I know you guys must hate it when I repeat myself, but guess what? Political news is ever changing. And when it changes, it’s my job to bring it to you, even if it sometimes leads to a little repetition. You have my word, this will be the last time I go here until at least early November.
believe it or not, there were actually two special elections last night, and they couldn’t be more desperate. And between them, they should have alarm bells going on all over the GOP.
The first one was a special election in Pennsylvania for an open state House seat. This is critical due to the razor thin Democratic majority in the PA House. But it also wasn’t much of a mystery. It’s a solid blue district that went +18 for Biden in 2020. No surprise, the Democrat won, but here’s the McGuffin. The 32 year old African American woman won by a whopping +30. That was a Democratic overperformance of +12 on a September special election where the race was the only one on the ballot.
The 2nd one was a special election in New Hampshire, again for an open state House seat. But the dynamics couldn’t be more different. This is a red leaning district in a suburb of Concord, which went +6 for Trump in 2020. But last night the Democratic candidate won the seat +12. That means a +18 swing in a critical swing district. Once again for a one off election in the middle of September.
Please. Do your coronary arteries a favor. Stop hyperventilating over these polls showing Biden and Trump neck-and-neck. Sane people correctly refer to these polls, especially this far out, They catch a moment in time for national, state, or issue feeling in the country, or wherever the poll was taken. But stuff like last night are hard results. People showed up. People voted. And the results were tabulated. It doesn’t get any more real than that.
I have written previously that I ended up accurately predicting the Blue Tsunami in 2018 for a 40 seat flip due largely to the results I saw in the 2017 special and off year elections. While the Democrats didn’t actually flip any seats in special elections, all of which were held in safe red districts, but the Democrats overperformed by an amazing average of +22. More importantly, in the November Virginia off year elections, the Democrats literally came within a coin flip of deadlocking the Virginia House.
And in 2023, the results aren’t much less impressive. If I understand the polling sub tabs correctly, the aggregate averages include special elections like the GOP inspired ballot initiative in Ohio to raise the bar for passing a ballot initiative to amend the state constitution from a simple majority to a 60% supermajority. And in the rolling average, so far this year the Democrats are +12 in the special and off year elections. Not bad, when critical swing districts are mostly decided by +/- 2.5 points.
The reason I swore I would leave you alone about this topic until early November is because that is when Virginia will have their off year elections. And this should be interesting. In 2021, billionaire douchebag Glen Youngkin rode to a GOP victory after a pathetic campaign from Democrat Terry McAuliffe. Per Virginia law, a sitting Governor can’t succeed himself, so Youngkin will be out in 2025.
And so the sniveling Youngkin is slowly and slyly turning MAGA to lay the groundwork for a 2028 GOP presidential run. But fortunately the Democrats kept stoppers in the legislature, and are able to stymie his MAGA impulses. This will be interesting. If the Democrats roll in 2023 in Virginia, it will be a direct repudiation of Trumpism going into 2024. If the GOP retakes the House, that could be a warning sign for Democrats in a purple state.
My personal prediction? The Democrats will roll in Virginia in November, for one simple reason. The numbers don’t lie. In 201y, 2019, 2021, and so far in 2023, Trump’s lunatic base has shown every time that they don’t show up when Traitor Tot isn’t on the ballot, no matter how much the pretenders try to model themselves after Trump. And in the meantime, El Pendejo Presidente and his GOP acolytes keep throwing red meat to the Democrats to show up and shut them down. I see no reason why this year should be any different. If Virginia goes blue in November, start watching for a slew of moderate GOP swing district retirements going into the primaries.