You would think Trump, who fancies himself as ‘Mr. Art of the Deal’ would jump at a chance to get two things for the price of one. A ‘twofer’ so to speak as defined in the dictionary. Another dictionary definition is satisfying two needs simultaneously with the same action. Trump and the GOP need something to help them navigate strong headwinds as the midterms approach. Trump also needs to find an off-ramp to the disastrous war he started with Iran. Making a big show of firing Hegseth (and his sidekick/Pentagon mouthpiece Sean Parnell) could be just the thing Trump needs.
I’ll get to why I believe this in a second, but first want to say the odds of Trump looking coldly and practically at both of these problems (for him personally and for his Party) of doing what I just suggested are between slim and none. Closer to none in fact. It’s been noted how little turnover there has been in Trump’s second administration compared to his first one. In term 1 it reached embarrassing levels. Trump no doubt wanted to avoid that. He also complained about a “deep state” and this time made sure to pick unqualified idiots who wouldn’t stand up to him even if they had enough sense to realize they should.
Trump did in fact get embarrassed enough that a handful of people have been tossed aside in his second term but Hegseth has remained despite causing Trump no end of bad PR and headaches. Still, it’s been speculated that Trump has had enough of Petey Boy and if the GOP takes a bloodbath in November his neck will be first on the chopping block. Well, we’ll see but I’m not holding my breath.
For now however even a significant number of elected Republicans (especially Senators) want Hegseth GONE. That brings me to the first benefit Trump could reap from throwing Hegesth under the bus. Or aircraft carrier (keel-hauling on an aircraft carrier would be appropriate!) It’s not just the badly fought war that Hegseth was so eager to advocate to his boss, the boat strikes haven’t played as well with either the public or a lot of GOP politicians. There are also increasing worries about his ‘makeover’ of our armed forces into his own image. Image is the key here because Pete was never an infantry platoon leader or company commander on the front lines in combat zones.
Hegseth has fired or forced out almost all the former leadership who got where they were via merit. Decades of experience including in most cases actual combat leadership. To say it’s created dissension and moral problems is an understatement. We had the best military in the world and Petey Boy wanted to use it in a war. He got his wish and the forces he remade the way he thought they should be have been ground down. So have our munitions stockpiles and Iran isn’t the only trouble spot in the world. Even many Republicans both elected and regular folks realize Iran has not only NOT worked out the way Team Trump promised, we have degraded our military capability.
I could write an entire article about Hegseth’s management and his inserting himself into things a SecDef should stay out of (promotions for example) but the point is that even many MAGAs know Hegseth isn’t getting the job done. And never has. His antics make even them wonder what the hell Trump saw in him. Independent voters who will play a crucial role in the battle for control of Congress have reason to vote for Democrats based on Hegseth still being SecDef! That’s why dumping him (and again, his partner Parnell) would reassure them. MAGAs angry about Hegseth’s role in getting us into a foreign war and are planning to sit out the midterms might get energized again.
News that Trump went off on Hegseth in a WTF? manner at the Camp David pow-wow this summer got everyone’s attention. Trumpty wasn’t happy when he finally learned and couldn’t deny that Hegseth had been blowing sunshine up his butt on both the ‘success’ in the Gulf or our ability to keep shooting off hugely expensive armaments (both offensive and defensive) the way we’d been doing. Petey Boy has been on pretty thin ice since then. Then we learned that when Army Secretary Dan Driscoll abruptly submitted his resignation he gave Trump an earful in a face-to-face meeting. Trump was reportedly stunned. He also begged Driscoll to stay – at least until after the midterms.
We don’t know what Driscoll said but it got through to Trump. What we do in fact know is that Hegesth saw Driscoll (a big pal of VP Vance) who was widely regarded as far more capable as a good candidate to replace Hegseth. So, he and Parnell have been working furiously to force Driscoll out. Again, more than a couple of GOP Senators have spoken up about this and it’s clear they wish Trump had fired Hegseth and put Driscoll in charge at the Pentagon. (Even Democrats would be likely to go along without much fuss) Given all this it’s clear Trump, and by extension the GOP would benefit from Trump firing Hegseth.
There’s a second benefit. Trump desperately needs an off-ramp to the Iran War. It would take some serious diplomatic work to be sure (and Rubio has gutted the State Dept.) but making a show of firing Hegseth (and Parnell who won’t STFU) would send a signal to Iran that Trump doesn’t like how things played out. AND that he wants to change the dynamic, starting with getting rid of the person in his administration who most strongly pushed for the war. Everyone including Iran knows Trump always claims all the credit and always blames others for when things go badly.
Backchannel discussions that opened with a clear message that Trump felt he got duped by Petey Boy and wants to work out a settlement of the war that both we and Iran can live with might be enough to kick-start meaningful negotiations. It’s not like things were hunky-dory when the war started. However Iran will wind up benefitting more than the U.S. when the dust settles. Having crossed the line of closing the Strait of Hormuz and seeing they could do so with far less consequences than everyone had assumed they have every reason to want to work out a peace agreement. A nuclear deal (on limiting uranium enrichment and research complete with inspectors having full access again) in return for a toll of some sort to allow ships to pass through the Strait is what will end this.
However Trump first has to convince Iran of two things. First, he got bad advice from Hegseth and wishes he’d never listened to him. That would I truly believe actually be true and Iran would believe it too. Second, if Parnell were tossed under the bus too it would tone down the rhetoric. Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader would still shoot off their mouths but behind the scenes all that blowhard crap wouldn’t matter much.
My point however is that a public image/political flogging of Hegseth could be the off-ramp Trump needs to get another quick cease-fire agreement in place. Quickly nominating a sane, normal (more or less) SecDef who Iran could (sort of) trust not to go off on a tangent and toss turds into the punchbowl would give both countries the breathing room needed to put an end to this war. More importantly in the moment being able to announce another cease fire, and one that had an actual chance of holding up (with no Hegseth) would give Trump and the GOP something good they can use in what is going to be a tough (for them) campaign.
That folks is why I say firing Hegseth could give Trump a twofer. Two birds with one stone. Or say two political shots in the arm with one Hegesth firing!
Unfortunately I don’t see Trump doing it. It’s not just that he doesn’t want criticism, even ridicule for putting Hegesth at the Pentagon in the first place. No, this goes beyond Trumpy admitting he made a HUGE mistake. When you look at the big picture Trump went out of his way to name unqualified idiots to a lot of key positions. He had four years to think about how having competent people in top jobs kept him from getting away with what he wanted to do. Oh, they served him well for the most part but even Biliruben Barr reined Trump in a little bit. This time around he wanted to make sure no one would tell him no. Or, if they did they’d accept it and continue to suck up to him and help him carry out his wishes – looking at YOU Susie Wiles.
Doing something rational like so many Republicans (again, especially Senators) want Trump to do, firing Hegseth and naming someone like Driscoll to replace him would mean someone who not only would tell him things he doesn’t want to hear, but keep him from getting away with all the bullshit.
So there you have it. What Trump could gain by a rare display of common sense, and why common sense will in the end lose to batsh!t Trumpian insanity.
Fire Hegsdeath? Nope. 47’s job, for Vlad, is to weaken all our institutions as much as possible. It’s happening. FBI – check. DOJ – check. DOD – check. FDA – check and on and on and on it goes. If we don’t win a blue wave in November, and it’s not stopped by 47 in some nefarious, illegal way………the hurt is going to go deeper. All the while 47 is making bookoo buckos on Venezuelan oil (tar) that takes 5 years to refine to be used unless they put it in asphalt! And he’s making so much more on our effing backs. I could swear and say a whole lot more.
A class move but, as you write, probably beyond T. IF indeed he went for it, everything would still fall apart because of his inability to STFU at sensitive issues/times
“However Trump first has to convince Iran of two things. First, he got bad advice from Hegseth and wishes he’d never listened to him. That would I truly believe actually be true and Iran would believe it too.”
Oh, no. You are so far from being correct that if “correct” were a star, we’d still be waiting at least another 5 billion years before the first ray would even reach us.
Iran’s leaders know good and well whose advice Drumpf was listening to, and it wasn’t Kegsbreath. It was Netanyahoo. Iran’s leaders are well aware that Bibi wanted a war with the Islamic Republic but was too scared to take on Iran alone but no one else in the region wanted to help. Israel’s Sunni Muslim neighbors (Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia–though the Saudis are a more puritanical form of Sunni) absolutely loathe Iran’s Shiite government but they’re not going to do anything against Iran since Iran’s proxies can still cause major problems against them and their allies. As for the Gulf States which have “normalized” relations with Israel, they’re still a might peeved at Bibi’s continuing genocide in Gaza and the continuing assaults on Palestinians in the West Bank (by Israeli settlers, with Bibi’s full backing–at least, privately; Bibi will put on a public show of “don’t do that” while giving the settlers the old “keep up the good work”). As for Europe, they had zero interest in a fight with Iran; to them, everything had been settled until Drumpf decided to tear up Obama’s deal with Iran a decade ago but Iran had largely been abiding by the deal and sanctions were still working for them. Russia and China weren’t going to help Israel against Iran; Russia had largely become as much of a pariah state as Iran and you know that saying about birds of a feather while China still relied on Iranian oil (even as the country has been doing more green energy with solar panels, wind and hydro power). So, that left the one country with a leader who could be easily manipulated into attacking Iran and even getting that leader to believe the whole thing was HIS idea.
Also, there is the little matter that Drumpf was the one who picked Kegsbreath in the first place and, even when he saw the nomination was in trouble and had to send in Vance to get Kegsbreath confirmed. If Drumpf fires Kegsbreath, then Drumpf is forced to admit he *made a mistake in judgment* and his ego will NOT allow that. No. Kegsbreath is going to have to be forced to resign and he’s not going to go easily. The man has no legitimate prospects for any kind of a job once he’s out as Secretary of Defense (I really don’t see any of the most right-wing propaganda MAGA-boosting media outlets offering him a job). So, Drumpf is going to have to make Kegsbreath’s resignation worth it–probably something in the lower 8-figure range (probably a minimum of $25-30 million) so that he can flee the country preferably somewhere that won’t turn him over to the International Criminal Court for war crimes though a large number of those countries don’t seem like they’d be amenable to hosting him–though, maybe Russia would work (just imagine the secrets that Kegsbreath could hand over to Putin as an incentive; of course, Kegsbreath could easily find himself falling out of a 5th story window or developing radiation poisoning after Putin’s gotten everything from old Petey-boy).
“…odds of Trump looking coldly and practically at both of these problems …are between slim and none.”
[spoken in a cowboy accent]… and Slim just left town on the 6 o’clock stage!