Breaking GOP Supermajorities A Major 2024 Goal For Democrats

It’s looking more and more like Democrats have finally gotten the proverbial memo. ALL elected offices matter. Winning the WH isn’t enough. Not nearly enough. Nor is winning control of Congress either, even when Democrats also hold the WH. States matter too.

I read something this afternoon that got me actually excited.  You should be too. According to this article in Business Insider it looks like our side is finally trying to match what the GOP has done all my adult life.

This year, Democratic state legislative candidates in key races across the country were buoyed by abortion rights and gun reform, and as 2024 approaches, the organization that works to elect more of the party’s candidates at the state level said it’s ready to keep going.

The article goes on to talk about a memo the DLCC shared with them. It speaks to building on the gains made in 2023 and doing even more in 2024.  Even more specifically it speaks to breaking up GOP legislative super majorities (veto proof) in otherwise competitive states, citing Wisconsin and North Carolina (where I live) that have Democratic Governors.  I strongly encourage you to read. For me the main takeaway is:

“Our work is not over — 2024 promises even more opportunities for building Democratic power and infrastructure in the states,” DLCC president Heather Williams said in a statement. “We have record-level momentum fueling us into the new year, and the DLCC is poised to protect our progress, flip key chambers, and unravel GOP supermajorities.”

“2023 laid the foundation for 2024 to be the year of the states,” she added.

Ok. If you’ve indulged me by reading what I just wrote I thank you for doing so. This is something I’ve been passionate about for a long time. Even since when he became DNC Chair Howard Dean pushed his “50 State Strategy”, and the Party in effect said “nah.” However 2018 showed gave us a preview of what could be possible if we had a sustained, organized and well thought out and funded strategy to, election after election mobilize in every state. I say this because the same organizational effort that the National Party and groups would utilize can also be applied at the state and local level.

I’ve already provided the main point I wanted to make. If you’re busy and want to move on to other things I understand and again want to thank you for your time.

However, I’m excited in a way I haven’t been in a long time. I know the reputation I earned (admittedly with some justification) for talking too much and digging around too much in the weeds. Still, this is important enough I humbly ask for the privilege of a bit more of your time to explain the history of how the GOP got far more power that it should have, and how we have a chance to if not turn the tables at least turn things into a fair fight. Because, as you know on issue after issue the majority of Americans and voters actually agree with US. So, if you’ve read this far I hope you’ll indulge me some more and read on:

Since I first became old enough to vote (almost fifty years ago) Democrats had a tendency to usually get out and vote in Presidential years, but not nearly so much in midterms. “Off year” and special elections or in local elections? Not nearly as much. Meanwhile conservatives showed up. Every single time. It was a major factor (yes, there were others) that allowed the GOP to steadily progress towards gaining large majorities in state houses around the country. Enough to increasingly gerrymander not just state but Congressional maps tilted significantly in their favor. This in turn discouraged Democrats who not only became less inclined to get out and vote (sometimes even for President) but even field candidates in many races.

That led to the GOP attaining legislative “Super Majorities” in some states. As with the effort to pack the courts including SCOTUS with hard core conservatives, the effort to create more and super majorities and warped Congressional District maps was a decades long effort. It was conceived, planned out, funded and executed over time. I want you to think about something and think hard. Be honest with yourself. Maybe YOU didn’t believe it but on election night in 2008 all too many Democrats thought “we’ve done it” and that finally we had gained control, and would keep it and worse we could relax for a bit.

It was a magical night in Grant Park in Chicago. Despite it being November it was a warm night. People there and around the country were ecstatic and the newly declared President Elect gave a moving speech. But he included a warning which sadly went right over way too many people’s heads. He told us the work was far over. He told us there was more and harder work ahead, and that we couldn’t sit back and rest on what we’d just achieved. Better than most he understood the backlash that was coming. He wouldn’t have been the least bit surprised to know that while he was addressing the people in Grant Park and via TV the nation that Mitch McConnell was literally meeting with other top Republicans to start plotting how to ensure he’d be a one-term President.

I also don’t think once sworn in President Obama was surprised at the rise of the so-called Tea Party. Although painted as a “grassroots” movement it was in fact a large, well orchestrated and funded (led largely by the Koch brothers) thing and the goal was breathtaking. Make enough additional gains at the STATE level to create permanent Republican majority. In Congress and numerous state. Again, McConnell and others like the Kochs knew their history, that THEIR voters would show up and in far greater numbers than Democrats in 2010. Back then the GOP still spoke mostly in code but using “Obamacare” as a cudgel they whipped up a wave of white fury over a BLACK dude in the WH and made sweeping gains.

I wouldn’t say Democrats gave up but again let’s be honest. Those who weren’t mad were discouraged. There was finger pointing with some castigating those who mocked the Howard Dean “50 state strategy” and others saying it simply wasn’t realistic and we had to “triage” and focus on what races we could actually have a chance at winning. Worse of all as I noted earlier the “focus on where we have a good shot” strategy meant too many races didn’t even bother to field a Democratic candidate. If you chose to read this and have gotten this far ask yourself this: had adopting Dean’s concept, which would have developed strong organizations in every state including red ones been adopted is there a chance in hell Trump could have “won” in 2016?

I sure as hell don’t think so.

Well, Trump did get into the WH and it was every bit as bad as we feared. Worse in fact. It horrified Democrats of course but Independents and even some (not nearly enough but some) Republicans too. Things were ripe for, with so much energy to mobilize on a large scale for the 2018 midterms. I hate to keep pointing out sad stuff but consider this. I don’t recall the exact numbers but I recall one night Rachel Maddow doing a breakdown on how much of the vote Democrats got in the Congressional midterms in 2018. And how big a Democratic majority in the House it got us. However, it didn’t help as much at the state level and she noted that  using historical norms back before the GOP had mastered gerrymandering and gotten what they did in 2010 we’d have wound up with at lease SEVENTY and perhaps as many as an eighty seat majority in the House!  That’s something that could have and likely would have been solidified in 2020 instead of us losing the seats we did and setting us up for the GOP’s narrowly retaking the House in 2022.

Ok, so the predicted (and for good reason) Red Wave didn’t happen, and for the third cycle in a row Democrats did well in Congressional elections. We also scored mostly victories in special elections and off-year elections. For those who might not know, those states that hold state elections in “off” (odd number years) started doing that for the reason I mentioned earlier. Conservatives ALWAYS showed up and had an easy time voting. Democrats did not, at least nowhere in the same numbers and those that did found obstacles thrown in their way to being able to cast their votes.

Well, some in Democratic leadership started thinking Howard Dean had been right all along. More effort was put into fielding candidates in every election and doing so even in red states. You can’t gerrymander an election for a U.S. Senator or for a Governor after all. So, even in districts where a Republican will win handily Democrats showing up all over matters in the stuff where the WHOLE state vote determines the outcome. However, the effects of what the GOP accomplished have remained. Too many states have gerrymandered GOP super majorities or are close to it. Too close.

For example I moved to NC in 2014. By voter registration the split between Democrats, Republicans and Independents is fairly even. Yet the GOP has enjoyed super majorities most of that time. We broke it last fall only to have a turncoat in a Democratic leaning district connected to Charlotte switch Party affiliation to the GOP. So our Democratic Governor Roy Cooper has been hamstrung much of his tenure. He’ll be completing his second term and can’t run again but as things stand, thanks to the GOP level of control Josh Stein (who will be our nominee to succeed him) will likely be similarly hamstrung.

Here on Politizoom Murfster has more than once noted something about hard-core gerrymandering. To get extreme advantage, especially in a state like mine the Party picking their votes has to create some districts that are closer in voter registration than they would like. That means that IF turnout on our side jumps enough (admittedly by quite a bit) we can grab seats that the GOP had counted on winning. Because their voters always show up and ours don’t.

That’s what we’ve got to do. We’ve got to do it in lots of places. That’s why it warms my heart to see it looks like FINALLY the DNC and other national groups have “gotten the memo” that we need to have quality candidates in EVERY race, all the way down to county and local level. In addition to that we have to work like hell to mobilize voter registration and GOTV drives. And, when we can kick in not just with phone calls, door knocking and son on but if able with donations. AND us regular folks need to hammer our local Democratic Party groups with questions about what’s taking place to do these things. If they aren’t doing enough give them an earful and if you’ve got the time show up and get involved in their meetings in person.

Of course keeping Trump out of the White House matters. But unlikely as it now seems it’s possible President Biden might face someone else. Polls indicate support for Trump might be soft if he’s convicted in court. Should that happen, should the GOP have a sh*t show convention and pick someone else, or should Trump keel over dead due to his poor physical health we simply cannot let the mentality that developed with Hillary Clinton in 2016 set in. You know what I mean. That “Yes, she’s highly qualified and would do a really good or even great job but does it have to be HER” mentality.

We have to fight like hell to get every vote their is to get for Joe Biden. And the same for every Democratic candidate down the ticket. Ask any Democrat living in a GOP gerrymandered state with a GOP super majority and a Democratic Governor how much the situation sucks. It’s not just about DC. It’s about every single state. It’s too much to expect we can flip chambers in states with GOP super majorities or close to it. “Breaking” them means getting multiple seats. To prevent exactly what’s taken place here in NC – a single asshat LYING while running for office who will turn around after the dust settles and switch sides.

Democratic leaders now not only seem to understand that, they are bringing a sense of urgency to getting something done. About freaking time. Now, we need to get behind that effort as rank and file Democrats and collectively get it done.