Huzzah! Dem Vote Up 50 to 39%, 5Mil Advantage Nationally. “If Repubs Not At the Upper End Of Turnout Models, They’re In Trouble”

Let me give you some music for your ears and some candy for your eyes. So far the youth turnout is good. So far we are building a Democratic firewall.

It is way too early to speculate on who could be winning but we can absolutely measure turnout and you knew going into the election cycle that turnout was key.

Another good sign is that Fox News keeps talking about stolen elections. Tucker Carlson mewling and puking the other day was the bellwether. They’re worried so that’s the default position they’re taking.  Here’s what it looks like midday on Election Day 2022.

Happy Election Day, midday!

No Election Day turnout numbers, but got more early vote fr TargetEarly:
– EV turnout 43m, 8% over 18
– Ds up 50-39 (+11), 5m natl vote lead
– In 18 at this point 47-44 (+3), 20 48-41 (+7)
– D state "firewalls" growing, electorate getting younger 👇 https://t.co/5poVsdQNKq

— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) November 8, 2022

Dear everybody – the Election Day vote is going to be more R than usual. It's because the Dems blew it out in the early vote, and enter ED with huge leads across US.

Any commentator not balancing ED data w/data from 45m who've voted early is purposefully misleading.

More 👇 https://t.co/B72QHTUHbH

— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) November 8, 2022

Republicans yesterday – ignore the early vote. It doesn't tell you anything.

Republicans today – based on three hours of Election Day vote in state xxx it's clear we've won both the Senate and House.

Friends, we will know what happens soon. Keep working hard! https://t.co/B72QHTUHbH

— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) November 8, 2022

This is a good one. Now the Democrats are being blamed for traffic jams.

No part of the tweet below is accurate. The vast majority of Vote Centers are seeing wait times under 30 minutes, and whether by tabulator or secure ballot box, all voters are being served.
Find locations and estimated wait times at https://t.co/8vtd1lBUCT pic.twitter.com/dOi3emV5Tl

— Maricopa County (@maricopacounty) November 8, 2022

Here is an image that will do your heart good.

As @RonBrownstein and @tbonier have been arguing the election may come down to how many young people vote today.

This is a good sign. https://t.co/jdS3FxjiiS

— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) November 8, 2022

Here’s another.

Young voters are showing up in intense numbers, just take a look at the line at the University of Florida. pic.twitter.com/PQ8vco9442

— Jayden D’Onofrio (@jaydendonofrio) November 8, 2022

There is a debate whether the actual Hispanic breakdown is 37% Republican or 30% Republican. That is a yuge difference. We may not know how it all came out in the wash until after the election.

I can tell you that the Hispanic vote is supposed to be determinative here in Nevada in the contest between Catherine Cortez Masto and Adam Laxalt. Cortez Masto is predicted to hold her seat, according to Jon Ralston, a local journalist and political analyst with one hell of a track record at reading the political tea leaves.

More stats as they become available.

Stay tuned.