This column originally appeared in Rawstory
Many of us have spent years convincing first ourselves and then long-suffering readers that President Donald Trump was one scandal away, one slip of the tongue, one fall on Air Force One, one essential predicate from ouster based on a buffet of underlying reasons, any one of which would take down a normal president.
Fair warning, but here comes another prediction, (And some credit is due, the prediction that something bad could go wrong on UFC fight night came true, the “Michelle Obama is a man” comment hit moderates hard), but this prediction promises something different, something both new and tangible – actually, a few somethings.
Everyone lumped within a certain Gen-X demographic forever remains conversant in School House Rock and thus knows that 3 Is a Magic Number. But it will be more physics, along with some magic, as we watch three waves conjoin into the long-feared and impossible to predict rogue wave, the type that really does sink ships. Three waves of varying degrees, all meeting at the right time and place, and destined to do so during a long-predicted summer storm.
Your doubts and natural cynicism are noted and well-founded. But let your cool-factor abate momentarily because these three waves approach with elegant timing.
From the left, port side, horizon, comes the most obvious: an economy on the brink. And as much as we may wish that such pain was unnecessary, this column has long noted that a broken economy not only changes everything but has become tragically necessary, especially when dealing with someone who assumes a clean getaway after shooting someone on Fifth Ave.
A second wave comes from aft and will catch Trump no matter how hard he steams ahead. His increasing age and frailty are now media staples; even the conceirge analysts at Fox News no longer try to hide the concerns. Ironically, Trump himself put his age front and center during his UFC fight “national event” on his 80th birthday.
Yes, yes, fine. You have every reason to clap back: “Thanks. Give us something new because those issues have been hanging around for a while now.”
Fair enough. We move to issue three, creating the magic number and thus conditions, and the underlying basis for a nation about to go rogue, this one headed from the starboard right, the political right.
The red brigade in Congress has largely had it with Trump as he increasingly transforms into a liability and, even more importantly, they seem less afraid to talk about it. The irony is as delicious as pizza when noting that the man almost solely responsible for MAGA’s rise now weighs it down as an anchor.
The divergence of the hard right political force is real and intensifying. Whereas members in the Senate and Congress once needed Trump at least as much as he needed them, not only is that need gone, but turning into a headwind. Trump surely feels invulnerable, probably having “run” his last election, he dedicates the entirety of his effort toward enriching himself financially and engraving his greatness in our nation’s monuments.
Note the fantastic reporting on this very site on Congress seeing Trump himself as having gone rogue. A quote from a senior GOP staffer in the Senate:
“People are p— the f— off that prices are too high and things are too expensive. I’m just not sure the president really cares or if he’s really in tune with what’s going on on Capitol Hill.”
So naive it all but hopscotches to adorable. One wants to gently whisper as you would give an eight-year-old bad news, “Hey? He never cared about Capitol Hill or its dynamic; he cared about himself, and to the extent he needed you to further himself, he cared about how you did it.”
Trump no longer needs them on Capitol Hill. He no longer needs their legislation, nor their protection. He figures he’s untouchable. And it’s not like he keeps his priorities a secret: ballrooms, UFC birthdays, insider trading, pardons for rich guys (Wonder why?), getting in and out of wars, he obviously spends precious little worry about his precious red Congress, less about affordability, more about all he can now afford.
They say that Trump has personally made two billion dollars since being elected, likely doubling his previous net worth. It would be hard to overstate just how little he cares about the fact that you can walk out of a grocery store carrying two small bags and one less $100 bill.
But it’s just that sort of arrogance coupled with a self-satisfied attitude that will trip him up because – don’t doubt, he is not invulnerable, seemingly all-powerful dictators have fallen before, and when it happens, it often happens, it can often come with blinding speed. Oh, and the problems usually start within, and among the loyalists the leader took for granted.
Those loyalists on Capitol Hill appear to be seething:
“Between the Pulte nominations and anti-weaponization fund, the White House has definitely gone rogue and instead pushed priorities without talking to Congressional leadership,” … bringing up that Trump hasn’t even seemed to consult Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD).
“We’re begging the White House to focus on issues to help Republicans in the midterms. But it feels like it’s falling on deaf ears.”
Right.
Not deaf so much as distracted. If newly minted trillionaire Elon Musk called, Trump would be all ears, discerning everything. The staffer did hit it right in noticing that the priorities have diverged. Yes, yes, Trump was always in it for himself, of course. But there was a time when he needed those in Congress far more, even those red-hatted wonders at rallies, all filling a need.
Now his needs have narrowed to legacy and looting. Anyone who thinks that the $1.776B slush fund wouldn’t come with a finder’s fee going into his pocket needs their education examined, and the portion that prohibits the IRS or DOJ from prosecuting or even investigating his tax issue is said to be worth $100 million in back taxes avoided.
Looting is working lovely.
And legacy? How about that ballroom? There is likely no issue that bothers the Republican caucus in Congress more than Trump’s obsession with his ballroom.
Now, imagine being a purple Republican congress critter on the campaign trail facing a famer who tills up this question: “What are you doing about a war in Iran that has pushed my ferlizer costs up 60%, diesel for my combine up 50%, groceries up in ways I can’t count, and all I hear the president talking about is that the war will end next week and the ballroom?”
Damn.
Next person up mentions that they want to build a data center in what had been reserved parkland just outside the city, guaranteed to dirty the water, be noisy, and drive up electric rates 50%. The Congressman knows he has to defend an inauguration picture with Trump, Musk, Bezos, and Zuckerberg.
And that’s when our Congressman/woman gets pretty angry about the record to defend, enough to start talking about it – out loud, and in public, just as we see above. And that’s different, that’s the wave that creates the crash over the bow.
Take all three factors, and it’s enough to bring him down. But please hold off the bombs in the comments because I’m not talking about impeachment, I’m talking about possible resignation.
No doubt, Trump loves the trappings of being president: that cool helicopter, everyone calls him “Sir,” he likes to bomb people, he likes the money, all that. But if and when the GOP starts to turn hard on him, which, set aside the cool-factor momentarily, if the GOP turns, suddenly the presidency is nowhere near as much fun. Picture a new Congress asking tough Epstein questions, with Republicans increasingly wanting to know why they’re left to come up with excuses.
Trump – the man always in it for himself- sees real trouble on the horizon with fewer friends to batten down the hatches. Perhaps he uses a convenient medical issue as a graceful exit. “For the good of the country.” How big of him, a martyr to the end. Red tears, “He always put the country first.”
And that’s what it really gets down to, right? Three things are coming together at the perfect time; the presidency isn’t fun anymore. An economy nose-diving and all the fury that goes with it, advanced age he can no longer hide, cankles, bruising, a cognitive catastrophe as certainty, and his soldiers on Capitol Hill no longer following orders. Three things, each critical, and three is a magic number.
Magic enough to create a rogue wave of the type that sinks even the unsinkable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEcjFRB-1C4
Jason Miciak is a Rawstory Columnist, former Editor at Occupy Democrats, a political consultant, attorney, author, and single parent girldad. Follow him on Bluesky, and he can be reached at [email protected].
I certainly hope you are right. These things do seem unavoidable and it fits his pattern to take the easy out.