People come and go in politics, whether elected folks, appointed ones or advisors/consultants. They get older and just want to retire and enjoy life. They get a better paying or less stressful (or both) gig. Or they simply get sick of it all, which in recent years have motivated a lot of people to get out of DC. For elected officials, there’s always the prospect that they are likely to lose their seat, either in the next general election or even in a primary fight. That last one is something many a House Republican (not that Senators are immune) has been looking hard at with each new election given the growing influence of MAGA.
PolitiZoom’s very own Murfster has written in the past to keep an eye out for any big batch of retirements. He correctly notes that it tells what’s going to happen long before the voting starts. A big wave of retirements from one side indicates their members and Party has solid internal polling that they are going to take a beating. What politician wants their blurb in the history books to lead with words to the effect that they were voted out of office? I sure as hell wouldn’t want that. It’s one thing to lose in a competitive race, but a wave of retirements means that a lot of people know they are going to get their butts kicked. And some, who might have a chance throw in the towel too since they don’t want to be in the minority.
Well, The Hill has published an article that details a list of members of both Parties who have decided it’s time to move on from the U.S. House of Representatives. I cited Murster earlier and he’s spot-on with his assessment that one side having a big wave of retirements is a key indicator on what to expect. For that reason when I saw the headline for the article I linked to I wasted no time clicking on it. I have to admit after reading through the list hoping to get an early read on next year I can’t really say I know any more than I did before.
Both Democrats and Republicans have a number of people leaving the House. On both sides of the aisle they fall into two groups. One group is those who are simple retiring, in most cases because of age or health. The other group is made up of those who are seeking other elected office. Either way, we won’t be seeing any of these individuals on the ballot a year from now. What I found disappointing is that with few exceptions the seats will likely stay with the same Party. Murfster has written more than once recently that Cook Political Report estimates at least 50 and maybe as many as 60 House seats will be competitive next year. He can correct me if I’m wrong but “competitive” means within a five point range for a Party one way or the other. A lot can happen in a year that can wipe out such a margin. So, those will be the races to watch.
However, as I’ve stated that barely factors in to the current list of retirees. Running through it for certain we will lose one seat. Here in NC where I live the GOP added a turncoat Democrat to its ranks and has veto proof supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature so they’ve ignored court orders and pushed through another of their viciously gerrymandered maps. As a result, Jeff Jackson was “drawn out” and has decided to run to replace retiring State Attorney General Josh Stein (Democrat) next fall. Out in California Katie Porter would seem safe for re-election but she’s one of several House Democrats who’ve decided to run for the late Dianne Feinstein’s Senate Seat. Barb Lee and Adam Schiff are also running for the Senate but their districts are way strong Democratic. Porter barely won her first term. As I said her getting re-elected was a good sign and indicates a bit of a Democratic lean but I’m not so sure (given her district) it would lean our way without Porter. Another race to be concerned about is in Michigan where Elise Slotkin is running to replace Senator Debbie Stabinow. Her seat is rated as a “toss up” and Michigan can be tricky.
Having said all that given how the GOP keeps shooting itself in the foot on abortion and reproductive rights I like our chances in competitive districts. However as I said most of the districts with Representatives leaving aren’t competitive. So we’ll have to wait a bit longer.
If I had to guess right now I don’t think we are going to see a “wave” of retirements. Today’s NYT/Siena poll in five battleground states notwithstanding I think President Biden will see his approval numbers go up next year. Frankly, I think the non-totally-MAGA Republicans are thinking the same thing. Democrats by their/our nature tend to initially freak out over such news but I’m thinking internal polls show the same. And there’s one number in there that hasn’t gotten much discussion when it comes to the Trump/Biden choice which currently favors Trump in those states. If he’s convicted in any of his court cases that number instantly flips! Judge Loose Cannon has every intention of postponing Trump’s trial until after Jeebus’ second coming but Trump IS going on trial in DC next spring and will almost certainly be convicted.
And who knows what might happen in GA in the meantime? I don’t doubt for a second that Fani Willis was dead serious when she said the state was ready to go right away if Trump or any other defendant exercised their speedy trial option. I also don’t think the judge down there in Fulton County is going to put up with much of the typical Trump delay crap. If more defendants there plead out (as is likely) in the weeks ahead we could be looking at only a handful of defendants and maybe a state trial in Georgia starting in late Jan. or early Feb. That’s something Willis and Jack Smith would have to talk about because if Georgia starts it will mean pushing the federal trial date in DC. The point though is that Trump’s support will crater with a conviction.
It could be many House Republicans are hoping for exactly that, and that as a result Trump won’t be their nominee. With him at the top of the ticket they know the bullet they dodged in 2020 will hit them this time thanks to the abortion issue. I suspect their own internal polls are telling them no Trump on the ticket means they can win next November.
So again, I could be wrong but while the list in the linked article will grow I don’t think we are going to see a huge number of retirements from either side.
Don’t count on Trump being convicted flipping the numbers. His worshipful cultists will.take that as proof of political.and antiChristian persecution. Remember these idjits still think they didn’t lose the Civil War (And yes,,I had someone tell me that,, and not a red neck moron either). When Biden wins, I think a redo of 1/6 may very well happen, but this time we will.plan for it, and I expect it to be a lot bloodied and messier.