Ian Bremmer is a Stanford educated political scientist and the founder of the Eurasia Group, a political risk management consulting firm that specializes in that part of the world where Saturday’s tempest in a teapot semi-revolt by The Wagner Group and it’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, almost took place.
As has been reported, Prigozian was finally placated by his boss Putin and supposedly will be allowed to settle in exile in Minsk, Belarus under the close tutelage of Putin ally Alexander Lukashenko.
No one has heard a peep from Prigozian since.
Bremmer appeared on CNBC International yesterday to explain why the ex-Wagner leader (ex because the supposed deal he struck with Putin rolls his mercenaries into Russia’s regular Army, which was the issue that led to his mutiny in the first place) may not want to sign any long term leases in beautiful Belarus, at least not leases that can be enforced against what is left of his estate once the master of murder Putin is done with him.
Here is the Bremmer interview on YouTube:
And Bremmer is not alone in his bleak assessment of Prigozian’s future – political commentator and husband of KellyAnne Conway made a bit of a running bit out of it this weekend on Twitter…
Yes, coupaccinos https://t.co/WI64pMztwG
— George Conway (@gtconway3d) June 24, 2023
😂😂😂
He’s looking for an opening, a window of opportunity https://t.co/AwEEYQHAja
— George Conway (@gtconway3d) June 24, 2023
Yup
Wait—you don’t think Putin and Prigozhin worked out their differences through a reasoned discussion based on their shared values of honor, justice, and fairness? https://t.co/a22gxGGvap
— George Conway (@gtconway3d) June 26, 2023
Fat chance.
I apologize for the short diary, I have to get to work now, here’s hoping you all have a better day than Prigozian is likely to…
It’s not going to end well for Prigozhin.
His only real chance would be defecting to a Western country try which would give him.asylum in exchange for spilling everything he knows. Not that that is a 110 guarantee of safety when you realize how many defectors have Bern murdered in the U.K. alone. Still, it’s his best hope.
Prozighin’s stay in Belarus will either be very short or suddenly eternal. I think the former. He and some loyal members of the PMC may be setting up permanent residences right about now in some despotic corner of Africa, far away from Putin’s assassins and the killing fields of occupied Ukraine. That assumes he has the financial resources to do it and has access to aircraft for the egress. Lukashenko will be overjoyed to see him go, one way or another. Juba in South Sudan is currently a boom-town for resource extraction corruption, so it wouldn’t be surprising to learn that Prozighin has gone there, as many of the more adventurous in Wagner group have. However, he could choose a safer place with better amenities, like the Seychelles, where there is a sizable retirement community of former Kremlin crime syndicate bosses.
I suspect Belarus will not be far enough to escape the “falling from a tall building” disease that strikes so many people who get on the wrong side of putie pie.
This – because it comes from an expert – not that they are always right, but the odds are in ther favor:
“Whatever is really going on, this is between Prigozhin and Putin. That is where any dispute will be settled. Minsk is a footnote.”
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100218039228
Ian Bremmer also runs GZero Medi on YouTube, including a feature called “Puppet Regime”:
He must be almost as ambivalent about Putin as cartoonists are about Trump**.
Putin is an insane sadist paranoid snake who is slowly dying (cancer, Parkinsons) but still a snake who can’t be trusted with anything he says. He has undoubtedly already sent his top FSB “musketeers” to assassinate Prigozhin and the rest of the top Wagner leaders besides cutting off all military munitions and cash to the Wagner Group. Nevertheless, The Wagner soldiers were Putin’s best trained and organized fighters, as well as those responsible for much of the torture and rape of Ukrainian civilians and other war crimes. Best we can hope for is for both groups to kill as many of each other as possible so as to further weaken Putin and hopefully have what remains of the Russian army pulling further back out of occupied areas of Ukraine. Even better would be a successful assassination of Putin with a non-FSB/Kremlin backed, less insane, trustworthy leader taking over Russia whose #1 goal is not invasion, murder and conquest of all assets on earth and who is interested in brokering a peace deal.