Jordan Short of Needed Votes. Does Time Work For Or Against Him”

It’s a simple question that’s complicated as hell to try and answer. When the plan House Republicans started the day with, to meet and choose Jim Jordan for Speaker in closed conference, then quickly move to the floor to make it official fell apart they put things off. Now the plan is to try for a formal vote on Tuesday. But the question remains. As the war in Israel ramps up and Congress needs to approve certain actions not having a Speaker is to say the least problematic. Republicans want to move quickly, but they also don’t want to embarrass themselves like they did back in January. Jordan is the frontrunner to be sure but well short of the votes he needs. More importantly, just like Scalise had baggage at the outset so did Jordan.  With the weekend and Monday too will come lobbying both private and public. To wit:

• Jordan’s inflammatory history combined with his failure to produce bombshells against Biden in his committee. And let’s not forget the issue of his failure to protect wrestlers under his charge while coaching at Ohio State.
• Trump has weighed in and quickly backed Jordan, which still wasn’t enough for Jordan to beat Scalise in the first closed door attempt to pick a Speaker. Trump hasn’t had that much to say publicly which I find interesting. He might have been stunned that with a secret ballot so many people ignored him! Well, regardless Truth Social’s financial plug has been pulled as of today and he’s got plenty of legal problems. He might not be able to bully as many House Republicans as needed to make Jordan Speaker.

So keep those two things in your thoughts in the next few days.

To no one’s surprise except House Republicans who thought they had a plan to elect a Speaker that would actually work this time, everything is on hold. Again. Until (supposedly) Tuesday but it remains to be seen if even then the House GOPers will be ready to try and resolve this. I’ll bet they are still reeling tonight because they really thought before the workday was done we’d have a new Speaker. After all, Scalise dropped out and said the proper stuff about the needs of the American people coming first and the House needing a Speaker. That’s code for him admitting there was no way in hell he was going to get all of Jordan’s supporters to back him, much less the extra votes still needed to get to 217. Not with Jordan making it clear since the secret ballot that Scalise won he was one unhappy camper. However, Jordan being the a-hole he is rubbed a lot of folks the wrong way and it’s been coming back to bit him. Let’s take a closer look, shall we?

I’ve already written that he began sabotaging Scalise’s bid for Speaker right then and there. I noted that within an hour of that closed door conference where Jordan lost (despite Trump’s backing) that he was in Scalise office saying the latter would get ONE vote on the floor, and when he didn’t get 217 votes he was going to turn around and endorse ole “Gym HE GROPED ME COACH Jordan.” With the GOP caucus under pressure to abandon secret voting and go on the record (so Trump would know who was supporting who) Scalise as I said knew there was no way he could win. So he dropped out and endorsed Jordan and that was supposed to be that. House Republicans would meet, hold their vote and then take it to the floor.  There was still the same math problem that existed before which is that every vote for either Scalise or Jordan combined STILL didn’t add up to 217. But as they say hope springs eternal or some such thing, and GOPers crossed their fingers and hoped that unlike January once the voting on the floor started the holdouts would come around.

There were two problems. Jordan didn’t run unopposed as Rep. Austin Scott of Georgia, a “moderate” (which means hard core conservative, just not RWNJ MAGA bat-sh*t insane) decided to enter the race. There are after all lots of people in the GOP who would like to move past Trump and MAGA but are afraid of losing their seats if they stand up to Trump and his minions. But Scott stepped up to provide an alternative (a much needed one) to Jordan. The second problem was that Jordan already faced clear and apparently solid opposition as I noted in the article of mine I linked, and in addition to specific members a more general issue which is also addressed in this one from The Guardian:

Brian Mast, from Florida, acknowledged that Scalise’s downfall so soon after that of McCarthy had created bad blood in the party.

“One of the obstacles is simply the fact that Kevin got thrown out [and] Steve wasn’t able to come to the floor,” Mast said. “Just that being the case, there’s going to be people that are upset and … possibly want to take it out on Jim just because that happened.”

Austin Scott is someone even most of his colleagues hardly know, yet Jordan only beat him in the first vote by 124 – 81. Jordan got a second vote but still only improved to 152 – 55. Uh Oh. That’s way, way short of 217. But again, do the math. If every vote in both rounds of voting had gone to Jordan he was double digits short of the number he needs.

MAGA and “might-as-well-be-MAGA” Republicans in the House could care less what Liz Cheney has to say but there are between fifty and sixty swing predicted swing districts up for grabs next year. Including I think around twenty held by mostly first term Republicans that were carried by Biden in 2020. They will not only pay attention to, but think long and hard in the next three days about what she has to say when she suggested “the conference would make a dangerous mistake if it elected Jordan.” She went on to say:

“Jim Jordan was involved in Trump’s conspiracy to steal the election and seize power; he urged that [then vice-president Mike] Pence refuse to count lawful electoral votes,” Cheney, who was vice-chair of the January 6 committee, said on social media. “If [Republicans] nominate Jordan to be speaker, they will be abandoning the constitution. They’ll lose the House majority and they’ll deserve to.”

It will be an interesting few days. Trump will no doubt weigh in some on Jordan’s behalf, if only to save face for himself. However he’s got to be shaken that Jordan didn’t win in a walk both against Scalise, and then “Who the hell is this guy?” Austin Scott.  So as I said the level of Trump advocating for Jordan is something to watch for. The other is how loud and pointed the opposition to Jordan is, and whether more are willing to go on the record saying “No Freaking Way” which in effect is telling Trump “sorry but it’s time you worry about you and let us take care of us.”

Personally, I’m sick of this kind of “interesting” but it’s the country we live in now. And how it all turns out is critical for both us and the world. Jim Jordan as Speaker would be a disaster second only to Trump being President.