Laws of Political Physics Aren’t Suspended So Much As Turned Into A Lava Lamp

In an article here on Politizoom this weekend Ursula again wrote about how Trump has suspended the Laws of Political Physics. Lots of other have said or written the same thing including me but it’s occurred to me that suspended means being sort of frozen.  Instead I’m thinking that rather than being suspended “laws” or commonly accepted understanding of ‘political physics’, or norms have been continually shifting in size and shape, just as one saw with Lava Lamps which were common a half century ago. What’s happened with Trump is instead of the slow process we remember, the heating element at the bottom of the lamp has speeded up what happens to the blobs of political wax.

Today is election day, with major states having ‘off year’ elections for state offices and there’s a major ballot initiative out in California. I’ll get to that in more detail later but I want to start with this: There has been endless speculation about what will happen today. Even more speculation had discussed what results we don’t have yet will mean, both for next year’s midterms and even for 2028. It will be interesting much of the time to be sure. Sometimes even entertaining or infuriating or a mix of both BUT don’t get too caught up in it. One thing history has to each us is that the predictors, be they pundits or politicians sometimes get it wrong. Both what will happen on election day and what the results mean for coming elections.

So, don’t get overly caught up in the ‘this is what the results tell us’, ‘this is what we can expect moving forward’ and related talk. For all the speculation bear in mind voting habits don’t change much, much less on a dime. Maintain some perspective folks, and try to think of what happens with elections today, or politics overall (like who will ‘win’ the shutdown battle) doesn’t predict as much as we think it will. Whether we realize it or not things are always changing. That includes laws of politics which aren’t the least bit suspended or frozen, but rather continuously, albeit ever so slowly most of the time morphing. Adapting.

My epiphany is that our politics, so-called norms and political ‘laws’ are in a constant state of change. Just like I recall watching in those old lava lamps.  (If you’ve never seen one, or it’s been a long, long time here you go)We can look at what’s going on. See changes in shapes, and collisions about to happen but what we can’t do is know what blob will change shape and by how much, whether blobs that seemed destine to collide will in fact do so, and most importantly what will be the result of them colliding!  You just have to wait, and trust the Zen Master’s two word statement in response to people proclaiming what a given even will mean saying “We’ll see.” .

Lava lamps were often associated with hippies or cannabis culture but you saw them in plenty of places where no one was into weed.  They could be mesmerizing, and when high or just plain wasted drunk become the sole focus of your attention. For you younger folks, the title pic is a good representation of the display EXCEPT it’s a still photo. When switched on the blobs of wax were slowly rising and falling, sometimes individual blobs were form bigger blobs and sometimes blobs colliding would cause a larger one to break up. Try as one might it was impossible to predict what would happen. All you could do was watch and see what happened in the next few minutes, or five to ten minutes and as I said that could sometimes turn into hours.  For all that many people only glanced at them now and then, just as many people only glance at politics or many things that affect both personal lives and entire communities, the country or even the world. Just as science is true whether you believe it or not, the process of political machinations including shifts and changes happens whether you see it or not.

Why does this matter?  Whether we realize it or not, and whether we like it or what happens politically affects each and every one of us. However even experts are often wrong about what will happen both in the short and long term.  It’s not like we are powerless to affect what will happen but it takes a LOT of sustained effort. Even then we can’t be sure how it will all turn out any more than we can know what the lava lamp will look like even ten minutes from now.  More often than not we just have to put in the work, then sit back and see what happens.  So my point for those who don’t want to read more is not to read too much one way or the other into how the elections happening this very minute unfold.  For those that want to engage in some serious thought, read on.

As I’ve said, politics and rule of groups of people have changed constantly throughout human history including here in the U.S. Here, and in other places that have more or less fair and open elections it can change faster than in places where Monarch or authoritarians rule but change has always been inevitable. That’s true starting at the local level, then up to the state and federal level. It’s even true of world politics. If you look at history it’s easy to see how things shift and world affairs provide stark examples of major changes. Old alliances morph by changing their focus and/or priorities. Sometimes they grow, sometimes they fall apart and sometimes who drives the process changes. The same is true of politics, including in our country. We have two major political Parties. The Democratic Party, established with founding father Thomas Jefferson is our oldest major Party. The Republican Party was formed in the Civil War era.  Both have always had people who wanted to keep the status quo and people who wanted their Party to change what it stood for.

I find it fascinating how the two Parties have shifted. Like two huge rivers they merged like the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers do forty miles south of where I grew up. Then it’s all a single river until it empties into the Gulf of Mexico. However in U.S. Politics instead of it all having mixed together imagine the Mississippi River flowing along for a while with the waters of two rivers co-mingled then splitting up again into two huge, separate rivers. With some, or even much of each one having changed from being part of one river before the co-mingling and the other after they separate again.  No American issue demonstrates this more so than slavery. I have GOPers I grew up with who gleefully taunt me with the fact is was the Democratic Party that fought to keep slavery, and then for Jim Crow. That it was Republicans, the Party of Lincoln that freed the slaves. That’s true but a shift was underway even as WWII began. It picked up steam after and during the 1960s a clear realignment was in the works.

On both slavery and conservatism in general the GOP which was strongly influenced by ‘northeastern liberals (and Senator Everett Dirksen of my homes state Illinois) that championed  Civil and Voting rights changed. So did the Democratic Party with a doubling down on FDR’s progressive expansion of the federal government and efforts to provide a more equal and fair society whether it be on social issues or economic ones. By the time Reagan was elected must of the switching had taken place and by the time Bill Clinton was elected the shift that was pretty much a done deal during the 1970s was officially complete. Democrats were the progressives and Republicans were the conservatives.

EACH Party has undergone serious debate since about any changes in philosophy and focus. New factions form and old ones fall with each Party. Same with the handful of people who lead each Party. Sometimes the internal debates are mild and civil and sometimes not. We Democrats might chortle over the internecine warfare that’s broken out in the GOP. Trump swallowed it whole with wide MAGA jaws but all along there have been those who didn’t like it one bit. They were just too afraid, to invested in maintaining their own political careers to band together to stop what was going on.  They keep hoping some OTHER Republican or group of Republicans, or even Democrats will step up and rid them, the country and the world of Trump and Trumpism. Some pretty nasty fights have broken out and we Democrats have enjoyed watching it, and also looking at how to help the cracks grow into outright breakage of the GOP into parts.

However we Democrats have some things going on amongst ourselves too. Nothing illustrates this more than the resistance of old, literally OLD Democrats refusing to retire and help a new generation of leaders with a different vision step up more than people like AOC, and now Mamdani coming along.  Dianne Feinstein’s refusal to retire and what her ineffectiveness (in her later years) on Senate Judiciary are a case in point. Nancy Pelosi and her second Steny Hoyer stubbornly refused to train up new leadership in the House for too long.  Not that change always works out. Harry Reid knew it was time to step aside but look who we got in his place. Chuck Schumer has had some good moments here and there but for the most part has for many of us been a disappointment, as have some of the chairs of important Senate Committees.  A new generation of Democrats and even a lot of old farts like me think it’s long past time for new blood. Alas, with Trump looming the choice was made to start at the very top and shove Biden aside. Nancy freaking Pelosi was a leader in that, and for that I will never forgive her.

Anyway, my point is that in both major Parties there are new relationships and alliances being explored and even tested. Things will change. Sometimes via the ballot box in primaries and sometimes because people up and die. But they will change as they always have. In nature itself change is constant but usually take place over time. A LOT of time. Geologic time is something beyond most people’s comprehension but there are periods of sudden upheaval that create huge, instant change. The same is true in politics, again from the local level all the way up to world affairs. We are all in the lava lamp right now, part of blobs of wax floating around, bumping into each other and sometimes becoming part of a larger blob and sometimes breaking up into smaller ones. The only difference is that IF we really work hard at it we can sometimes actually affect how the blobs of wax grow or break up.  Elections of course are a huge part of that, but just as important is the narrative created by people of influence be they elected officials, unelected money/power brokers and pundits.

“Off Year” elections are taking place in multiple important jurisdictions. The sun has risen out east on this election day. Early votes are in and in the states involved will be being processed and/or counted so we’ll get some indicators on the east coast by nine, or ten p.m. how things have gone. I’d imagine thata well before midnight in the eastern time zone we’ll know who won and by how much and the chattering class will have plenty to talk and write about. So will leaders of both the Democratic and Republican Parties although what they will say publicly and what they will discuss privately could be quite different. On the latter we’ll eventually find out but that could take a while.

So let’s review what’s up for grabs today?  There’s the election for mayor in New York City that might end the career of Andrew Cuomo if he gets soundly beaten by Mamdani which a fair number of experts think will happen. Trump will go ballistic (as will the GOP) over a MUSLIM being Mayor of our largest city. In New Jersey former Naval Aviator (and Academy grad) AND Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill is expected to win but Democrats are concerned with polling showing the face close enough for an upset.

Virginia is going to get plenty of attention. Former CIA Officer and Democratic Congresswoman Abagail Spanberger is expected to win by a solid margin. What will be interesting is if she can push it into double digits. However the races for Lt. Gov. and AG are far closer than Democrats would like and it’s possible the GOP might pick off one or both of them so stand by. Control of the legislature is also on the line. People elsewhere have tended to think of Virginia as a blue state for a while now BUT despite signs of it turning as solidly Blue as it once was Red, it’s at best been light blue.  In other words there’s likely to be a whole lot to fuss over from whatever the results turn out to be in that state.

Then there’s the ballot proposition in California that would until the next census set aside the non-partisan election district maps until after the 2030 Census. Gov. Newsom engineering this to counter Texas’ naked stealing of five Democratically held seats in Congress. Newsom believes (and I agree) this is a ‘fight fire with fire’ situation.  What will cause endless speculation is the margin by which that initiative passes. And if everyone is wrong and it fails? Wow. Folks will talk of little else and Trump might get so amped up he has a stroke. (a silver lining?)

One thing not being talked about much is today is also the day for municipal elections s statewide in North Carolina where I live. This is by all measures other than voting maps a purple state. There’s a slight advantage for Democrats in Party registration over Republicans but registered Independents outnumber both!  Alas, both at the state and Congressional level this state has been one of the most viciously gerrymandered in the country by the GOP. Worse, a map the courts forced the GOP to accept that while not giving equal representation at least allowed a handful more Democrats has been tossed out in favor of a HUGELY Republican one. Even if the Democratic Governor (Josh Stein) was empowered to veto is (he’s not) the GOP has a super-majority in both chambers of the legislature.  However I’d suggest keeping an eye on what happens with North Carolina’s municipal elections. You can bet the professionals in both the Democratic and Republican Parties will parse through reams of data on who won where and the issues that caused them to vote the way they will today.

Virginia is considered a ‘bellweather’ by political prognosticators and this year New Jersey because of the closeness of the Governor’s race is being talked about the same way.  However, and this gets me back to the political laws of physics and the saying “all politics are local” that North Carolina might have the most important story to tell.  Or will it?

A single month can be a year in politics and a whole freaking year a lifetime. Unforeseen events can reshape not just individual political races but the overall picture. For example the Hamas terrorist attack over the fence into Israel had, at least in my own humble opinion reshaped the 2024 race. Biden was in an impossible position with a large chunk of Americans wanting us to support destroying Hamas and willing to tolerate a lot of suffering from innocent civilians who had Hamas forced on them by none other than Israel’s Netanyahu. Yet another large chunk saw so much indiscriminate killing and destruction and was horrified, demanding Netanyahu and his government be brought to heel with severe conditions for continued strong U.S. support.  Kamala Harris inherited the mess when Biden passed the baton to her. I’ll always believe she would have felt free to take a tougher stance and would have done so BUT this country can only have one President at a time and it’s the sitting President who sets both policy and the diplomatic tone. She was handcuffed because she had to ‘non-answer’ pointed questions about what she’d do differently.

Then there’s the economy which is what truly affect most Americans the most. Unexpected shocks have happened in my lifetime that changed the political narrative and along with it the direction of this country. Again, some of that can get started overseas. You see what I’m getting at?  I used to joke that the reason I never got an ulcer was I never thought when things were going well (both for me personally or the country) that it would last. There was ALWAYS something out there that would whack me/the country upside the head!   That philosophy allowed me to spend less time complaining, and more quickly move to the “how to fix this’ way of thinking.

Sometimes major changes are needed. Distancing from old friends and other things including say a job that was wrecking my health and life. Then forming new friends and ways to go about living. So it is, and frankly always has been with politics. We are seeing changes in the works in both the Democratic and Republican Parties. Old alliances breaking apart and new ones forming. Turning away from longtime leaders who seem to have lost touch, or seem too wedded to the customs of DC politics which any objective observer can see simply don’t exist, or simply are nowhere near as strong as they were for so much of my life.

Like the wax blobs in a lava lamp they keep changing, with blobs breaking up, new ones being formed and even blobs themselves simply changing shape!  What I think has happened since Trump came along is that a newer more intense light has heated up the oil in which the blobs do their thing.  Changes, UNPREDICTAGLE ones are it seems to me happening at an increasing rate. Like the blobs of wax in the lava lamp political laws/norms keep changing shape, breaking apart and combining with new blobs/political laws, again in unpredictable ways.

So, in the end when you look at election results tonight and the sure to come analysis as the week goes on don’t go getting excited or fall into a sense of despair. Think of it all not say as a “snapshot” but a few second GIF. Indicative both of where things stand and a W.A.G (wild assed guess) of where they will go.  But either way keep your eye on the horizon. As the saying goes act like your/we are ten points down until the last polling location has closed on election day a year from now.  Team Trump is already cheating and lord knows what they will come up. The more it looks like the House, and perhaps even the Senate will change hands the more panicked Trump and the GOP will become.  Animals, including humans are the most dangerous when wounded.  They can and do lash out in unpredictable ways so be ready for anything.

For now let’s hope tonight, or tomorrow morning it you go to be early out east you wake up to a kick ass night for Democrats. If it works out that way enjoy it for a little bit then get back to work on educating, registering and mobilizing voters.

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