Gaetz Threatens – Doesn’t Have The Votes!

It’s mid afternoon out east where I live. I’ve got news on TV and have been checking online and what I’ve been looking for isn’t there. What have I been looking for? Matt Gaetz’s promised motion to Vacate the Chair, which in normal folks like you and me language is formally remove Kevin McCarty as Speaker of the House of Representatives. To take away McCarthy’s “Precious” (the Speaker’s Gavel) if you’ll forgive the Lord of the Rings reference. It’s not like Gaetz hasn’t made the threat before. Hell, by insisting on a single member being able to initiate the process as part of the deal to finally elect McCarthy Speaker in the chaotic beginning of this Congress Gaetz has warned he was able to take Kevin McCarthy out whenever he wanted.

Funny thing though. McCarthy, craven as he is realized somewhere along the line that there are moderates in Districts Biden carried in 2020 who are scared out of their wits about next year. In addition to that, there are quite a few other Republicans who can read tea leaves in the form of election after election starting with 2018 that realize having won by only say five percent or so make them vulnerable next year too. My guess is that McCarthy did some (cue Elmer Fudd) “vwery vwery careful” counting and realized that if push came to shove Gaetz threat was hollow. That’s why he made the deal with President Biden (and the Senate) months ago.

Which he broke by letting his Crazy Freedom Caucus take us to within hours of a shutdown but that’s another story. The point is that ever since Gaetz has been making noises about taking the Gavel from McCarthy. And McCarthy? At times he’s hinted out loud “go ahead and try” but as the shutdown loomed Gaetz warned there’s be hell to pay unless he and his fellow crazies didn’t get their way. THEY wanted a shutdown even before Trump made it clear he wanted one. I can easily imagine Ted Cruz on the other side of the Hill saying (to himself) over and over “Please guys – DO IT! Maybe instead of people talking about my idiocy all those years back they’ll forever talk about you doofuses instead.” Not that we’d have ever learned the actual tally but it would have made for a fun game guessing the number of times in the past month that Gaetz directly threatened McCarthy with some version of “If you don’t shut down the government I and my pals are taking away your Gavel!”

McCarthy I’m starting to believe never intended for the government to shut down but he did milk it to the last moment, and gave the crazies an appalling prize in the form of holding back 6 billion of aid to Ukraine. Maybe as some cover to gain more Republican votes for the CR. However McCarthy I believe knew that just as before if push came to shove Gaetz wouldn’t prevail in an all-out fight. Gaetz on the other hand was sure this time he was in the stronger position. That’s why within hours of the House vote approving the CR and all day yesterday he was everywhere at once talking “BIGLY” about how by god first thing today he was filing a motion to Vacate the Chair. THIS time he promised McCarthy had gone too far so McCarthy himself would be gone, gone GONE. (at least as Speaker)

Yet here we are and no motion to take away McCarthy’s Gavel. Oh, Gaetz is promising we’ll see one, (maybe) “later this week” which for me rings about the same as Trump promising an awesome universal health care plan or something else huge “in a couple of weeks.” So what’s going on? I actually wrote about this yesterday and it’s why I say that for now at least Gaetz doesn’t have the votes to oust McCarthy. Gaetz has problems of his own with fellow House Republicans. He might not be as despised as Cruz is over in the Senate (even other GOPers have hated him with a passion for years) but he’s worked awfully hard to become the House version of Ted Cruz. A lot of us experienced disappointment and even outrage Gaetz didn’t have charges filed against him over paying for sex with underage gals but the House Ethics Committee has kept working on the complaint against him. Word is that if they issue a guilty finding of him then fellow Republicans are itching to immediately move to EXPEL him.

Gaetz of course has to be aware of all this as too many outlets have reported on the matter meaning there are lots of Republicans talking. So maybe now isn’t the time for him to force a whole new Speaker fight!  Unless I miss my guess McCarthy has quietly reminded plenty of Republicans Gaetz is in a weak position. AND how shutdowns have worked out for the GOP in the past. So, plenty of the ninety Republicans who voted for the CR but maybe even others would back him if Gaetz filed his motion to Vacate the Chair. Yes, support from Democrats would be needed and it would come a a price none of them would like but political laws have shifted. Voters, even a year from now won’t have forgotten a shutdown. But they will, as they have in the past rightly punish the GOP for one. Practically speaking Gaetz has to be worried that forcing this fight over the Speaker won’t win him any favors if the Ethics Committee hammers him. (and he might have a source saying things are leaning that way)

I might be full of crap. It wouldn’t be the first time as those of you who read my stuff know. Still, from where I sit most House Republicans want little to do with this whole shutdown business and even less to have to deal with the embarrassing repeat of the spectacle over who will be Speaker. So I could be wrong, and Gaetz will file his motion (or one of his idiot pals will) and McCarthy will be ousted. Perhaps by the end of the week.

However, I don’t think so. Gaetz didn’t have the votes this morning. As more time goes by and there’s more time for rational (and despite what you think lots of Republicans can be coldly rational when it comes to re-election) thinking Gaetz will have even less support than he’s got today.

From where I sit Gaetz is a political “limp dick” hanging off the House GOP the way his home state of FL hangs off the continental U.S. And no amount of political Viagra will help.