Yes, Iran is sending signals they’d like the war to end. I’m not celebrating nor am I very hopeful we might see a resolution because Trump might once again be too stupid to take an off-ramp even if one truly develops. Still, I don’t think Iran would be sending out signals it’s ready to get serious about negotiating an end to this war if they weren’t serious. So let’s look at things and see what’s suddenly on the table, why, and whether Trump is convinced there’s political value for both him and the GOP in reaching a peace agreement.
Let’s start with what’s being reported by The National Security Journal. Their article opens by saying Iran is preparing a ‘devastating response’ to Trump’s threats of new economic sanctions it’s leadership is at the same time calling for peace:
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Friday, August 21, that the nearly six-month conflict should be brought to an end while Tehran can still negotiate from what he described as a “position of power.” At almost the same time, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the chief negotiator in mediated talks with Washington, issued one of his strongest warnings yet about the economic consequences of continuing the conflict with the United States.
I had a long, phone battery draining chat with my cousin who is a retired diplomat earlier this evening. The middle east isn’t his area of expertise but early in his career prior to joining the State Department he did NGO work in Africa and has relevant general knowledge. He’s worried about how the gutting of the State Department will make it even more difficult to work not just with Iran but other countries in the region to work out something everyone can live with. He also noted how we’ve blown chances in the past to if not normalize relations with Iran we could have at least develop ‘unofficial working relations’ with them. He even cited a time during Bush 43 when Iran allowed overflights because they also wanted the Taliban in Afghanistan taken out. Then Baby Bush blew it!
I added in something he hadn’t considered but is relevant here. Despite his decades of promoting himself as a wheeler-dealer businessman Trump has proven long before entering politics he doesn’t have the intellectual capacity to negotiate “group deals.” Anything more than one-on-one is beyond his capability. It’s why in both terms he’s ignored or torn up agreements/treaties and wants us out of NATO which of course is multi-national and requires dealing with a lot of constantly moving parts.
That brings us to ending the war with Iran which is going to require getting other countries on board. The plain fact is that until Trump started this war Iran had never ‘crossed the Rubicon’ by closing the vital Strait of Hormuz. One could argue they’ve paid a price and they have in the short-term but look at the long-term. Iran will if it plays its hand well wind up getting compensation for the Strait being as open to safe passage as it was before. It’s just a question of how much. But there’s another even larger issue the world is going to have to contend with. Iran just threatening to shut down the Strait will rattle world markets! In the end Trump has made Iran more powerful. That doesn’t mean they will rejoin the international community but they WILL be more of a force than they were before.
Iran has gotten something it never expected due to Trump – and Netanyahu who egged Trump into starting the war. It will have more influence in world affairs. That’s a fact everyone is going to have to accept. For Iran, as the linked article notes they are thinking at the moment their negotiating position is as strong as it’s going to get. Powerful leaders, at least civilian ones in Tehran now seemingly think they’ve gotten as much leverage as they’ll get – waiting or allowing the war to continue could leave them in a weaker position during negotiations. In calling for an end to the war talked about what I’ve covered – that they should end things from a “position of strength”, saying “It would be better to end the war today, when we have power and dignity, and with the whole world acknowledging our victory.”
He also described a scenario in which Iran may agree to end the conflict, but framed it not as a surrender but as an opportunity to end it before the economic and human costs become even greater. He said that Iran could currently claim that it had withstood months of American military pressure while maintaining its ability to strike back and continue disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
This appears aimed at hardliners within his own country who oppose any deal with Washington. Let’s be clear – the Revolutionary Guard holds a lot of power. However Iran’s civilian leaders clearly believe a new round of economic sanctions aren’t worth having to deal with. How much they might get for allowing safe passage through the Strait is a point to be negotiated but again I’ll say they got something they never expected which is leverage in the form of just threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz.
Now let’s look at things from Trump’s point of view. He’s had chances to settle this war but knew part of it would be agreeing to a nuclear deal like the one he tore up. He doesn’t want people trashing him for ‘settling’ for what Obama got from Iran. So there’s that. Then there’s the issue of Iran getting compensation in the form of tolls or other agreements to allow safe passage through the Strait. HE won’t get a cut of that and that folks offends him in a way that can’t be put into words.
However the biggest obstacle any peace treaty faces is Trump failed in every one of the shifting objectives he kept citing as reasons for starting the war. An Iran that not only hasn’t been driven into submission but is actually going to wind up stronger once the dust settles is something he knows will get talked about. Some will say he entered us into a war we LOST. At best the narrative will be that Iran has more clout in the world than it did before and that wouldn’t be the case if Trump hadn’t started his war. Do YOU think Trump will accept that? I sure as hell don’t. Not without one helluva fight here at home.
In the end we should be glad that (some) leaders on one side at least are willing to publicly say it’s time to end this. However they have plenty of work to do to convince some powerful people in Iran that they’ve gotten all they’re going to get, that it’s more than they thought possible and that it’s best to negotiate a peace where they can dictate some of the terms. On our side we have Trump and his ego. Over here in the U.S. plenty of people including in Trump’s Party want this over but OUR problem is the trouble they will have convincing Trump to swallow at least part of a sh!t sandwich of a peace that leave Iran better off and with more clout in world affairs than it had before.
The one cause for more than a minor amount of hope is the upcoming midterms. The GOP is in trouble and I’d say odds are 50-50 we will take over control of the Senate. A lot of Republicans, even MAGAs are upset with Trump over this war. It would be complete bullshit for him to declare a massive “win”, that he’s “crushed Iran” etc. but MAGAs will eat it up and it would provide some cover for GOP candidates in tough races all over the country. It comes down to whether internal GOP polling shows what I think it does, and Trump is so fearful of Democrats controlling the Senate as well as the House that he finally takes this particular off-ramp.
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