Don’t Let The Numbers Fool You


I pick up my guitar and okay. Just like yesterday. Then I get on  my knees and pray…We don’t get fooled again!   The Who   Don’t get fooled again

There is no doubt about it, January 6th, 2021 was a seminal moment in American history. Like a clean knife slice, it separated American history into two parts, what was before, and what came after. And the more time that passes, the more some lasting trends start to appear, and consolidate, and those are reported on in terms of the impact of January 6th on those trends.

Here’s a perfect example. You are starting to see more and more reports out there on the effects of the Capitol riot on GOP party affiliation. There is a report out that states that since January 6th, more than 10,000 people in Arizona have drooped their stated GOP affiliation on their official voters registration, mostly changing to independent, ounlisted. There is another report that shows that more than 9,000 registered GOP voters in Colorado have also dropped their party affiliation. And there are more reports like that coming out every day.

This is going to sound strange coming from me. You all know me, and you know that I live and die by the numbers. My mantra is that The numbers don’t lie. And they don’t, But on occasion they can be pretty good bullshit artists. It all depends on how you read them. There are numbers, and then there are numbers. And before you start grabbing a paint brush, and painting a bunch of states blue, you had better be looking at the right numbers.

These reports are actually nothing new. Ever since the 2016 ascendance of His Lowness, official GOP party affiliation on state voter registration has cratered. In 2018 the blue tsunami seemed to bear out what the numbers were showing. But in 2020, 73 million people voted for Trump! WTF?!?

Here’s where you have to parse the numbers. There are actually two completely separate forms of GOP deserters out there. On the one hand, you have what I call the conscientious objectors. They made a purely moral decision. They can no longer accept, justify, or tolerate what the GOP stands for, and so they have walked away. Think Jennifer Horn, Steve Schmidt, Rick Wilson, and David Jolly. They not only left the party, they renounced it. They won’t vote for a GOP candidate until they get their shit together, and actually work against the party.

And on the other hand, you have what I call the craven, cowardly chickenshits. While they personally may not be all that upset with the upheaval or insanity in the GOP, it has become personally or professionally uncomfortable to be associated with a bunch of sexist, racist pricks. And so they go in and physically change their voters registration from GOP to unaffiliated, and this gives them air cover with their friends, family, and associates and coworkers. But when they actually go into the voting booth? Business as usual, and nobody will ever know.

So, there you have it. For the last 5 years, the GOP has been shedding registered voters, but that doesn’t actually mean that they have been shedding GOP voters. As the lead in to the 1940’s classic radio show used to say, Who knows what lurks in the hearts of men? The Shadow knows! Remember, there are numbers, and there are numbers. 1 do the research, and we won’t get fooled again.


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  1. You make an excellent point. So few of these people have had the proverbial scales fall from their eyes and see the truth of how wrong they’ve been to vote Republican that it won’t make much difference unless a given election is razor’s edge close. We know where to find disaffected Republican voters for 2022. The same place we got them in 2018. The only problem is that we might need even more of them since we didn’t do very well at all down ballot last fall and the GOP will be in charge of redistricting (again) for another ten years in some states where we’d hoped to have a say. And they are already hard at work with a whole new round of voter suppression laws. We have our work cut out for us and can’t waste any time preparing to counter what’s coming.

  2. Ah, Murph, I’d really hoped that these registration changes meant something and weren’t just a cruel ploy by repugs to somehow cover their tracks. Always suspicious of them though as they never change their spots.

  3. I believe the lead in to The Shadow said. “Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men?” But I am getting old and spend a lot of time in 1969.

  4. I have always felt guilty because one of my best pejoratives was inappropriate for my gay friends. When all this Republican crap would come down, and I have watched it for 55 years, I would wander around the house mumbling c*cksuckers to myself and to anyone else who would listen. But the word cuck has provided me with an appropriate phrase. I can now call them cucksuckers with little guilt and even more satisfaction.

  5. Yikes. The numbers. Like any fire not put out well, just need a spark… well some fuel to burn again. Now I got to google fires.

    The smart and sane ones have left or are leaving the party. But they got replaced bigly by the looners. But not any crazy craven leader will do. They want the real and ugly deal.

    Guerrilla tactics. Infiltrated the GOP and taken over. Check. Start a new party where the money is controlled “better” by the grand poobah himself in the Patriot Party. A safe harbor and a physical nirvana guarded by true believers. Of course depends on indictments. That would be a signal. To join.

    The USA now has “cells” of wackos on stand by. Ready to vote and cause mayhem.


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