personal attacks or muddy memes. His inexperience may turn into a positive in that he will likely be highly coached into a more moderate and disciplined approach. Meanwhile, Walz just has to be the experienced, happy-go-lucky teacher and football coach, one that simply looks over to Vance to note, “That’s weird.”
Last, there is the matter of Trump’s age. He would take the oath of office as a 78 year old man, and one that is declining at that. Trump is also famous for his fast food bent and his tendency to put on weight when stressed only to then take it off just as fast. He is not in very good physical shape. If there was ever a president that might suffer health consequences while in office, it would be Donald Trump. President Joe Biden is already noticeably suffering the weight of such responsibility. So, J.D. Vance has the additional burden of being seen as a true presidential possibility which simply adds to the stress he doesn’t need.
In the end, the real pressure remains with Vance. He needs to diminish a Harris with a smashing victory. Walz just has to be sure that the Trump campaign doesn’t ride out with a clear triumph. Few would expect Walz to make such a serious stumble. Vance is carrying the MAGA flag that desperately needs a win in a debate in which there may not be a big win available.
But don’t expect Vance to get similarly blanched. This will be a prize fight like few other vice-presidential debates. Bring the popcorn and, as always, no gambling.
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Even after the tko, drump said he won…
Mr. Walz will make mincemeat out of the hillbilly, and do it with a smile.
How? Content over vapidity.
Vance will use smoke and mirrors, half-truths, sub-diffuse, deflection, distraction, misrepresentation, lies, misinformation, disinformation and any other device to come across as having integrity, transparency, so as to portray honesty and reliability. This’ll all come to nought for him, as most likely his Trumpian, MAGA, and GOP strategy of weird reasoning and horse-hole responses will only be as effective as a bucket with a hole in it … he may not get “… blanched …” as you state above, but by contrast, Waltz should be competent and be able to easily enlarge the obvious hole in Vance’s bucket.
While I hope you two are right, I caution everyone about underestimating Vance. He is very smart and will stay on message, whatever that may be. Be cautious, and be ready. A draw is just huge bc then the momentum keeps trucking along. If he scores a clear victory, that’s clearly a huge thing.
Sure, but what will that message be? If somehow Walz or the questioners can get him to start raving about proj. 1825, or even admitting he likes it, that would be one hell of a message to put out there. I also cannot believe he won’t denigrate the Haitians some more what with a national audience and all that.
Point taken, Jason. Thus the use of those descriptors, because it takes ‘smarts’ to use them, and know when and where they were and are being used.