I have long thought that there was something palsied about the national 2022 election polls, which all of you who suffer through reading me know. But that was just something I felt was off. And in this business, if you don’t have empirical proof, then you’re just full of shit.
But now it appears that I might have found a little empirical evidence. OK, maybe not me specifically, but a trusted source. Earlier tonight on All In With Chris Hayes on MSNBC, Chris had an independent pollster and political analyst by the last name of Rosenberg. I apologize I didn’t get the first name, but I was typing an article at the time. But when he started speaking, I stopped typing and listened with both hearing aid ears.
What Rosenberg issued to Chris Hayes was a warning. He was fearful that the national polling on the critical Senate and gubernatorial races was severely palsied, and inaccurate. And had analysis to back him up.Mr Rosenberg said that in studying the most recent national polls, the ones used by organizations like The Cook Report and 538 was a serious problem.
The problem is that in 6 out of the last 8 national polls used by national national polling organizations for their research were funded by and undertaken by GOP organizations. And his analysis of their polling pool, as well as the questions they asked qwew heavily skewed in the GOP’s favor.
There’s the nub I’ve been looking for. The GOP is in deep shit going into next Tuesday. So of course, being the GOP they’re trying to rig the scales to make themselves look better. And so, at the last moment, they’re trying to gloom the polls with positive news for their candidates. Let local candidates tout skewed polls showing how well they’re doing, when the reality is something far different.
The warning has been sounded. The GOP is trying to rig the national polling numbers for their candidates just as they try to rig everything else. They’re manipulating the numbers in order to gin up their voters to come out and vote on election day, since Traitor Tot swore them off of voting early.
Vote. That’s it, just vote. The polls you’re seeing in the national media may well have no relevance to traditional reality. Since their messaging can’t propel mainstreamvoetrs, they’re purposely trying to skew the polls in order to motivate their voters. How Trumpian can you get? Don’t touch that dial.
If this is correct, and Democrats turn out like we hope (and so many of us are trying to make happen) a lot of people will have egg on their faces. But I’ll say something again that I said yesterday – WTF is the deal with Cook and 538? I get their approach, that of combining polls to get an average and in theory it’s a sound one. But, and this is the crux of the matter don’t they demand the polls they use provide their data (both raw and finished) and methodology to ensure standard, respected polling practices have been utilized? If not, from where I sit they’ve got some SERIOUS explaining to do, because the effect could be exactly what you indicate the GOP is hoping for – discouraged Democrats not bothering to vote. Kind of makes me wonder if big GOP money isn’t just paying for those skewed polls that are skewing the numbers hasn’t also infected Cook and 538.
Oh, no need to go that far, Denis. Bill Palmer pointed out how poll aggregators like that can’t really afford to throw out any polls that have a sheen of respectability about it. Taint the data, the results follow suit. It’s the difference between throwing chaff at an incoming missile and sabotaging the missile itself.
But you know, we should take comfort from this collective refusal to face reality. The Kansas abortion amendment vote, which was rigged to have the most favorable circumstances for its passage possible, should have been a warning to them. Now that the loud, proud and stupid have seized the bullhorn from the more traditional (read: better at lying about their true agenda) GOP, they’re attempting old tactics in the expectation that things will play out like they would have pre-Trump. It’s not that world anymore.
As Bill Palmer pointed out, this is also about keeping political consultants employed a little longer. By saying a race is “rigged”, they have the perfect out in saying why their candidate’s inevitable defeat wasn’t ACTUALLY the consultant’s fault. It’s as much a grift as Trump’s more obvious schemes because I’ve a feeling the forthcoming Liz Cheney takeover is going to ruin many job prospects for them.
It’s no accident that so many races have “tightened, too-close-to-call, neck-and-neck,” etc. If the actual results differ from the polls, then it’s “within the margin of error.” And if the the poll is really off, then the election is “obviously” rigged. Thus, the scam continues into the next election. I’ve stopped looking at polls completely.
Yes Karen and I’ll bet you’re happier for it Remember the dude who said Poles are for dogs.
I prefer a variation on Mark Twain – there are lies, there are damn lies and then there are opinion polls
Who in the hell pays attention to polls anymore? As the last few election cycles have shown, they are worthless. You might as well close your eyes, stick your finger up your ass, and use the smell to gauge the likelihood of one candidate winning over another. For one thing, H.O.R. districts are so gerrymandered, it doesn’t even make sense to poll. Statewide races have so many variables involved JUST in whether people even decide to vote so forget about the rest of the crap that makes no difference.
I’ve come to the conclusion polling firms stick their fingers up the asses that give them the answers they want which, hard to believe, coincide with the wishes of the people paying them. And NONE of the polling firms are completely independent.
Skewing the poles will also convince the GQPs they are going to win and when they don’t we will get the next big LIE – – another stolen election and maybe coup, version: J6,2022.
What I’ve been saying all along. GOP is up to something. You got all these national news places singing gop, gop. Oh other party always wins. I remember before 2020 it was trump wins. The it turns out old sleepy Joe beats him like a drum in a landslide that no one seen coming. You all need to remember, it ain’t over till the fat lady sings. I get Kansas cable feed. There’s been steady democrats campaigning ads. But up until now zip out of gop. This week they backed the dump truck up and let er rip. Saturation. Why? I think they see the same thing as you Murf. The poles are telling them they are toast unless I’m missing something. In 2020 we were going to have a red wave. Well it turned into purple with definite blue tint. And they had credible candidates. This time they have trump schills. But it ain’t over till she sings.