Kash Patel may have rounded the bend. He was in an even match following Tulsi Gabbard, and then Gabbard’s termination did not occur. Now he’s leading the termination pack ahead of RFK, Jr. and on a par with Howard Lutnick. Here are the odds on Patel, Lutnick, and a special election in Virginia.
On Tuesday, a special election in Virginia could allow Democrats to enact a redistricting measure that would net them as many as four House seats in this fall’s midterm elections.
If the referendum passes, Olivia Troye — a former adviser to Vice President Mike Pence — said she would run for Congress as a Democrat in Virginia’s proposed new 7th District.
BetOnline.ag has set odds on the measure passing and the numbers heavily favor it happening. Here are the numbers:
Will Virginia Redistricting Amendment pass?
Yes -1000
No +550
(Odds equate to a 91% implied probability measure will pass)
By what margin will the redistricting amendment in Virginia pass?
Over/Under 7%
In other political odds news, Kash Patel and Howard Lutnick are seeing their chances of hanging around as members of Trump’s circle quickly diminish.
The Atlantic article titled “The FBI Director Is MIA,” has pushed people to bet against Patel, and Lutnick’s upcoming testimony to Congress about Jeffrey Epstein has bettors banking against his future.
Interestingly, Patel, Lutnick, Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard are all favored to leave their posts before 2027.
Here are all the current Trump admin odds and changes:
Will Kash Patel leave position before 2027?
Yes -900
No +500
(Odds on April 13 were Yes -250, No +170)
Will Howard Lutnick leave position before 2027?
Yes -200
No +150
(Odds on April 13 were Yes +110, No -150)
Will Pete Hegseth leave position before 2027?
Yes -130
No -110
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave position before 2027?
Yes -165
No +125
Will Robert Kennedy Jr. leave position before 2027?
Yes +200
No -300
Will Marco Rubio leave position before 2027?
Yes +500
No -900
Will Markwayne Mullin leave position before 2027?
Yes +1000
No -4000
Politician exit date odds can be seen here:Â https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/politics-futures/exit-dates
Remember, the template for this new regime is to find another exciting job for the person being fired. In Pam Bondi’s case that was a job in the private sector. I will be intrigued to know what Trump will find for Kash Patel.
I’m struggling to suggest what Drunk Kash would be best suited for in the rest of the world.
Crash test dummy?
Probably not smart enough.
interesting contrast. kash is suing the atlantic for a quarter billion. if it were trump they’ed settle. with kash they stand by their reporting and will fight it. hope he has the money to pay his lawyer.