You know, the old October Surprise ain’t what it used to be. The saying is decades old, going back to the days when everybody voted on election day. It stood for a late October revelation which could upset the balance of a race or election. Today there are already somewhere around 18+ million votes already cast, nothing can change that.
That doesn’t mean it’s disappeared. Hell, as recently as 2016, FBI Director James Comey’s dunderhead announcement of reopening his investigation into Hillary’s emails is widely blamed for being the nail in her electoral coffin. If there are votes to be cast, then there are minds to be changed. Even if it only means making them stay at home instead of voting.
If you’re a GOP candidate right now, especially in the Senate, you’ve got to be rolling your eyes, and wondering what ancient Incan God you pissed off. After pissing away the spring and summer screaming about everything but the economy and gas prices, they finally discover message discipline, although it be bad message discipline, and focus on the economy as a way to avoid talking about abortion. But they already missed the bus.
While feckless GOP candidates are running for cover while shoes drop on their pointy heads, in the last 346 hours the Democrats have had 2 golden pennies from heaven fall into their hands. Biden is already shining up and showing off the first penny, and any smart Democrats who want to be elected will do the same. The 2nd one will have to be handled carefully, but fortunately it doesn’t require much explanation or spin to make its point.
First shiny penny from heaven. The classic definition of a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of GDP contraction with rising inflation. That happened in the 1st 6 months of this year, and the GOP pounced on it like a wino with a bottle of muscatel. Problem is, nothing else matched a recession. The economy was still creating jobs, unemployment was at historic lows, and wages were still rising. Still, the GOP ran with the ball, even if it was deflated.
Yesterday the 3rd quarter GDP report came out, and it was popcorn for the Democrats soul. Not only didn’t the GDP contract in the 3rd quarter, it rose by a healthy 2.6%. And as Popiel used to say, But wait! There’s more! New home prices went down, which may well spur new home purchases, putting money back into the economy. And the Inflation section of the report indicated that inflation had stalled, and that in several categories, prices were actually coming down. Biden properly took a victory lap that this report is proof that the administrations handling of inflation has been effective, and according to the report, the economy may well actually be heading for an almost miraculous soft landing. The worst thing about the report is that it didn’t come out 2 weeks ago, before early voting started. Still, in the last 11 days, it’s possible for the Democrats to actually run on the economy again.
The 2nd golden penny is tarnished, because the act was cowardly and despicable. At 2:30 this morning, a far right lunatic with a history of spewing out Trumpist and Q-Anon theories online, broke into Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s home and beat her 82 year old husband Paul with a hammer, while yelling Where is Nancy?, even after the police arrived, cracking his skull. Fortunately Pelosi’s doctors are optimistic for a full recovery.
The GOP response to the news was the widely expected dichotomy. From allegedly responsible Republicans in leadership like Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy decried the assault, denounced the violence, and sent prayers and wishes to the Pelosi family. From the neo-Nazi wing of the party, people like Laborious MTG, Lauren Boebert, and Paul Gosar, there were the expected crickets. And world class douche nozzle, GOP Governor Glen Youngkin even found a way to reference the assault in a stump speech, and turn it into a lame ass political joke. Sweet Jesus! Even Andrew fucking Dice Clay has more class than this shitheel.
This penny is a twin edged sword for the Democrats. The one thing they can’t do is to be seen as using this tragedy to score political points. Fortunately they don’t have to take that risk. They don’t even have to make a reference to the GOP. All a Democrat has to say on the trail or in a speech is, It’s a sad commentary on our current political rhetoric when some people holding elective office are not only comfortable, but enthusiastic about calling for physical violence against members of congress, their families, and even non partisan poll workers. Ir won’t take most voters who don’t have MAGA sheets on their beds to realize that there are no Democrats who have espoused political violence as an means to an end.
The 2nd penny has the potential to be more effective, even if the Democrats don’t say much of anything. Because polling has shown that there is a margin of borderline GOP voters out there that were appearing to be ready to hold their noses, go into the booth and vote GOP. But does news of a rabid far right Q-Anon maniac attacking an innocent 82 year old man in his bed at 2:30 in the morning make them decide Include me OUT, and just stay at home on election day and watch reruns of Monster Truck Rallies instead?
Look, I’m not cold and dispassionate here, I’m just trying to follow facts. Personally, I wish the GDP had come out 2 weeks ago when the Democrats could have made more hay of it. And equally personally, I wish this brain dead retard had never broken into Paul Pelosi’s house and basked him in the head. But this world Is what it is. And real world events can have political consequences. I prefer to channel my personal outrage into a more analytical reading rather than ranting and raving.
Having worked in several traumatic brain injury programs, there is no way an 82 year old man makes a “full recovery!” from a “cracked skull” from hammer blows. There will be residual deficits. I’ve seen much younger people’s lives changed from parking lot accidents banging their head against the windshield. The range covers the gambit from physical deficits to memory issues etc. This event will change his life and hers also. People always believe we are more physically resilient than what is actually the case, especially concerning our gelatinous brain in a boney skull. TV & movies are make believe. Fact. There are no John wicks in the world. They are either fiction, in rehab, or dead. The Pelosi family needs all our prayers, but more importantly the justice department needs to get off their ass and stop Trump and ALL his foot soliders. Stop hiding behind memos, tradition, etc., and arrest Trump today. If not, there will be a rising body count. If not…what the fuck is the purpose of having laws? To protect the rich white power brokers? OK. Then shut the fuck up about “equal justice under the law”. Just admit we’re a nation of peasants that has a cabal of ‘kings’. Meanwhile over 2 million of our citizens sit in jail for MUCH MUCH less, many on laws that have no rational justification. Fact.
To say nothing Scott of the fear an 82 year old man would experience under such an attack!
To the MAGAts ,the attempted murderer is a hero,,taking down a,woman who, in their opinion, should even be allowed to vote.