I wrote a column this week noting that the entire Trump “thing,” by which I mean Trump personally and the Qanon-types, were caught up in an unsustainable march to an obvious and sad end. What I did not do is extend the logical conclusion out further, that the GOP, having tied itself to Trump, will suffer the same fate as all who have “worked with Trump.” He will take the GOP down with him. That is not necessarily as good as it might first seem.
To understand the dynamic, it is necessary to revisit some principles that we all “know,” we just may not be utilizing it in our thought process. To confront the issue, one need digest a basic predicate. Dating back to at least Ronald Reagan, and perhaps even Nixon before, the GOP has been “one party” in name only.
The real power behind the GOP is the moneyed-corporate interests that are after low taxes, lax regulatory administration, and saving money by diminishing social support for the poor to free up dollars for corporate welfare. The problem with this platform, other than the obvious, is that it is a platform that serves the interest of 10-20% – at most – of the total population. Tough, in a democracy, to be elected with that portion of the vote.
What to do? Well, first you maximize your money advantage by getting the Supreme Court to decide that “money is speech” through Citizens United. Just as important, you minimize the Democratic vote wherever possible, shameless gerrymandering, as seen in Texas, North Carolina and Michigan, you impose voter ID laws skewed against the poor, and you have the SCOTUS dismantle the Voting Rights Act – a law that just 7 years prior had been “re-upped” by a unanimous Senate.
But, none of that is geared toward getting voters on your side. No, to get the votes needed by the Corporate wing and “normal conservatives,” they make every other issue part of a culture war. Their politicians acted like they cared about guns, that guns equated to freedom. They acted like they believed that scientists and educators were sketchy, not to be believed (but oil companies have a true heart and want what is best for all). They create their own reality, turning a downward trend in migration across the southern border into an invasion by gangs who illegally vote Democratic and get on welfare. And underlying all this is a racial animus that had to be kept somewhat “unspoken,” at least until lately. They needed this culture war since their real platform did nothing to help the day to day lives of someone living on $10/hour.
So that’s the structure. They had their real agenda, the ones who controlled power, the Koch-types, Wall Street and trans-nationals. And they had their “for show” platform. The “for show” platform could be seen in a TV commercial showing young black men with their pants halfway down their ass, a young Hispanic girl in the E.R. to have her baby, a liberal scientist decrying environmental disasters and extolling teaching evolution, the underlying message being: “This is the cause of all your problems. We are against them.”
The plan worked, at least once through every two administrations, and made massive gains in state government, even though the Democrats near always win more total votes for the Senate, the House and have had more votes than the last two Republican presidential wins. (See North Carolina where total vote was 50-50 but Republicans controlled super majority of the legislature and Supreme Court).
Enter Trump.
Trump most certainly would deliver on that anti-tax, anti-administrative platform, absolutely. The trouble for the “real GOP” is that, for the first time, they had a candidate who was dead serious about the culture wars that they only wanted “for show,” not reality. Trump is seen as a “true hero” among the anti-establishment, white working class voter, precisely because he’s delivering on his promise to put the “other agenda” front and center. Meanwhile, the real power in the GOP curses Trump’s name under their breath. The MAGA/Qanon voter sees Trump as the only one with “integrity” because he is actually doing what they’ve always talked about, and in that sense, I suppose they’re right. To make it worse, they are so conditioned to “hate libtards,” while investing massive emotional energy into guns (for godsake), and exhibiting xenophobia, etc. they will suspend all critical thinking when it comes to evaluating Trump. They fundamentally do not see Trump as a con who has sold them a charade. They don’t see or know that Trump is ridiculously uneducated, has lost far more money than he’s earned, that he’s wholly in bed with Russia and its anti-democracy agenda (hell, some are proudly pro-Russia because Russia is anti-libtard), and that Trump lies like the breathes. None of that matters, Trump is going to “drain the swamp,” meaning get rid of all those people standing in his personal way and in the way of that Qanon voter’s life.
Thus it is that the “real GOP,” the moneyed corporate interests, are watching in abject horror as instability now threatens both the government and the economy. They know the bill is coming due. But unlike 2008, they will not be able to take their gains and run this time. Nope. From here on out, the “alt-platform” will be the real platform with the MAGA Qanon Republican voter and it may have to come at the expense of the economy.
The corporate class knows that their interests cannot survive such instability. They are not in favor of trade wars, culture wars and abject incompetence. Yet, now, they see that a substantial portion of their base, a critical number of votes, is out of their control, entirely. That was never the plan. Trump was never the plan. And just as Trump is unsustainable, so too is the GOP from here on out because the voters have tasted true power, and they like it. They are not going back to Mitt Romney, or even a “pre-Trump” Lindsey Graham (who hates Trump deep down, never forget Lindsey’s real feelings on Trump, stated pre-primary, that Trump is xenophobic, incompetent and a boob.)
Meanwhile, the corporate class is never going back to Trump or a Trump-like crusader, outside their control. Having built the monster, they now see it unchained. The corporate class has even lost all the “establishment-types” that they inserted around Trump to keep him tethered to reality, the adults in the room are out on the street. Jim Mattis and John Kelly are not coming back
The corporate class has no real plan for a post-Trump period, and they are staring down economic instability, knowing no one is home to jump in and manage it with any pretense of expertise. They are terrified, which also decreases economic stability.
To the extent that MAGA/Qanon voters see Trump losing in the suburbs, or toting poll numbers in the low 40s going into 2020, the pro-Trump voters either have faith that their proto-deity will come through again, or blame the establishment types and the libtard leftists.
IF 2020 goes as it looks to be going, an economic downturn, and a Trump defeat, along with possible Democratic majorities in both houses, I do not see how the Republican party survives. The Trump-wing will never be satisfied with a non-Trump-type, ever again. And the corporate class will never allow a Trump-like nominee, ever again. It is a matter-anti matter scenario.
So what’s the problem, you say?
The “problem” is that there is a significant portion of that Trump vote that asserts full ownership of this country, the ones who see libtards as their only enemy, and they will not react well. Not every Republican voter fits this broad brush stroke. There are actually some conscientious, good Americans who are conservative only because they think low taxes and loose regulatory rules increases freedom, and wish they could have it working with Democrats. They are uncomfortable with all this. But they are not the ones willing to take to the streets, armed to the teeth, sure that the internationalist libtard leftists have engineered a coup, that they actually won the elections, and their country is being “taken” from them.
It will be very hard to stop the MAGA/Qanon faction should they choose to unleash their full fury. They finally had someone follow-up on what previously been mostly smoke and mirrors, and they relish it. Doubt me? How many of them do you think would object if Trump tried suspending the constitution due to a “national emergency”? What if Trump suspended the 2020 vote because of wholly fictional “irregularities in voter registration”? Or what if Trump suspended Congress and the Supreme Court’s control of him until he can figure out “what the hell is going on here”? Honestly? Among the Trump true believers, it is probably at least 50-50 that they would be more than fine with all of it.
Were that our only problem.
Know this, too. There are many in law enforcement that are far more sympathetic to the Proud Boys than they are to “leftists.” Can we count upon them to do their jobs, should the Trump faction take to the streets? Sure that the “real” citizens have had their nation stolen out from under them?
No, having the real GOP split along these lines is a recipe for danger. There will always be a conservative party. Right now, the conservative party that H.W. Bush and John McCain knew looks like a far better choice (from our viewpoint), but that party is not the one that can get the base out to vote at the levels needed. If the Republican party “splits,” it will not be to become Democrats. Someone from the John McCain wing will assert ownership of “responsible conservatism,” and then fight it out for votes among the Qanon, MAGA crowd. The only sure thing is that the two are never to be wed again.
Need proof? Look at how Mitch McConnell reacted to the #MoscowMitch tag. He knows that Trump is imploding, that the Trump movement is unsustainable, and he most definitely wants to be with the corporate-class in good standing when all this is over. But if #MoscowMitch sticks, he will go down with Trump, linked forever. There will be no crossover among the ranks. He knows it, and likes his money and power.
A reckoning is coming, but it won’t come in the form of massive Democratic wins with two-thirds of the House and Senate. It might not even come with full-control of all three branches. No, the reckoning will come when conservatives of good will look around at the damage wrought, and face down the Qanon, MAGA crowd that hates them just as much as they hate leftists. That crowd, is the one with all the guns, the ones who proudly espouse that the tree of liberty requires bloodshed, the crowd that always believed themselves as the only “real American patriots,” and in some parts is already fixing for a fight (Proud Boys? Trump’s shout -out was not a “one-off.”) Having tasted real power, they’ll never settle for anything less, ever again. The GOP will not survive this.
The corporate-class GOP – and I include those good-willed conservatives within it – had to confront the MAGA/Qanon/Proud Boy wing at some point. They will win, money always does. But it will be very very ugly, lives will be lost. The country might never be the same. The existential identity of this nation is under a threat unlike that seen since the 1850s. A lot of people died settling that matter, temporarily. I mean the matter was temporarily settled, as today’s dynamic has its roots in many of the same issues. The deaths, however, were permanent.
The death of the GOP will be no less so.
The only question left to ask is who loses more. Law enforcement might be sympathetic to the Proud Boys in some quarters but they also like to keep their jobs more, I’d bet. And the former pack of fools have yet to meet a fully coordinated federal response to their lawbreaking freakouts…and they’re STILL losing anyway. Never occurred to these geniuses that there is a reason their spiritual ancestors used hoods. Add Internet and there’s no covering it back up.
As with any movement (and I’ve seen this with my local Indivisible group), there are your hardcores and your casuals. And the latter will always fall away when things get too hard. Give this bunch enough of a show of force and they’ll go off and sulk. Few people are willing to go the suicide route. Oh and f every establishment Republican who ever thought the Tea Party was a good idea.
Which goes a bit to my point – the TEA party part. Rile up the Republican base a lot and it never seems to come to a manageable and good end. Ask Paul Ryan.
Quite right, Jason…I will always say that the Tea Party put all the support Trump needed for the nomination in one place.
The thing I worry about this time is that they’ve never had a leader before who will most definitely encourage them to get riled up (with just enough hedging to dodge full accountability). That’s the difference. Yes, most casual ones will sulk off, but there are way too many who don’t fit that definition, and I worry about the long term ramifications, how many more will fall due to domestic terrorism and if it can ever be put back in the bottle. Probably not while Trump is still able to speak.
Allow me to slightly amend your statement…this crowd has ALWAYS had people to rile them up. It’s just none of them before Trump have been mainstream since the 1960s (unless you want to count David Duke in the 1990s during his Louisiana governor run and I don’t). After he’s gone is when we’ll get the answer to your implied question. Personally, I think they’re going to be every bit as vilified as a group as ghetto blacks were by the 1970s and there will be numerous odious examples of why they should stay vilified that will be analogous to the Weather Underground. The irony that such people who pushed for such vilification of both groups would wind up the same way is not lost on me.
The advise of Ulysses S. Grant in such struggles still holds true. Don’t worry about what the other guy is going to do…we got to worry about what WE’RE going to do.
The Kochs et all are no better (or rational) than the corporations in the Alien & Resident Evil movies – corporations that sought to acquire/develop an ultimate biological weapon that they could use to dominate the world not realizing that life forms have their own innate drive to survive, adapt and grow. Somehow. Even painfully and dangerously as Malcom in Jurassic Park notes.
So, what we have are some powerful & moneyed interests that took an existing infection (racism mixed with Confederates & their sympathizers AND their descendants) and carefully created a mutation. They were sooooo sure they could control their mutated virus at the beginning and even as it showed signs (long before Trump) of further mutations they couldn’t control they refused to take action and turn to eradication. They have created a true biological weapon in the form of the hard core Trump loyalists. No, not all of this group are active members of White Supremacist groups and/or “Nationalists.” However of that 35% (give or take) of hard core Trump loyalists are quite willing to let the 20-25% (my estimate) of the ones who are truly dangerous and willing to engage in old school Klan type activity complete with their own form of murder – use of assault weapons instead of lynching that there is significant danger. As you say it could very well be and perhaps is inevitable our country will never be the same. Worse, it will never be able to recover and at best will be second rate on the world stage.
The “corporation” has created an actual biological weapon in the form of human beings so infused with the twisted beliefs that were so carefully spliced into their DNA (but which evolved into a more virulent strain as I’ve noted) and now are frantically trying to cover their asses. The mutated version has broken out in Democracies outside the United States as well, including in our once staunch ally Great Britain & it also is growing in all of our NATO allies. The power’s that be in the “corporation” harbor no illusions about their chances in a world dominated by China and a resurgent Russia. In authoritarian systems you can only keep your fortune by handing over a large chunk of it to the leader and spending more of it to further the leader’s agenda – and one hint of anything less than submission means a bullet to the back of the head. Unlike Trump these people did pay attention some as they got their world class educations but they refused to either learn or accept the lessons history has to offer.
I for one take little solace in the infighting that’s most assuredly taking place within this small group of elites who thought of themselves as “Masters of the Universe” – infighting that will turn into full blown internecine warfare. Some will no doubt get exactly what they deserve (and it will be an ugly end) but nowhere near enough. Not only that, billions of people born and yet to be born will suffer for their actions including countless millions of our fellow citizens.
I’ve said before and I’ll say again the best we can hope for at this point is to proverbially stop the bleeding and manage the trauma. If successful rehabilitation is possible but hardly assured and the scars will always be visible.
On a related note, I look forward to the Chinese government sucking the Silicon Valley types dry of their intellectual property.
Well, I obviously agree with near all the above, I suppose I made it sound as if I was appearing to make the corporatists sympathetic or less blameworthy, when that wasn’t my intention, but I agree.
I wrote it to address two primary things, the fall of the party itself – as I genuinely think will happen, bc the two sides will not be able to reconcile themselves – and the danger of a deposed Trump egging on his “supporters” until he dies.
I focused upon that as a thesis and wasn’t as specific as you, so I thank you and hope you can see the limited effort I made.
YES YES TY Jason every word and every conclusion becomes our Reality more every day.. and you did it all by not needing to even invoke Trumps true criminal identity.. CUZ Roberts Court says Illegal International Russian and Crime Money is just fine for GOP TO USE and it bought them #EternalEmperor TRUMP.
(That is appellation from @DMRDynamics in his pieces on Trumps Pathological Narcissism..Distorted REALITY of DJT: #EternalEmperor
http://tinyurl.com/ybwdvno9)
The writer is right. The MAGA types all have guns, military guns, and they will use them if threatened or if they feel they are threatened. I grew up with them and they are committed to their “liberty” and will fight to preserve it. I have wondered about who will contain them when they explode for a couple of years now. I’m not sure we can depend on a military fashioned by Trump with leadership changes to reflect “Christian” values. Today’s politicians will have no choice but to support the MAGA and further inflame the situation. Did you think they would just go away and accept election defeat? Not a chance. The problem is, I think they have a good chance of winning the war.
So then, what will they win? There will be nothing for them if the whole thing turns to violence in the streets. It ain’t just the right wing nuts who have guns, there are more than equal numbers on the left or center that can shoot straight. After that, we can all think of Sarajevo. That ain’t a pretty sight to think of. We can only hope then that Mexico will come in and administer our failings.
No, they don’t, Gerald. If that were true, the loners were neither be acting as often as they have of late nor would we be free to call them out as often as we do. See, I grew up with them too and the majority of this minority are better talkers than they are doers. Bullies like them don’t want a fight. They want to beat a victim. Show them a high enough price, they’ll back off. In the meantime, they made the classic mistake as outlined by Sun Tzu: trying to chase after victory after the fighting has started. That never works out.
Powerful, thought-provoking analysis of the conflicting factions in the Repub party, and how they’ve lost control of their platforms. Thank you Jason. I’m equally impressed with the responders. I intend to save this, and read again as many times as it takes to feel I’m half as intelligent as any of you.
So, I read this column a few hours ago & I’ve been thinking about it. I don’t take issue with your hypothesis of a failing GOP not being as fabulous as many of us would hope for it to be. I also believe that getting Trump out of our lives will be ugly & probably violent too.
I’m just a rapidly aging hippie but I was active in the protest movement in the late ’60s & early ’70s. We fought back against racism, police brutality & the draft. We were in the streets & on campuses. It was damn hard and very scary at times but we didn’t settle for the status quo. Trump supporters are in the minority. The GOP is failing because the majority of America isn’t xenophobic, homophobic, misogynistic, bigoted or racist. The majority of us believe the science on climate change. Most Americans think we deserve the standards of living enjoyed by other first-world nations. I hope that if Trump’s supporters turn violent, some of us will stand up to them. I hope that America’s outrage is not confined to social media. If that is all there is, then we are doomed. I’m just an old lady but I pray that the ghosts of the Civil Rights Movement and the anti-war protests can inspire another generation. I have to hope because I have grandchildren.
I worried about including the assessment that this existential crises is the worst since the 1850s, knowing the deep issues opened up in the 50s-60s, assassinations, all that.
I think there might have been more anger and fear in the 50s and 60s.
What I worry about is that the political polarization is the worst since then, and acting as an impediment to governing at all. The times, whether they carry the level of violence and emotional pull, might not be a good analogy bc you’re right, there was more activism and pain, and deaths (Vietnam war). But it didn’t impact the question about whether we even could govern ourselves any longer. I think that is the main question we face today: “Can we govern ourselves.” Keep that in the back of your mind bc Putin’s entire motivation was to decrease faith in democracy worldwide, and I am fighting asking the question, bc then I get to the place he wants us to be.