It’s a shame Gerald Ford died in 2006, because if anybody could empathize with Joe Biden, it would be he. They both succeeded a lunatic Republican rogue president, they both fell on the steps of Air Force One and they both had a major foreign policy debacle achieve its ultimate blow up on their watch, eight months into their terms. They are soul mates.

Alas, Ford isn’t here to put things in context, but Anthony Blinken is doing a good job.

I was hoping Liz Cheney would talk about Daddy and Rumsfeld putting us in Afghanistan, but no such luck. Still, she did provide greater context than most of the GOPers are right now, as they howl for Biden’s head on a pike. And bear in mind that Trump thought it would be a great idea to host the Taliban at Camp David on 9/11, no less.

You know the arguments as well as I do. One side is saying, stay in Afghanistan because to do so will keep Al Qaeda on the run. As it stands now, Al Qaeda, the Islamic State and of course the Taliban are going gangbusters. These are the same groups that made promises under last year’s peace agreement and never kept them, so it’s not like their word is worth much. We are told we should stay in Afghanistan to hold the line and to protect our allies in the region. The argument has merit.

Then on the other side of the argument are the people who say that we should have left when we accomplished our stated goal in going in in the first place, which was to get rid of Bin Laden and bring justice for 9/11. It’s been said that Afghanistan was South Vietnam all over again and the United States was there as an occupying force propping up a government that most people didn’t want anyhow. There is merit to that argument as well. It’s also been said that the Taliban is taking over so quickly because most Afghans support them. Maybe that is true.

One thing is certain: we have known for some time that the minute we left Afghanistan that the government would collapse. We were the only thing keeping it from that.

Then you get into the humanitarian aspect of it. Are we, were we, over there trying to force our values on a part of the world that doesn’t want them, or are we we shamefully and disgracefully abandoning the people of the region?

I have no idea. If I had some magical insight into this, I would be working at the State Department. My only point is that it all had to come tumbling down at some point and it came tumbling down eight months into Joe Biden’s term, like Vietnam came tumbling down eight months into Gerald Ford’s. It’s not Joe Biden’s failure of leadership by any wild stretch of the imagination. That is how it’s being played, because that’s the obvious political shot, but the issue is immensely more complicated. If it wasn’t, we wouldn’t have spent the last twenty years talking about it

 

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14 COMMENTS

    • They’ve never really had government in Afghanistan – it’s a collection of tribes that are about as organized as medieval Germany.

      • Well, that’s not entirely accurate. The country as we know it was formally established in 1919* and managed (somehow) to survive for nearly 6 decades–as a monarchy until 1973, then as a republic which had some struggles but its only President managed to keep all sides, um, content; President Daoud was a committed socialist who’d increased ties to the Soviet Union but he was finding himself opposed by more ardent pro-Soviet forces who felt his version of socialism wasn’t enough for them. It was only after the Marxist faction overthrew Daoud and established a decidedly Marxist state and made serious changes to the country’s entire system that did not set well with the majority of Afghanis living outside Kabul and the other major cities. And it was the conversion of the country into a Marxist state (without calling itself a “Communist” state as the leaders noted the country never had a “Communist Party” so the country couldn’t possibly be a “Communist state”) that led to an insurgency that would eventually turn into the Mujahideen. And that insurgency helped push a, um, “change in leadership” in the Afghan government with the Soviets not appreciating that change which would then lead to the Soviets sending in troops to set up a new government and help prop up the new leaders. With the US seeing a fresh opportunity to counter the Soviets and getting Pakistan to host the new insurgents, that then led to the decade-long “civil war” and the Soviets withdrawing their troops. The Marxist-led government then collapsed with another “civil war” following as the fledgling Taliban movement took the lead and eventually established control of the country–well, as much as any government was able to do. The monarchy understood how to work with the more traditionalist, more religious, rural areas and their traditional leaders (commonly termed “warlords” by the West) while the first Republic and the Marxist governments failed to understand (the Marxists especially worked to bring the rural areas under firm government control). And even the Taliban failed to understand how their policies worked well for MOST of the rural areas but the urban areas had spent decades with relatively liberal policies that were largely “live and let live” (and the Taliban also failed to understand there were large regions of the country that opposed the imposition of Pashtun customs and values over minority groups–which was at the heart of the anti-Taliban rebellion from 1995 to 2001; from what I’ve gotten, the Taliban may be enjoying their control now but they look to repeat their mistakes from before).

        *It had been around for nearly two centuries before that–even being the heart of an empire but as the Russian Empire moved into Central Asia and the British Empire was consolidating power in South Asia (modern India and Pakistan), parts of the empire were lost to the outside powers which eventually guaranteed the country’s continued independent status with Britain assuming a “protector” status without turning Afghanistan into a full-fledged protectorate.

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  3. What to do or not do regarding Afghanistan has been both as simple and simultaneously complicated as that country has been for a thousand years. It is often referred to as a miserable pile of rocks, but it’s actually a whole bunch of small piles of rocks. For the vast majority of it’s people (and again for a thousand or more years) their only concern is the particular pile of rocks around whatever valley or hillside they, their (always large going back generations) family and the other extended families in their little patch occupy and scratch out their living in. A look back through history shows that the only, the ONLY thing that unites a large segment of the population of that country is a foreign power trying to come in and rule. Even then there have been factions, but in general enough differences get set aside for the time it takes to drive out the interloper.

    We never had any more chance of helping the Afghans create a sense of national unity and some forward thinking than anyone else. We MIGHT have attained a positive image in the minds of the populace in the wake of our helping them drive out the Soviets. The problem was that the whole effort was done in a manner to allow for what’s known as plausible deniability. We provided them Soviet style weapons so that their fighters captured or killed by Russians couldn’t point to American/western arms. Even those who helped train the Afghans mostly maintained cover as fellow Arabs. Most people over there simply didn’t know who gave them the means to fight the Soviets to a standstill and finally cause them to give up.

    We had a brief, oh so brief chance to step in at a crucial moment and establish medical clinics and schools (real schools) and do so openly at a time when revered fighters who knew something of the truth could vouch for us as having been the ones who helped drive out the hated Soviets. Old attitudes about the west wouldn’t have died out, but they would have been tempered to a significant degree. Of course, once the USSR left in humiliation the measly few million dollars a year for this very purpose Charlie Wilson fought for was denied. By REPUBLICAN Presidents and rank & file GOP Congress Critters.

    That country is, and has been for centuries as tribal (and small tribes for the most part) as any on the face of the earth. A LOT of small tribes. I could write a great deal more about all this, but the bottom line is that most of that country is made up of people living in a space that wouldn’t even be as large as a typical county in most states who don’t give a fuck about anything other than that small space and the people living in it. Corruption from political and even sometimes religious leaders in cities or other regions is something they grow up KNOWING, believing with every fiber of their being is a given. But as long as no one comes in and tries to change their daily lives which are the very hard lives they grew up expecting to live they don’t think it’s any of their concern. If they are allowed to worship (Islam in their case as you know) and work to scratch out a living they are indifferent to anything else. And again, it’s been bred into them over countless generations that’s what life is and all they can and should expect, as well as the belief that anyone who tries to come in and change things, especially some foreigner or foreign power is an enemy to be resisted with every fiber of their being.

    What has happened is sadly and entirely predictable. The Taliban? It seems incredible but early on they were the good guys. That there were spiritually corrupt (and corrupt in other ways) people that had attained positions of power and influence was a lesson the people there learned too late. But despite what they came to know was the dark side to Taliban power Afghans still see them (with justification) as the ones who can keep the foreigners and western influence out of their country – which again for most means their little valley or hillside.

    A large standing army trained by westerners, sending soldiers far from home to other parts of that country was about as stupid an idea as one can imagine. If ever there was an actual country where you wanted to create and train small local militias and tolerate some harsh leaders it was Afghanistan. But a shitload of small militias that might be called up (if needed) to fight for an area say a hundred miles square might have worked. I emphasize the word “might.”

    I’m going to shut up before this topic gets me any more depressed, but again I’ll say I could go on and on about it. We got into that country to take out the Taliban and capture/kill Bin Laden and his top people. We had our chance at Tora Bora but a bunch of idiot neo-cons had delusions of grandeur about nation building and developing a new “ally” in the region and once we had the people we wanted to kill in a space where we could have done the job we started outsourcing to locals. If Bush & his crew had know the first fucking thing about that country they’d have known an old saying about it – You can’t buy an Afghan’s loyalty but you can rent it for a while.” And if a lot of Afghans were at the time sick of the Taliban and the foreigner who had funded them & wouldn’t have shed a single tear if they all died in a hail of bombs there were just enough who knew the area who were willing to, for the right price smuggle Bin Laden and a few others out to safety.

    Twenty years have gone by paying for that mistake. And there’s no telling for how many decades to come a price will still be paid.

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    • I seem to recall reading back in 2001 that the Taliban had made overtures to the Bush Administration to hand over bin Laden–mainly through back channels and secret deals to “save face” (and retain power)–but the Bushies were having none of it. They’d demanded the Taliban turn over bin Laden PUBLICLY which the Taliban couldn’t/wouldn’t do and so, the US got roped into a war it didn’t need to have been in. (And, just because irony loves GOPers, Bush had hosted a group of Taliban officials while he was Governor of Texas. That had been part of the reason the Taliban had made the initial offer to hand over bin Laden–the Taliban leaders felt they could trust Bush to “do the right thing” and help the Taliban not look like they were betraying the Islamic cause.)

      • I don’t recall such reports but even if the Bush administration was circulating such talk it was nothing but wishful thinking on their part.

        As I said, in the very early stages the Taliban (Talib means student and the plural is Taliban) followed a revered Imam who led an improbable but successful assault on a group of govt. forces that gang-raped and murdered some local women in his area. As news spread he attracted followers and their continued successes (because they were committed to justice and protecting regular folks and the forces they kept defeating were corrupt and not at all courageous against a determined enemy) and they provided peace. Alas, it turned out that as their leader retreated behind the walls of his home as fanatics gained recognition it turned out there would be a dark, very dark side to the Taliban.

        A massive civil war broke out and it was savage. People in many parts of the country were fearful of the Taliban by then but not enough were wiling to fight back except for a handful of groups. One however grew under a charismatic and militarily talented leader and the Northern Alliance was more than a match for the Taliban. Worse from the Taliban’s perspective it had the potential to grow to the point where it could drive them out of power over time.

        Now, Afghans may seem weird to us but honor is important to them and a deal once struck is stuck to because the consequences of breaking it are so severe. Bin Laden and his band of followers weren’t really all that welcome in the country which as I’ve said is tribal as hell and distrustful of outsiders. Even the Taliban only worked with them because of the money and training Bin Laden provided. But with the Taliban in control of the country and prior to 9/11 Bin Laden secured his position with the Taliban government in control of the bulk of the country including the cities.

        In exchange for assassinating the leader of the Northern Alliance Bin Laden and Al Queeda would receive permanent safe haven in Afghanistan courtesy of the Taliban. It was too good a deal for the Taliban to pass up and so it happened shortly before the 9/11 attacks.

        Predictably we and other countries demanded the Taliban govt. in Afghanistan to give up Bin Laden and the others. However, the “code” meant they could not do so. The Taliban would have lost all credibility with the people in the country had they gone back on their word, so it came down to war.

        IF anyone in the govt. of Afghanistan at the time gave any indications that maybe something could be worked out it was bullshit – a delaying tactic to buy time. But Bush and his people, like most westerners didn’t know (and still don’t) jack about that country, its people and traditions and had none of the humility to accept that maybe they should take the time to learn at least some basic stuff.

        As with the rest of the middle east. Bush 43 thought all people in that part of the world thought like the leaders and “oil kings” and executives and never could accept that the values of the vast majority of the people in those places was very, VERY different.

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  6. The late, great Marriner Eccles (Fed Chairman in the FDR Administration) stated, “ How do we get the money to pay for war? With paying for roads, libraries, and post offices, you have at least something to show for it. With war all you get is death, destruction, wounded veterans, and wastage. And that’s all you get from war, is wastage.”

  7. I shall always see Afghanistan and Iraq as “two Vietnams for the price of one.” The only winning move was never to go in. Given the systemic dysfunction that riddled the whole enterprise, this was always a long time coming.

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