From the time that Donald Trump farted and clanked his way down that rattletrap escalator in Dump Tower, he was a national joke. In bad taste. But from the start, he had a loyal 35% base of unrepentant lowlife losers that ensured him the nomination in the GOP.
Then came the general election. And as I have written repeatedly, people who Monday morning quarterbacked by bitching about the late national polling were off base. For the most part, the final week polls from the reputable national polls nailed it. They had the basic final percentages spot on, with Clinton winning by a couple of points. But what the national polls didn’t show, because it’s not their job, is micro-polling swing districts in battleground states that ultimately gave Traitor Tot the electoral college.
So what went wrong? In a simple acronym, GIGO Garbage In Garbage Out. Any poll is only as good as the honesty of the people answering the poll. And in suburban and exurban areas across the country, the pollsters, doing their best, ran up against a wall of bullsh*t.
This was the vaunted Trump Ghost Army. It turned out that while Traitor Tot had a reliable, rock solid base of about 35% who didn’t care who knew it. There were others. Trump was after all an ass clown, an embarrassment to intelligent folks everywhere. But there turned out to be a soft underbelly of disaffected soft GOP, soft Democratic, and independent voters who were fed up with the whole political process. And who knows? Maybe what the country really needed was a bold, brash, racist New York billionaire to hit DC like a hammer and get it going again. But that doesn’t mean that they wanted their family, friends, neighbors and coworkers laughing their asses off at them. So they lied the pollsters. And they put Trump over the top.
Which brings us to 2024, and the shoe is on the other foot. In 2016 moderate, sane voters were embarrassed to admit that they backed a total sh*theel like Trump, so they kept it to themselves. But by 2018 most of them had already realized their mistake, and quietly pulled back their support for Trump without anybody knowing. And by 2020, the disaffected Democrat, GOP, and independent Trump tree was pretty well bare. Winter had come to Trumptopia.
But then came 2020. And after it January 6th, 2021. And some of those soft GOP, Democratic, and independent voters who came out of the closet in support of Trump in 2016 learned that when the devil calls in his loan, he collects souls for interest.
They saw the carnage January 6th, and saw that the true nature of the Trump base was. And they saw the terrible manhandling of Ruby Freeman and her daughter, Shea Moss, the AR-15 armed mobs gathered outside of the houses of Michigan Democrats and GOP House Speaker Rusty Bauer in Arizona.
And quickly realized that this might not be the time to publicly jump off of the Trump Train. These motherf*ckers are crazy, and they have the firepower to prove it. They quietly either stayed home or secretly voted for Democrats in 2022, avoiding a GOP wave.
And now we’re in 2024. Trump is thrice indicted, due to be four times indicted next week, and his base is feral. Which is why I think that there’s trouble for Trump in the upcoming GOP primaries. A poll released this week of GOP Iowa voters showed Trump with 54% support. But the same poll showed that 46% of Iowa GOP voters had open minds, and were willing to consider other candidates. This is not the kind of a reception the owner of the GOP wants going into a primary. And remember that Trump actually lost the 2016 primaries to Ted Cruz.
Watch out for Trump’s 2024 ghost army. They lied to the pollsters in 2016 out of embarrassment in 2016, but will they either sit out or vote against Trump in secret in 2024? The polls are only as good as the honesty of the respondents. And somehow or other, Trump supporters, especially weak ones, don’t strike me as a bunch of stand up guys.