In the polls, that is. We know polls are a mishmash of conditions that capture one moment in time, yes. But this one is worth savoring. Couldn’t have happened to a nastier person except for Ken Paxton. Kenny Boy seems to be dropping further behind James Talarico day by day. And they were both Trump picks. Who’s sorry now, guys?
Trump is Toxic. Paxton is trying his best to back away, but that big splash when he won the primary probably did him more harm than good. Abbott is a Trump pick by association since he shoved that gerrymander through. Actually, Abbott *is* a Trump pick. With a 10-point shift toward Democrats, he might have to reconsider. But Texas doesn’t have term limits for governor, so he can always try again (although he might think better of it and just retire *IF* he loses).
The swing towards a Democrat is almost unthinkable in this state. They’ve been pretty much solidly red for about forever. We can’t take our leads for granted. But we can expect Hinojosa (governor) and Talarico (Senate) to know that. No one can rest on their laurels for one good poll, because it’s just one, only one. If it holds up, we might have a real ray of hope. If. That’s a frustrating word, but then we didn’t think much of our chances against Abbott, and look where we are now.
This isn’t the only place with Republican issues. With gratitude for Raw Story:
Other races moved the same way. In Alaska’s Senate race, Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan led by 2 in June, and now Democrat Mary Peltola leads by 7. In Iowa’s governor’s race, Democrat Rob Sand went from a 2-point lead to an 11-point lead. In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown erased a 3-point deficit against Sen. Jon Husted and now leads by 3. “This is wild,” writer and podcast host Molly Jong-Fast wrote while sharing the chart.
But talking about Governor Abbott:
Daniele Angrisani, an Italian journalist who founded the U.S. politics site Focus America, said a loss for Abbott would mean far more than a typical bad night for Republicans. “If Abbott, one of the most powerful and prominent Republican governors in the United States, were truly to lose the reelection challenge against Hinojosa, it wouldn’t just be a blue wave anymore,” he wrote in Italian. “But a full-blown devastating tsunami for the Republicans.”
It very much would be a tsunami. And that’s something we can quietly hold on to hope for. But in the meantime, Abbott has a fight on his hands for his gubernatorial run. We already know Paxton is in trouble. He shows no signs of being a good senatorial prospect. After pushing through that gerrymander, Abbott may have lost the people whose areas got changed. This is the one where Texas Democrats fled the state to break a legislative quorum. It’s regrettable and unavoidable that they had to come back, and they were treated like dirt.
Well, color me embarrassed. Just found this out. It’s amazing what Google will tell you. Voting rights groups and Democrats quickly sued [after the gerrymander was signed into law], and in November 2025, a federal three-judge panel blocked the new map, ruling it an illegal racial gerrymander. Gov. Abbott and the State of Texas appealed the decision to the U.S. Supreme Court.
There’s less of a chance SCOTUS will hear this than one expects. They’re refusing some requests. Trump tried to appeal his $5 million payment to E. Jean Carroll, and they refused. It would be too much to hope that they will act like a court instead of a lapdog, with the exception of the three liberal judges, of course. We would be quite happy for them to refuse to take this one too.
A blue tsunami seems to be brewing in America. Trump and Republicans have done a lot of wrong, and also a lot of nothing, and it appears America has had quite enough of that. The fact that two races in Texas have Democrats leading is a sign. We can be happy for them, and happy for Democrats leading in other red states, but it’s only one poll. Instead, let’s hope the next poll continues this to make it almost a trend. Hope seems to be the word of the night.
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