Once again I begin to rethink my life. I think that I should have long ago had a lobotomy and then run for politics on the Republican ticket. Being a moron is no bar to success if you’re a Republican. You will love hearing this character straight out of a Tennessee Williams script, Earle LeRoy “Buddy” Carter, a state senator from the Peach Tree State. Or was that petri as in dish state? Anyhow, Trump’s Buddy wants him to have the Nobel Peace Prize really bad and here’s what he’s aiming to do to achieve that.

Sorry, buddy boy, that ship has sailed, at least until next year. And frankly, with all the misery and pain Trump is causing in his own country via the machinations of ICE, I frankly doubt that the Nobel Committee is going to roll over and go wild for what will probably be another temporary cease fire in the Middle East.

And the irony of the Middle East cease fire is that Trump fully intends to build hotels. Josh Marshall had a great take on this in yesterday’s newsletter.

I don’t think Trump expended any great amount of energy over this and I don’t think he really cares greatly about any of the people on either side of the conflict. Let’s remember that a few months ago he backed a plan to “voluntarily” depopulate Gaza and remake it as a series of mediterranean resorts, sort of Monaco only 150 times the size.

The key here is Trump’s extremely close relationships with the Gulf princes and his relationship with Israel and the Israeli right, especially Benjamin Netanyahu. The first (the relationship with the princes) is based on a mutual love of authoritarianism and corruption. More generously we might say it’s a shared vision of the future of the global economy and billionairedom — stated succinctly, the billionaires run the world. But for Trump, specifically, it’s about corruption. He and his family have now become genuine high rollers because of those relationships, which are all based on his political power in the United States. He monetized MAGA and made himself the billionaire he always dreamed of being.

That’s all very dark. But for the moment let’s set that aside. Because for present purposes the origins and bases of the relationship matter much less than the reality of it. Trump cares very, very much about what the princes want and what they think. They are also very dependent on the international system and the kind of U.S. government Trump is trying to create. He wants what they want. And they need to want what he wants. Not only was Joe Biden never in anything remotely like this position with the Gulf princes. No previous US president was either. The bond of authoritarianism and corruption was not there. The kind of U.S. government where this could be possible did not exist.

Now to Israel.

Donald Trump is very popular in Israel, has been really from the start. It’s not just the Israeli far right. Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are also deeply bound together by bonds of authoritarianism and other more personal binding relationships. Corruption and business play a role but nowhere near to the degree as with the Gulf princes. The real key, however, is that Netanyahu has made the whole U.S.-Israel alliance about the relationship with Trump. During the first Trump administration, that may still have been Trump and the GOP. But now Trump is the GOP. In the early 90s when George H.W. Bush held up loan guarantees for Israel, Israel had at least as many friends among Democrats. That is, obviously, no longer the case. The popularity of Israel is at best mixed among Democrats. And Netanyahu is kryptonite.

What all of the above amounts to is that Netanyahu cannot say no to anything Trump demands. Full stop. That sounds like a big statement. But it is 100% true. Add to this that the Israeli public has wanted this to be over for a long time. There’s simply no force for Netanyahu to fall back on. He can’t say no to Trump when Trump says he has to have something.

Why does Trump want to do it? Probably a mix of his Gulf prince buddies want it bad and he thinks he’ll get a Nobel Prize. In other words, reasons that are stupid and slimy.

“Credit” is a funny word. Do I give Trump credit for this? I’d say this. Because of those relationships, Trump is in a unique position to do this. Only he can force the hands of both groups, to the extent they need to be forced. He can do it. He is doing it. And I’m glad he’s doing it.

Needless to say, this is a “first stage” of this process. It could all fall apart. This is a region in which these things routinely fall apart. But I suspect that at least in terms of freeing the hostages, ending Israel’s military activity within Gaza and opening up the gates of humanitarian and reconstruction aid, it will succeed. The final or implemented version of the agreement isn’t great but we could do so much worse. And indeed we have done worse. But even with what amounts to putting Gaza not under a League of Nations or UN mandate but rather a kind of Trump mandate there are reasons for some hope.

And yes, we’ve all heard how this is going to be different this time, how Gaza is going to now be run by a police force of Egyptian and Saudi (et al.) nationals, and because of that, Israel is not going to be able to conduct military operations inside Gaza. Sounds hopeful, does it not? Plus, if the interim authority can disarm Hamas and other groups and prevent terror operations from being run from Gaza, Israel also won’t need to, or won’t be justified in doing so. That is one hell of a big IF. Color me cynical, I will believe it when I see it.

Meanwhile, back to where we started, I don’t foresee a Nobel Peace Prize in Donald Trump’s future. Not this year, not any year. But I’m banking on the Nobel Committee being incorruptible. Because if they’re not incorruptible, Trump will make every effort to corrupt them to get what he needs.

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4 COMMENTS

  1. Here’s your prize…a cigarette and a blindfold for being the WORST TRAITOR IN THE 240 YEARS OF OUR REPUBLIC. Anyone who doesn’t accept THIS TRUTH can go take a flying phuck at a rolling doughnut. You are a member of a CULT. FACT.

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