I found this interesting when I heard it, so I thought I’d share it with you. By now you know my both obsession with, and cautionary tales for polling. Simply because there are always kinks and variations that pop up and have to be dealt with. And now we have one.
You’d think that the Democrats should be riding high in the swing states of Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina right now. In Nevada incumbent Senator Jacky Rosen is +6 over carpetbagger Sam Brown. In Arizona House representative Ruben Gallego is +7 over recalcitrant election denier Kari Lake. And in North Carolina Democrat gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein is +8 over the Black Nazi Marc Robinson.
With those kinds of numbers you would normally think two things. First, Kamala Harris is On Golden Pond in those states, and if Harris carries North Carolina, which I’m almost sure she will, then Trump is toast.
But polling isn’t showing the love. In the last polls I saw, Harris was only +2 in NV, -2 in AZ, and dead even in NC. The positive spin on this is that, taking into account the performance of the two Senate candidates and the gubernatorial candidate, Harris has plenty of room to grow in those states. But the question still begs itself, how is this possible?
It’s actually very simple. The time-honored tradition of vote splitting. It appears that in those notorious swing states, GOP voters are jettisoning the truly pathetic GOP candidates for senate and Governor, and still preparing to cast their votes for Traitor Tot. Which seems like an insurmountable obstacle for Team Harris. But it’s not.
There are still 40 days left, and at least two different approaches to close the gap. First there’s the age-old tactic of linkage. Trump endorsed Lake in AZ in her 2022 run for Governor, and repeatedly campaigned with her. He has also endorsed her for her Senate run in 2024. Lake has tried softening her sharp election denial edges, but it isn’t working. The Democrats need to start airing both puff pieces for Harris as well as withering attack ads lashing Trump and Lake together at the hip.
Nevada is a bit more difficult. Trump has endorsed the Texas carpetbagger Sam Brown, but he’s mostly an unknown quantity. Even more so since he has almost no advertising up in the state and is getting clobbered by Democratic Super PAC ads. But Harris has a secret weapon in her pocket. The endorsement of the Service Employees International Union.
The SEIU covers waiters and waitresses, bartenders, bag hops, check in clerks and room service maids in hotels, casinos, and restaurants. And all you need to know about the SEIU is that they’re so strong that Hotel-Casinos in Vegas and Reno is that not only do these establishments provide on-site polling places, they also provide their employees with paid time off to vote.
North Carolina should be an easier rope to pull. Seeing Mark Robinson as an over-the-top, racist, sexist Black Nazi, El Pendejo ex Presidente has embraced him in a full body bunny hug. Not only has he appeared onstage with him repeatedly, but in separate rallies he has referred to Robinson as Martin Luther King on steroids, and also as Martin Luther King X2. There are already billboards going up all over North Carolina highlighting the Trump-Robinson connection, and I’m sure that the upcoming Democratic Super PAC ads will be withering.
It’s a political balancing act. First, marry Trump to these candidates with a preacher and a full wedding reception, then get Harris in there, in person and with positive political ads drawing the distinctions between herself and these inbred sexist, racist douche bags.
But here’s the McGuffin, and it should be enough to turn the tide. As with most national elections, especially close ones, it’s all going to come down to turnout. And that’s where it all falls apart for the GOP. For while the Democrats have almost as many volunteers as there are phones to man, and doors to knock on to energize and bring out the vote, the GOP doesn’t have a single state with a functional GOTV operation. As with so many things, The Devil is in the details. And Traitor Tot is a big picture man.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
I sure hope you’re right.
It does ring true though, doesn’t it, and no-one on our side is going to be sitting this one out like they did with Ms Clinton.
“It’s actually very simple. The time-honored tradition of vote splitting. It appears that in those notorious swing states, GOP voters are jettisoning the truly pathetic GOP candidates for senate and Governor, and still preparing to cast their votes for Traitor Tot.”
Murf, I appreciate your insight and commentary but this LITERALLY makes NO sense. Trump is as bad as (and, one could make a reasonable argument that he’s worse than) all those swing state GOPers who are trailing so badly. Why on earth would someone who thinks Kari Lake or Marc Robinson is too (whatever–extreme/toxic/???) to vote for turn around and think Trump is more “reasonable” or a better candidate in ANY regard?
If anything, Trump should be trailing by similar numbers in all those states–not “even,” much less “ahead.”
There is SOMETHING missing in the equation. I have no idea what but there is something missing.
100% agree with you on this Joseph. It just doesn’t pass the smell test (or logic test if you prefer).
The GOP doesn’t have a single state with a Functional GOTV Operation. That’s because the RW are Planning another Steal/Coup by denying/tossing/jerry-rigging LW Votes at Red Polling Sites. This is what I have read on Liberal/Democrat Websites. Trump has TOLD us, he doesn’t need Votes to win, he is that confident, he’s going to win.