Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp Slept Quite Well Last Night

Let me say at the outset this is speculation.  My opinion, which I’ve mentioned before and have had others disagree with.  However it seems like a good time to get into this again.

Here’s my thesis: Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp went to bed last night humming Hail To the Chief, and had a wonderful night’s sleep filled with dreams of cool Presidential stuff like hanging out with pals in the Oval Office, experiencing the thrill of everyone rising when he walks into a room, hosting fancy state dinners and attending grand diplomatic meetings with allies etc.  When he woke up this morning he just kept quiet about it and has gone about his job.  Right now he wants, needs in fact to stay under the radar BUT the stage is now set.  Trump now faces a gauntlet of criminal trials and will likely be a convicted felon long before the convention.

For all Trump’s bluster, echoed by MAGAs even one conviction will be the ruin of his chances.  You might well disagree but that’s my opinion and I’m sticking to it.  More importantly, as I’ve said Trump’s control of MAGA, the RNC and much of the election apparatus is still firm but the money people, corporate America and most big donors don’t want more Trump chaos.  That so many state GOP Parties are squeezed for cash as are a growing number of Congress Critters indicates the big money people are keeping their checkbooks close until Trump is GONE.  A large chunk of the MAGAs will stick with Trump till the bitter end but more than you think won’t.

So, for some time now and especially since the country has gotten more peeks than they want at DeSantis, the original pick to take over for Trump a successor the old guard has been searching.  For a GOP “savior” who could ride in like a knight in shining armor on a while horse elephant and rescue them.

The problem of course is WHO can ride to the rescue?  Especially since Trump, if forced to step aside only to avoid embarrassment of losing states during the primaries would insist on naming a successor.  None of whom would have a chance.  A look through the list of those who’ve declared their candidacy shows what if one feels like being charitable is a “weak bench.”  Christie is qualified and smart enough but too much baggage and if he gets a crack at Rump live and on TV in a debate(s) Trump will be done righ then and there.  MAGAs, even soft ones won’t forgive him for that because fully exposing Trump means exposing MAGA cultists too.

Mike Pence?  In the last week or so he’s shown signs of trying to grow some spine but it’s too little too late.  He could have and should have made a clean break from Trump right after Trump literally threw him to the MAGAs who would have wound up lynching him and his family had they gotten their hands on them.  But Pence blew his chance, along with the time he might have had to make peace with enough MAGAs to be forgiven enough they’d vote for him in a general election.  Instead of staying home.  Nikki Haley?  Nope.  At one time she might have been nicely positioned for 2028, and even as the “rescue” candidate this year as she’d gotten away from Trump World with relatively little stench.  then she started sucking up to him, perhaps in hopes of being VP.  Who knows?  But she blew her Presidential ambitions the moment she jumped on the Trump train.  Fellow South Carolinian Tim Scott might I think one day make a solid candidate but like Haley he’s got a huge problem.  Not being white.  Plus he’s not experienced enough and he’s no Barack Obama.  Sucking up to Trump will, as with most of the others cost him with independents even if the GOP didn’t have such a racism problem.

After that it’s the usual run of “Who?” candidates that come out of the woodwork when there’s not an incumbent running for re-election.  So for some time now a search has been on for someone to take over the role DeSantis was intended to play.  It became all too apparent even before he formally declared he was a disaster waiting to happen and it’s been as bad (if not worse) that those initial fears a few short months back.

That brings us to the who is out there people.  My biggest fear has always been that despite his age John Kasich would step back into the ring.  It’s pretty clear he’s not going to do so.  NH Gov. Chris Sununu seems to realize that the country has no idea who he is.  That he evokes a “He’s a Governor?  Where?  NH?  You gotta be kidding me!’ type reaction.  Sure, The West Wing had a NH Gov. become President but Sununu is grounded enough to know TV is fantasy land.  In the real world he has no chance.  Maybe someday if he gets national exposure as a  high profile Cabinet member but not now.

Glen Youngkin, current VA Gov. keeps getting mentioned.  Here on PZ Ursula thinks he’s positioning himself and has a shot.  I think maybe he is in fact quietly trying to move to the head of the line, but hasn’t a chance in hell.  He might not be as abrasive as DeSantis but even if it’s BAD charisma DeSantis has some.  Youngkin has none.  Zero,  Even in Virginia, a state I lived in close to twenty years.  Then spent another ten just across the border into WV and got my news from the DC stations.  And now am down in NC less than an hour’s drive (even with stoplights and traffic) from where my ex and her parents lived up over the border.  (I keep up with goings on there as at times I’ve thought about moving back)

Virginian’s aren’t inspired by him and some actually worry about him for a variety of reasons.  Hell, his getting elected was the Virginia version of Trump threading the needle in 2016.  A once in a lifetime series of events combined to sneak him into office.  I won’t go into it all hear but trust me when I tell you he’s got all the charisma of a wet mop, and nationally voters will agree once they get a look at say “This dude’s Gov. of a state like Virginia?  How the hell did THAT happen?”

I saw Mike Pompeo poke his head up just the other day but I think he’s going to wait for 2028.  He might like touting his West Point credentials but just as he dodged the fight in the first Gulf War three decades ago he’ll dodge the fight next year too.  I’m probably overlooking one or more people but that means if they don’t even have enough “whatever” to come to mind now how the hell can they come in and rescue the GOP?

All of which brings me to Kemp.  Yes, MAGAs are mad at him because he didn’t “fire” Fani Willis but he can I believe work past that.  He and Trump aren’t friends, but even though it cost his state actual money and made them look silly nationally he let all the multiple recount stuff play out.  MAGAs are stupid and he might well be able to sell that.  And he KNOWS how to do the old-school GOP talk in code.   Kemp might not evoke “warm fuzzies” in a national campaign but he also doesn’t evoke mockery or even intense dislike like DeSantis.  And if not a lot, he still has a “stage presence” and can project a gravitas that Youngkin can’t.  Some have it naturally and some don’t.  While it can be improved you have to have some of it in the first place and you either have it or you don’t.  As the old “athletics” (track & field) saying goes “you can’t put in what God’s left out.”  Kemp might not be gifted, but compared to Youngkin and DeSantis he’s got quite enough.

Kemp isn’t well known nationally yet, but he’ll get more visibility in the months ahead.  And he doesn’t come across as crazy.  Oh, he’s got baggage to be sure but compared to DeSantis or Youngkin (and Pence) he’ll look pretty good to GOPers next spring as Trump finds himself and his campaign crippled with trials and probably even some felony convictions.

So again I say Brian Kemp is the stalking horse candidate.  And Willis’ indictment of Trump was a necessary step for him to be able to make his way onto the track and meander towards the starting gate.

I say come this time a year from now he’s more likely than not to be the GOP nominee.