Hey! Nervous Nellies! Try Actually READING And Then Understanding A Few Polls Before You Do That Face Plant

We have met the enemy, and he is dumb

OK, it’s cool, you guys are safe. I’ve vented my spleen on the namby-pambies and naysayers, and now I’m ready to get back to my day job, mainly providing actual information, with the data to back it up. But take my word for it, it won’t be dry or boring. God knows I’m no Stephen Hawking!

I did something I like to do occasionally, I looked at some actual facts and statistical numbers. And what I found was that despite Traitor Tot’s bluff, bluster and vbullsh*t, and the Moany Myrtles mattress soaking and pillow staining, post debate Trump is in the sh*tter.

We’re going to deal with two different sets of figures, and then dive a little deeper to give them the proper context, and while the Biden-Trump debate wasn’t the unmitigated disaster all of the Biden is too old wussies are claiming. Let’s take them one at a time so I don’t get confused. I know you guys are made of sterner stuff.

First, there’s the post debate polling, which should be a nuclear disaster. Not so. MSNBC’s master stats savant Steve Kornacki, the hands down best thing on political reporting, did a deep dive into post debate polling, and God!, do I appreciate his expertise and excellence in making complex numbers easily comprehensible.

Kornacki cited nine accredited national polls, some registered voters, and some likely voters taken since the debate. And in the results, he found that Trump and Biden were tied in two polls, and Trump led in seven. But as with everything statistical, the devil is in the details. In four of the seven polls, Trump led Biden by 1-2 points, within the margin of error. And in two more polls, Trump led by 4 points, right at the edge of the margin of error. Only in what I still consider the outlier CNN poll, Trump leads Biden by 9 points, which just happens to be exactly the number he led by two months ago.

Simple Fact. After a single bad debate performance Saint Ronald Reagan took a -7 hit in the polls, then went on to bring home the bacon. And in nine separate polls, which could easily have been double digit bumps for Trump, he didn’t move the needle a goddamn inch! Which is just another canary hitting the bottom of the birdcage for the Trump campaign.

Which brings us to the crucial, existential issue of this campaign. Multiple polls, along with both heated political rhetoric as well as standard punditry list this election not as an issue election, nor a referendum on one candidate or the other, but as a binary choice between two polar opposite candidates. And therein lies the seeds of Trump’s destruction.

But not a binary choice like Do I like Captain Kirk, or do I like Captain Picard. Nor is it a Star Wars vs Star Trek confrontation, although those can get as heated as an Irish soccer match. Instead it’s a binary choice between fundamental decency vs unbridled evil. And here’s how that breaks down

• President Biden has been a national, elected lawmaker for longer than about half of my readers have been alive. He’s an honest, sincere, hardworking man with a disarming Irish wit. People want to like him. Like me, no matter how often Grandpa Joe sits in his chair in the living room and says, Hey Mikey! Come over here and pull on my finger!, it’s still cute and disarming. The majority of undecided voters polled or focus grouped after the debate expressed disappointment in the effort, but most chalked it up to a bad night 
• Trump on the other hand is the polar opposite. For anyone not wearing MAGA branded Depends, like the Pampers President, to know Trump s to want to throw him out of an open airplane door. Seeing Trump, even on television immediately invokes the unpleasantness of bumping into your ex at a wedding. In less than 30 seconds, you clearly recall why it was worth every penny it cost you to get her meat hooks off of your throat. During debate focus groups of undecided voters with clickers to show approval, Biden went up and down based on his answers. But every time Trump opened his mouth, his meter slammed down to 0.

Which brings me to a salient point I want to make before we move on. Earlier tonight on MSNBC, former Ohio Representative Tim Ryan made a complete horses ass of himself. Of course Ryan is calling on Biden to back out, but his logic was absurd. Ryan ranted on national television that Biden was so pathetic that he gave Trump a free pass to rewrite history by not fact checking him! He let Trump rewrite his insane tax cuts, he let Trump rewrite Covid, and he let Trump rewrite January 6th!

Bull-f*cking-sh*t! As I showed above, every time Trump opened his fat sewer hole, his graph shot to the bottom of the screen and stayed there for as long as he talked. Tim Ryan and the rest of the couch fainters are full of sh*t. Non Trombie viewers didn’t need Biden to fact check Trump. They were perfectly capable of doing that on their own. 

And now on to the 2nd dead canary for Trump, and this one is actually much worse. Because it doesn’t deal with the vagaries of polling, which can change with the prevailing winds. Instead, this deals with rock solid, incontrovertible voter registration figures. Here’s how it shakes out.

According to the study, right now nationally, 25% of registered voters are aligned as Republicans, 24% are aligned as Democratic voters, and a whopping 51% are registered as independent or unaffiliated. One caveat. The study deals purely with the affiliation of registered voters, not likely voters, so that has to be factored in separately.

Now, let’s be clear, there are a large number of registered Independent voters who are in reality fairly solid Democratic or republican voters who, for whatever reason, don’t want to be officially affiliated with the party. Maybe for the simple reason that they want to avoid all of the bullsh*t texts and e-mails you get if you’re a registered party voter.

But it’s still incredibly bad news for Trump. because among registered GOP voters, there is a solid bloc of Never Trump voters, such as Nikki Haley’s rock solid 18-22% protest vote. They are never going to vote for traitor Tot. You can assume a similar percentage of GOP leaning Independent voters. And in this polarized political climate, it’s that narrow independent and mushy middle bloc is going to make all the difference.

On the other side, as far as any evidence I’ve seen, in either polling or public reporting, despite the best efforts of sob sisters like Katy Tur and Tim Ryan, there is absolutely no Never Biden protest bloc out there. In fact, from what I’ve seen in polling and reporting, the general mood when it comes to Biden is one of ambivalence.

Let me close with this. As I said, this election is a binary choice. And Joe is Joe. He’s as comfortable politically as Mr. Rogers cardigan sweater and slippers. He’s been around for 50 long years now, and any skeletons he had in his closet were buried decades ago. Trump has also been on the scene for some 50 years, but his is a different tale. To know Trump is to not want to know Trump. He is a selfish, self indulgent, narcissistic, racist demagogue who thinks first and only of himself. Like Jim Jones and Charlie Manson, Trump appeals only to a very narrow, sick, twisted part of the population. The Biden going forward is going to be the SOTU Biden, full of piss and vinegar, and itching for the fight. Trump is going to be Trump. That’s all he knows how to be, and he doesn’t hide. If we all rally around decency and competence, we’ll be fine.

I thank you for the privilege of your time.

Support the site with a subscription today and see no more ads!

Go Ad-free Now!